NYDIG: Leverage Rather Than Spot Demand Drives Bitcoin, Value and Momentum Buyers Still on the Sidelines
According to the NYDIG research report (Author: Greg Cipolaro, July 10, 2026), Bitcoin fell 13.4% in the second quarter of 2026, with year-to-date losses expanding to 32.9%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index rose 27.7% and tech stocks surged 43.5% during the same period, indicating that this decline was not due to macro risk aversion, but rather Bitcoin-specific supply pressure.
The core pressure stems from Strategy (MSTR) launching the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," authorizing the sale of approximately $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to cover capital structure obligations, marking a shift of the largest historical marginal buyer from continuous accumulation to active monetization, and the DAT complex overall turning from a demand engine to a supply risk.
Regarding ETFs, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $4.9 billion in the second quarter, but the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust attracted $364.8 million in inflows against the trend, showing distribution channels remain competitive. Regarding the derivatives market, against the backdrop of weak spot demand and continuous outflows from ETFs and stablecoins, positive funding rates coupled with rising open interest indicate leveraged longs are rebuilding positions, posing a risk of passive liquidation triggering a new round of declines.
Bitcoin has currently fallen 54.3% cumulatively from the all-time high of $126,000 set on October 6, 2025; if referencing the 2018 and 2022 cycles (gradually narrowing declines of approximately 70%, approximately 370