News linked to both this project and an event.
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that on-chain data shows Bitcoin (BTC) is flowing into exchanges in large quantities, while stablecoin liquidity continues to flow out. The simultaneous deterioration on both the supply and demand sides of the market is considered a major reason for Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May highs.Furthermore, the Bitcoin 30-day net exchange flow indicator has turned notably positive, currently standing at around +114,000 BTC. Compared to the net outflow of approximately -85,000 to -115,000 BTC seen in early May, the market has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase. The indicator briefly rose to around +167,000 BTC in early June, indicating that more holders are transferring BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.At the same time, the 30-day moving average net flow of stablecoins remains consistently negative, currently at approximately -$105 million. In early May, this indicator was still in the range of +$40 million to +$90 million, representing relatively strong buy-side liquidity in the market. However, it turned negative after mid-May and expanded to around -$150 million to -$170 million in early June, indicating that stablecoin funds are leaving exchanges, reducing the market's "ammunition."Axel Adler's analysis suggests that the current market is experiencing a simultaneous combination of "increased BTC supply" and "declining stablecoin demand": on one hand, selling pressure is rising, and on the other, new buying power is insufficient. This has led to Bitcoin's pullback from its May highs and entry into a phase of declining risk appetite.For a trend reversal to materialize, the market needs to see simultaneous improvement in two indicators: BTC shifting back to net exchange outflows, signifying renewed accumulation by investors; and stablecoins re-entering exchanges, signaling the return of buying funds. Until these two indicators return to positive territory, any short-term rebound may be viewed more as a technical correction.
According to monitoring by Ai Yi, trader "Set 10 Big Goals" closed another 1,365.317 BTC long position 7 hours ago. To date, they have closed a total of 2,782.977 BTC in long positions, valued at approximately $205 million, with only 52.352 BTC remaining in open positions.Data shows that this BTC trade has generated a cumulative profit of about $9.895 million. Furthermore, as previously disclosed, on June 4th, one of their BTC long positions incurred a loss of $6.685 million, with the actual initial position size at that time being 3,072.127 BTC.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Tom Lee stated the recent market anxiety, including Strategy's small-scale Bitcoin sale, is typical bottoming behavior rather than a sign of deeper systemic issues. Michael Saylor sold 32 Bitcoins at an average price of $77,135, raising approximately $2.5 million to pay preferred stock dividends. This sale accounts for only 0.004% of the company's total Bitcoin holdings of over 843,700 BTC.Furthermore, regarding the 11 consecutive days of outflows totaling $3.4 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, Tom Lee believes capital outflows are a classic lagging indicator of market cycle resets. Bitmine's macro strategy remains unchanged; its plan to purchase 111,942 Ethereum for approximately $237 million is still in progress, bringing its total Ethereum holdings to nearly 5.4 million ETH. (coindesk)
SpaceX officially filed its IPO prospectus last week. However, CEO Elon Musk's recent social media posts detailing the company's computing power leasing agreement with Anthropic have shown clear discrepancies with the prospectus's content. The prospectus states the collaboration will last until 2029, with a monthly rent of $125 million; Musk claims the agreement is merely a 180-day short-term lease, with either party able to terminate the partnership with 90 days' notice.This divergence makes it difficult for investors to assess the company's valuation, and industry experts have raised questions about the standardization of information disclosure. Furthermore, analysts point out that the prospectus is missing several key data points. SpaceX is expected to go public on June 12. The company is currently valued at over one trillion dollars and continues to operate at a loss. (CNBC)
According to Lookonchain monitoring, Garrett Jin (@GarrettBullish), an agent of the “1011 insider whale,” has accumulated a total of 145,050 HYPE tokens over the past 4 days, worth approximately $9.05 million. He has also set a TWAP order to purchase an additional 39,940 HYPE tokens, valued at about $2.44 million.Furthermore, he currently holds 504.4 BTC long positions, with a position value of around $38.9 million; concurrently, he holds 57,460 ZEC short positions, with a position value of about $38 million. His overall floating loss currently stands at approximately $2.11 million.
