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According to GreeksLive, today 21,000 BTC options expire, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.66, maximum pain at $78,500, and notional value of $1.6 billion; 129,000 ETH options expire, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.92, maximum pain at $2,200, and notional value of $280 million. This week, BTC concluded a one-and-a-half-month rally amid muted market conditions; expiring BTC and ETH options each account for only ~5% of total open interest. BTC’s maximum pain level lies close to the current spot price, implying relatively strong gamma/pin risk; ETH’s expiry volume is half that of last week, and its current spot price sits below maximum pain—short-term implied volatility (IV) is highly likely to decline post-expiry. IV across all major maturities declined broadly: BTC IV fell below 35%, ETH IV fell below 50%, and the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) rose slightly. On the large-trade front, whales concentrated positions in bearish put spreads (5,000-lot 75K/71K puts expiring end-May), totaling nearly $200 million in notional value. Overall, volatility expectations remain low, and market activity falls short of expectations.
crypto analyst Murphy posted on platform X, stating that by combining three sets of data (Options Gamma Exposure, Options Open Interest by Strike Price, Options ATM Implied Volatility), the impact on BTC from an options perspective is as follows: $80,000 is the first effective resistance level above BTC’s current price. This level simultaneously features high Call OI, positive Gamma, and low IV. When the price pushes upward from this point, market makers' dynamic hedging tends to create selling pressure; the lower the IV, the higher the marginal sensitivity of market makers' hedging adjustments. Therefore, the thickness of this wall (OI of 7,200 BTC + the magnitude of positive Gamma) makes $80,000 a "tough nut to crack" in May. Once it breaks through and approaches $82,000, due to the presence of a larger scale of negative Gamma (OI of 4,644 BTC) at this level, the market could quickly shift from being suppressed to an "amplified volatility" mode.