News linked to both this project and an event.
According to BeInCrypto, Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl released a report using the "earnings per token" method to value Hyperliquid (HYPE). The report assumes Hyperliquid's 2027 earnings will be approximately $1 billion (an increase of about 20% compared to 2025), and expects the circulating supply at that time to reach 270 million to 310 million tokens, corresponding to earnings per token of approximately $3.25 to $3.75. Calculated at the current price of approximately $54, the forward P/E ratio is approximately 15 to 18 times, suggesting it still holds a valuation advantage compared to fintech stocks.
Grayscale stated HYPE's forward P/E ratio is approximately 15 to 18 times. Hyperliquid possesses real cash flow and can therefore be valued like a stock, but the valuation is based on earnings per token rather than earnings per share. Based on this, compared with fintech peers such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle, HYPE still appears inexpensive. Market data shows that HYPE is currently trading at $55.32, down 1.5% in the past 24 hours.
Odaily Bitcoin has been declining since October last year, with its current price hovering around half of its all-time high of $126,000, indicating the market remains in a deep bear phase. Multiple industry analysts believe the current pressure on Bitcoin stems primarily from three factors: the four-year cycle, macroeconomic inflationary pressures, and market leverage liquidations.Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, stated that Bitcoin's long-standing "four-year cycle" continues to influence investor psychology. Historically, Bitcoin typically undergoes approximately three years of an upward cycle followed by a one-year correction period. Investors have developed cyclical expectations and began reducing some long-term holdings towards the end of 2025.Additionally, the macroeconomic environment is a significant drag on Bitcoin. Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, pointed out that rising inflationary pressures in the US have weakened market expectations for interest rate cuts. Investors are shifting towards higher-yielding traditional assets, leading to capital outflows from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The short-term bottom is estimated to be around $58,000, with future trends still influenced by interest rate policies, corporate Bitcoin buying behavior, and progress in US crypto regulatory legislation.Excessive market leverage has also exacerbated this correction. As a large number of investors expanded their Bitcoin exposure through borrowing and financing during the bull market, derivatives open interest has declined as the market weakened. Digital asset treasury companies have also come under pressure. Strategy's stock price has fallen approximately 75% since October last year, and its previously promoted model of corporate Bitcoin accumulation is facing renewed market scrutiny.However, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects. Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares, predicts that Bitcoin may bottom out this summer, rebound after interest rates shift towards easing and geopolitical conflicts ease, with a year-end price target of $100,000. (Fortune)
Grayscale Research stated that Strategy sold a portion of Bitcoin last week, which may help reduce financing risk and support Bitcoin price stability. This sale of approximately $216 million increased its USD reserves, expected to cover dividend payment needs for approximately 17 months. Meanwhile, the STRC price rebounded, indicating investors reacted relatively positively to this decision.
Odaily Strategy's enterprise valuation has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, with its enterprise value to net asset multiple (mNAV) dropping below 1 for the first time, signaling a shift in the market's valuation logic for the company.Data shows that Strategy's current stock price is approximately $82, down about 85% from its all-time high in November 2024. Its enterprise value stands at around $50.4 billion, while the value of its Bitcoin holdings is approximately $51.1 billion (calculated at roughly $60,000 per Bitcoin). This means the market currently values the entire company at less than the value of the Bitcoin it holds.For a long time, the market valued Strategy significantly higher than its Bitcoin reserve, allowing the company to raise capital at a premium and continuously accumulate more Bitcoin. This model has been considered a key foundation of Michael Saylor's capital strategy. However, with the mNAV now below 1, raising capital through new equity issuance could potentially have a dilutive effect on existing shareholders.Analysts point out that this change makes Strategy's valuation structure more akin to a "closed-end fund," similar to the discount trading state observed in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust during different market cycles. Such structures typically lack effective arbitrage mechanisms, making it difficult for discounts or premiums to correct quickly.However, unlike traditional closed-end funds, Strategy still possesses a variety of capital instruments, including debt financing, equity financing, software business cash flow, and capital structure management. In theory, this provides a degree of flexibility to navigate market volatility. (CoinDesk)
According to CoinDesk, Goldman Sachs stated that U.S. IPO activity in 2026 doubled year-on-year, with approximately 50 companies having gone public and issuance volume reaching about $120 billion in dollar terms—matching the full-year record set in 2021. Ben Snider, Goldman Sachs’ Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, noted that this recovery is primarily driven by a wave of large-cap listings and financing demand tied to AI development—a “normal recovery” that remains fundamentally distinct from the speculative frenzy seen during the dot-com bubble. Currently, the average annual number of IPOs stands at roughly 100, far below the 250 IPOs in 2021 and the nearly 400 IPOs recorded at the peak of the 1999 bubble. Notably, crypto firms—including Payward (Kraken’s parent company), Consensys, Ledger, and Grayscale—have postponed or suspended their IPO plans amid market volatility and underwhelming post-listing performance. Meanwhile, high-profile AI- and tech-related IPOs such as SpaceX have successfully listed, drawing institutional capital away from the crypto market and into other sectors—exerting downward pressure on tokens and crypto-related stocks.
Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, released a research report stating that, based on multiple on-chain valuation metrics, Bitcoin’s current price is below its long-term average, indicating it is undervalued—though not to the same extent as previous cycle lows, such as those following the FTX collapse.
According to Finance Feeds, Grayscale is in talks with Hyper Holdings Global LP to sell its proposed Hyperliquid ETF shares in exchange for approximately 2 million HYPE tokens—valued at roughly $115 million at current prices—as seed capital ahead of the fund’s listing. Meanwhile, Grayscale has renamed the product the “Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF,” planning to list it on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol HYPG. The addition of staking functionality distinguishes it from spot ETFs that merely track token price performance.
10x Research posted an analysis on X, pointing out that as Bitcoin’s volatility continues to decline, the NAV premiums of most Bitcoin treasury companies have significantly contracted—some even turning into substantial discounts—resulting in visible losses for related investors. Historically, Grayscale’s GBTC briefly traded at a 47% discount in December 2022; at that time, investors could effectively buy Bitcoin through the product at an implied price below $10,000. The market had mistakenly viewed traditional finance–packaged crypto asset products as “Bitcoin leveraged tools.” In reality, these structures resemble options more closely: their implied value expands when volatility rises and contracts when volatility falls.