Odaily Odaily News: A recent report released by Gate Research Institute, titled "Research and Backtesting Analysis of BTC Trading Framework Based on Multi-Agent LLM," points out that compared to a single LLM directly generating trading signals, the Multi-Agent LLM architecture more closely mirrors the research and investment process of real financial institutions. By leveraging collaboration and debate among analysts, researchers, traders, and risk control teams, it enhances the transparency and risk control capabilities of trading decisions. The research, based on the TradingAgents framework, constructs an AI trading system applicable to the crypto scenario for the BTC market, introducing multiple agent roles such as technical analysis, news analysis, sentiment analysis, and macro/on-chain analysis.Using BTC/USDT 1-hour data, the study conducted historical backtesting of the TradingAgents-BTC strategy. The results show that the strategy achieved a total return of +20.25% during the testing period, significantly outperforming the Buy & Hold strategy's -7.89% over the same period. Furthermore, its maximum drawdown was controlled at -17.41%, lower than the Buy & Hold's -27.06%. The research suggests that during periods of consolidation and decline, the multi-agent framework can reduce some risk exposure through Sell/Underweight and Flat states, and re-enter long positions during market rebounds, thereby improving overall risk-adjusted returns.The report indicates that the Multi-Agent LLM framework shows certain application potential in crypto trading scenarios. However, the current backtesting period covers only about three months, and 1-hour level trading may still be affected by transaction fees, slippage, and signal latency. Future work requires further validation of the strategy's stability and generalization capabilities over longer historical periods, different market conditions, and across a wider range of asset classes.
According to monitoring by crypto analyst Ai Yi @ai_9684xtpa, the "1011 whale who once suffered a $230 million liquidation" currently holds $2.49 million worth of HYPE spot, with an additional approximately $407,000 HYPE buy order pending.Furthermore, this address also holds $39.21 million worth of BTC long positions, and has opened a $1.26 million 3x leveraged ZEC short position. Meanwhile, it has placed approximately $1.22 million in ZEC limit sell orders in the price range of $653.58 to $661.4.
crypto research firm K33 stated that although Bitcoin has retested its 200-day moving average around $82,000 this month and subsequently fallen by about 6%, the low near $60,000 in February this year may still represent the maximum drawdown of this cycle. K33 Research Head Vetle Lunde pointed out that unlike the bear market rallies in 2014, 2018, and 2022, this market experienced a slow recovery lasting 189 days after breaking below the 200-day moving average. Furthermore, market leverage and risk appetite have not been quickly rebuilt. Therefore, the current trend resembles a moderate correction rather than a precursor to another sharp decline.K33 also noted that institutional fund flows still reflect a defensive sentiment. The latest 13F filings show that institutional investors reduced their holdings by a total of approximately 26,733 BTC in the first quarter, while retail investors increased their holdings by about 19,395 BTC. Neutral strategy institutions like Jane Street and Millennium accounted for most of this reduction. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded the ninth-largest five-day capital outflow since the launch of U.S. spot ETFs. K33 believes this typically occurs when BTC is near the cost basis of ETF holdings, reflecting investors' tendency to cut losses or reduce risk exposure after experiencing significant drawdowns. (The Block)
Goldman Sachs significantly reduced its crypto ETF exposure in the first quarter of 2026 and has completely exited its holdings in XRP and Solana-related ETFs.Filings show that in the fourth quarter of 2025, Goldman Sachs held approximately $154 million in XRP-related ETFs, including products from Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and 21Shares, making it one of the largest institutional holders of XRP ETFs at the time. Additionally, the firm previously held Solana-related ETFs such as the Grayscale Solana Trust ETF, Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, and Fidelity Solana Fund, all of which have now been fully sold off.However, Goldman Sachs still retains substantial holdings in BTC and ETH ETFs. Specifically, it holds approximately $690 million in BlackRock's IBIT and about $25 million in Fidelity's FBTC, though both positions were reduced by roughly 10% compared to the previous quarter. Meanwhile, its holding in BlackRock's ETHA shrank by about 70%, leaving approximately 7.2 million shares valued at around $114 million.Furthermore, Goldman Sachs increased its holdings in crypto-related stocks such as Circle, Galaxy Digital, Coinbase, Robinhood, and PayPal, while reducing positions in mining and infrastructure companies like Strategy, Bit Digital, Riot Platforms, and IREN. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily released the latest analysis chart indicating that Ethereum's recent price movements are increasingly dominated by ETF fund flows. Over the past year, the 30-day moving average of daily net inflows for ETH ETFs has been highly synchronized with ETH's price performance, showing a marked increase in Ethereum's sensitivity to institutional fund flows.BIT points out that one of Ethereum's current core narratives is its net staking yield of approximately 2.5%. However, against the backdrop of accelerating inflation again and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising above 4.6%, Ethereum's staking yield advantage is weakening compared to risk-free assets like U.S. Treasuries.Furthermore, ETF outflows from Ethereum have resumed since May. BIT believes that if this trend continues, Ethereum is likely to maintain a consolidation and range-bound trajectory.
