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BIT tweeted that Strategy’s buying momentum may weaken. However, despite the market’s current widespread focus on Strategy in the crypto space, two principles remain paramount: “trade with the trend” and “follow the money.” When liquidity reverses, it typically signals a shift in the market environment—making premature bottom-fishing highly risky.
According to The Block, Bitcoin fell nearly to $72,000 on Monday. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $2.97 billion. For the week ending May 25–29, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw weekly outflows of $1.42 billion, while global cryptocurrency ETPs recorded $1.67 billion in outflows during the same period.
Odaily News “1011 Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin pointed out in his latest market commentary that, against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively “blockaded” for three months. However, the market has already become “desensitized” to this geopolitical risk, and the AI narrative is reshaping traditional risk pricing logic. As a result, AI is significantly weakening the market's sensitivity to oil prices and geopolitical shocks. Since the emergence of ceasefire signals, U.S. stocks have “decoupled” from energy shocks, with gains in chip and tech stocks offsetting the impact from the energy sector, leading the market to gradually overlook the Strait of Hormuz risk. Nevertheless, he cautioned that the AI sector faces short-term risks of overvaluation and crowded trades, and a pullback could occur at any time.In the energy market, the earlier assessment that the Strait of Hormuz risk had not been fully priced in has proven correct. Oil prices had risen due to supply shock expectations, but peaked and then declined following the release of strategic reserves and the U.S. intervention as a “supplier of last resort.” A successful exit was achieved on April 29-30. He believes the current risk-reward ratio for oil prices is no longer attractive.On the macro and equity market front, U.S. households' holdings of stocks as a percentage of financial assets have reached approximately 47%, surpassing the level seen during the internet bubble era. This means a market downturn would, in turn, constrain policy. The VIX volatility index triggered different policy shift thresholds around 30 and 50, reflecting a “risk-off driven policy” characteristic.In the gold market, the recent pullback in gold is not due to the fading of a war premium but rather changes in long-term structural demand. Since 2022, central banks globally have been purchasing gold at an average annual rate of over a thousand tons, primarily for de-dollarization and hedging against sanctions risks. He defines gold as “an ultimate exit tool outside the dollar system” rather than a mere safe-haven asset.In the crypto market, the liquidity inflection point occurred last October, with funds flowing more toward AI assets, leading to a periodic drain from the crypto market. However, he believes the market is currently in a cyclical bear phase. Rebound rallies exist, but they do not equate to the start of a new bull run. The market must wait for liquidity to restart in a new cycle. The AI era is emerging as the dominant capital narrative. Even if a bubble exists, the structural opportunities it brings represent “a rare window of opportunity for ordinary investors.” Nevertheless, market cycle discipline should not be overlooked.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macroeconomic environment. This is a significant signal, suggesting the market is currently more in a "Risk-off" phase. Until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero line, every BTC rebound still lacks confirmation.He pointed out that the recently published fourth part of his "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" focuses on building a macro framework based on the US Dollar Index (DXY), the 10-year US Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index. The core argument is that not all macro fluctuations will disrupt the on-chain structure, but when macro factors truly enter "dominant mode," the market may temporarily lose upward momentum even if on-chain data is positive.Additionally, CryptoQuant added a dashboard for US spot Bitcoin ETFs this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flow, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, demand changes over the past four weeks, and capital distribution among various funds. Currently, the 30-day momentum of the ETF stands at just $362.8 million, whereas this indicator reached a high of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and hit a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains a crucial indicator for observing US spot demand. When the index stays consistently above zero, it indicates that US buying is still supporting the market. If it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its upward trend may lack genuine US demand support.
According to Decrypt, Dapper Labs has halted new primary NFT minting on its NFL All Day platform, though existing digital collectibles remain available for buying and selling on the platform’s marketplace. Roham Gharegozlou, CEO of Dapper Labs and co-founder of Flow, stated that the company has signed a new licensing agreement with the NFL, and further details will be announced as the new season approaches. Meanwhile, the platform will introduce a “Founding Collector” badge for collectors, along with a 5% Dapper balance rebate for qualifying purchases. Following the announcement, secondary-market trading volume on NFL All Day increased, and collector feedback and sell-off activity rose.
Odaily Odaily News Gate Research recently released its "April 2026 Cryptocurrency Market Review" report, indicating that the overall cryptocurrency market saw a volatile upward trend in April, with total market capitalization significantly higher than in March. BTC and ETH ETF trading volumes maintained high volatility overall. The report shows continued divergence in activity across major public chain ecosystems. Solana's daily transaction volume remained in the range of approximately 90 million to 110 million transactions, maintaining its leading position.Regarding trending sectors, the report notes that Pokemon TCG RWA has become one of the fastest-growing on-chain RWA sub-sectors, entering a second explosive growth phase in April. Major trading platforms saw monthly trading volumes exceed $220 million, with weekly revenue briefly approaching $6 million, setting new historical records. Meanwhile, Aave experienced its most severe liquidity crisis ever in April, with TVL outflows reaching tens of billions of dollars within a few days and net outflows exceeding $9 billion for the entire month.In terms of fundraising and security incidents, the Web3 industry completed 51 financing rounds in April, totaling approximately $834 million, with capital further concentrating on leading financial and infrastructure tracks. Among these, Payward ranked first for the month with a $200 million financing round. On the security front, Web3 security incidents in April resulted in losses of approximately $306 million, a month-over-month increase of about 858%, primarily driven by a single cross-chain infrastructure attack on Kelp DAO worth approximately $293 million. The report suggests that against the backdrop of a recovering market, on-chain activity and capital liquidity are both increasing simultaneously. However, the security risks associated with cross-chain infrastructure and high-leverage protocols remain worthy of continued attention.
According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. (@AxelAdlerJr), the Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse has surged 136% from its March low. Its 7-day moving average has crossed above its 30-day moving average for the first time in several months, signaling that the flow mechanism is shifting back toward a risk-on mode—though one indicator has yet to confirm this shift.
According to QCP Group, U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed over the weekend, sending oil prices back above $100 per barrel and triggering a broad market shift toward risk aversion. BTC encountered resistance at $74,000, while ETH pulled back from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports; Iran countered with threats targeting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, further widening risk exposure. China, as a major importer of Iranian crude oil, sits at the center of this crisis. Should the blockade be implemented, U.S.-China confrontation risks would rise significantly—a scenario not yet fully priced into markets. Nevertheless, the crypto market has demonstrated notable resilience: implied volatility and risk-reversal indicators have both retreated to pre-conflict levels, signaling waning panic. BlackRock’s IBIT recorded net inflows of $612.1 million over the past week, reflecting continued institutional buying momentum. Market focus has now shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details: Trump announced the blockade will commence at 10 a.m. ET—yet repeated delays have rendered policy credibility itself a tradable variable.