crypto research firm 10x Research stated that since the release of US CPI data on May 13th, Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows exceeding $1 billion, reigniting "inflation trade" sentiment in the market. Market sentiment indicators have dropped from 87% to 45%. Meanwhile, long-term US Treasury yields continue to climb, with the 30-year yield rising to 5.12%. As inflation returns to the forefront of market focus, the crypto market is facing significant headwinds.Furthermore, 10x Research noted that its models have triggered bearish signals for Ethereum, and Bitcoin is currently testing the key support level of its 30-day moving average. A confirmed breakdown below this level could signal further momentum deterioration. The firm is closely watching the short-term bull/bear line at $79,125 and the major support level at $76,922, suggesting that the bottom for this cycle may have already formed.
Intesa Sanpaolo, Italy's largest bank, increased its crypto asset-related holdings from approximately $100 million at the end of 2025 to about $235 million in the first quarter of 2026.Specifically, the bank increased its holdings in the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF and BlackRock's IBIT, and allocated to Ethereum assets for the first time through BlackRock's iShares Staked Ethereum Trust, while also adding approximately $26 million in Grayscale XRP Trust ETF holdings.Furthermore, Intesa also established its first long call option position in IBIT and added 165,600 shares of BitGo stock, while liquidating its Bitmine-related positions. Its Solana-related allocations were significantly reduced, with holdings in the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF dropping from 266,300 shares to 2,817 shares.Reports indicate that Intesa has previously confirmed that these crypto assets are primarily used for proprietary trading. Last month, Ripple also announced that it would provide digital asset custody services for the bank. (Cointelegraph)
several sovereign wealth funds, universities, and traditional financial institutions have recently disclosed their 13F holdings for the first quarter of 2026.Among them, Mubadala, the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, increased its holdings in the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) from 12.7023 million shares to 14.7219 million shares. The newly added holdings are valued at over $90 million, bringing the total value of its position to nearly $660 million. Meanwhile, its subsidiary, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC), maintained its IBIT position unchanged at 8.2187 million shares, worth approximately $315.8 million.Regarding university funds, Harvard University's endowment fund held 3.0446 million shares of IBIT, valued at around $117 million, a reduction of about 43% compared to the end of 2025. Additionally, Harvard completely liquidated its position in the BlackRock Ethereum spot ETF, which was established last quarter and valued at approximately $86.8 million.Furthermore, Dartmouth College maintained its IBIT holdings unchanged and disclosed for the first time holding approximately 304,800 shares of the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, valued at around $3.67 million, making it one of the first university endowment funds to publicly allocate to a Solana-related ETF.On the traditional financial institution side, institutions such as the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and Barclays continued to increase or adjust their IBIT-related spot and options positions, while Hong Kong-based Laurore reduced its IBIT holdings from 8.7863 million shares to 6.8463 million shares. (The Block)
Bitget released its April 2026 transparency report, detailing the latest developments in its core businesses, including tokenized stocks, AI trading infrastructure, and IPO Prime. Data shows that in April, Bitget's average daily trading volume remained stable above $10 billion. According to DefiLlama statistics, its net inflow for the month reached $359.37 million, ranking second among centralized exchanges. Furthermore, Bitget secured the second position globally in stock perpetual futures market share for the first quarter.On the product ecosystem front, the adoption rate of AI trading tools such as GetAgent, GetClaw, Agent Hub, and Gracy AI continues to rise, empowering users with intelligent trading experiences through the UEX system. In terms of innovative products, Bitget launched IPO Prime, a subscription service for US stock IPOs, extending the product boundaries of UEX into the primary market. According to rwa.xyz data, its first-phase projects ranked third globally among tokenized private equity and VC assets.
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts noted in their latest report that ongoing DeFi security vulnerabilities and stagnant growth in total value locked (TVL) continue to constrain institutional enthusiasm for the DeFi sector. Recently, Kelp DAO’s cross-chain bridge suffered a major attack, during which the attacker minted $292 million worth of uncollateralized rsETH tokens and borrowed real ETH on Aave, resulting in approximately $230 million in bad debt. This caused DeFi TVL to evaporate by roughly $20 billion within several days. LayerZero and blockchain security researchers have attributed this attack to the North Korean hacker group Lazarus Group; some of the stolen funds have been frozen, while the rest remain in circulation. Analysts also pointed out that DeFi TVL denominated in ETH has remained range-bound for an extended period, raising market concerns about whether DeFi can achieve organic growth sufficient to support institutional adoption. Furthermore, following each security incident, users tend to shift funds into USDT as a safe-haven asset—yet this trend has not yet significantly driven USDT’s market capitalization growth.
discussions regarding the potential threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin's security have been reignited. Analyst James Check points out that while quantum computing could theoretically crack elliptic curve signatures, its market impact may be overestimated.Data shows that approximately 1.7 million BTC (about $145 billion) are stored in early "Satoshi-era" addresses. If private keys were compromised, this could create potential selling pressure. However, from a market liquidity perspective, this scale is not insurmountable: in a bull market, long-term holders typically sell between 10,000 and 30,000 BTC daily. This means the aforementioned volume is equivalent to 2 to 3 months of routine profit-taking.Additionally, the average monthly exchange inflow is about 850,000 BTC, and the notional trading volume in the derivatives market can cover this amount within just a few days. Historical data shows that during the most recent bear market, over 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter, far exceeding the scale of the potential "quantum risk," yet it did not trigger a systemic collapse.Analysis suggests that even with a concentrated release, it is more likely to cause periodic volatility rather than a structural shock. Furthermore, entities capable of acquiring such assets are more inclined to adopt strategies like phased selling and hedging to mitigate market impact.Overall, the core issue of the "quantum threat" may not be the selling pressure itself, but rather the governance-level response—such as whether to restrict the movement of assets from affected addresses through a protocol upgrade. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News: The U.S. Department of Justice disclosed that Carmine Agnello, the grandson of gangster John Gotti, was sentenced to 15 months in prison for fraudulently obtaining approximately $1.1 million in COVID-19 relief funds and investing part of the money into cryptocurrency businesses.Prosecutors stated that between April 2020 and November 2021, Agnello obtained multiple relief loans from the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) through false applications, claiming they were for the operation of his auto parts and recycling business. In reality, he diverted the funds for personal use, with about $420,000 invested in cryptocurrency-related investments.The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of New York said this conduct occurred during the peak of the pandemic and constituted a serious misuse of government aid funds. Agnello is expected to begin serving his prison sentence on July 1.Furthermore, official data shows that fraud related to U.S. pandemic relief funds is severe. The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimates that approximately $135 billion (about 15% of the total) flowed into fraudulent activities. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News SpaceX will hold a three-day closed-door analyst meeting in the United States this week to present its business and strategy to Wall Street institutions in preparation for a potential IPO. Informed sources stated that the company aims to raise approximately $75 billion, with a valuation potentially reaching $1.75 trillion, and plans to go public as early as June.The meeting will cover SpaceX's Starbase launch site in Texas and its data center project in Tennessee. Participating analysts are required to surrender electronic devices to ensure information confidentiality. This roadshow is a key part of the IPO process, and subsequent model explanation meetings will be held to further disclose financial and growth expectations.Furthermore, the company plans to reserve approximately 30% of its shares for retail investors and expand into global markets. Several Wall Street investment banks have already participated in underwriting arrangements. (Reuters)