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Prediction market Kalshi's trading volume surges to $24.2 billion during World Cup
: U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi experienced explosive growth during the 2026 World Cup, with platform trading volume soaring from $6.67 billion on June 22 to $24.2 billion on July 14. The single "World Cup Champion" prediction market saw trading volume exceed $1.2 billion. Kalshi stated that its growth reflects a new trend in the AI era: as the volume of AI-generated content increases substantially, authentic, real-time, and non-replicable human interaction scenarios are becoming scarcer, positioning prediction markets as a novel tool for observing public sentiment and collective judgment.Meanwhile, Kalshi is seeking to transform from a sports prediction platform into the next-generation financial trading infrastructure. The company currently holds Designated Contract Market (DCM) status recognized by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and plans to expand into more prediction areas including sports, geopolitics, culture, and economics. (Fortune)
Kraken’s parent company completes acquisition of Bitnomial, expanding its presence in the U.S. crypto derivatives market
According to The Block, Payward, Kraken’s parent company, has announced the completion of its acquisition of Chicago-based crypto-native exchange Bitnomial, thereby obtaining a full suite of U.S. derivatives licenses from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), including Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), Designated Contract Market (DCM), and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) licenses. Payward stated that it will first launch spot margin trading on Kraken, followed by perpetual contracts and options products, all available to eligible U.S. customers. This acquisition will also provide partners—including banks, brokers, and payment service providers—with a channel to offer U.S. derivatives to their end customers. Bitnomial will operate independently under Payward while retaining its existing licenses and regulatory framework. The transaction’s value is reported to be up to $550 million, comprising cash and stock, implying a valuation for Payward of approximately $20 billion; however, the final terms have not been disclosed.
Kraken’s parent company Payward acquires derivatives exchange Bitnomial for up to $550 million
According to CoinDesk, Payward, Kraken’s parent company, announced the acquisition of digital asset derivatives platform Bitnomial for up to $550 million in cash and stock. The deal values Payward at approximately $20 billion. Bitnomial is the first crypto-native platform in the U.S. to hold all three key regulatory licenses: a Designated Contract Market (DCM), a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), and a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM). Following the acquisition, Payward will instantly obtain all regulatory authorizations required to operate a full derivatives business in the U.S., significantly accelerating its path to compliance compared to building such capabilities organically. Post-integration, the combined platforms will launch spot margin, perpetual futures, and options products for U.S. customers. Through Payward Services’ B2B infrastructure, these regulated U.S. derivatives offerings will be made available to banks, fintech firms, and brokers via a single API. This acquisition marks Payward’s second major deal following its $1.5 billion acquisition of NinjaTrader in 2025. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026.
Kalshi and Polymarket Combined Trading Volume Exceeds $44 Billion in 2025
Kalshi and Polymarket processed a combined trading volume of over $44 billion in 2025. As of April 2026, the monthly trading volume on the two platforms has risen to $24 billion, surpassing the average monthly betting volume of legal sports platforms in the United States. Kalshi reported $263.5 million in fee revenue last year, with its annualized revenue exceeding $1.5 billion since then. Prediction markets operate on a binary contract exchange model, where the platform matches buyers and sellers without placing bets, holding positions, or bearing the risk of event outcomes. Its primary revenue comes from transaction fees, with additional revenue sources including data licensing, API access for institutional traders, and, in some cases, market creation fees on the platform. In the U.S. market, Kalshi is a Designated Contract Market (DCM) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket re-entered the U.S. market at the end of 2025 by acquiring the CFTC-regulated QCEX for $112 million. Some states still classify prediction market contracts as gambling, and related federal and state-level lawsuits remain ongoing. The European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) does not directly define the attributes of prediction market contracts, and classification varies among member states. If a platform uses crypto settlement and provides custody or transfer services to EU users, it must also obtain a license as a Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP).
Prediction market Kalshi's trading volume surges to $24.2 billion during World Cup
: U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi experienced explosive growth during the 2026 World Cup, with platform trading volume soaring from $6.67 billion on June 22 to $24.2 billion on July 14. The single "World Cup Champion" prediction market saw trading volume exceed $1.2 billion. Kalshi stated that its growth reflects a new trend in the AI era: as the volume of AI-generated content increases substantially, authentic, real-time, and non-replicable human interaction scenarios are becoming scarcer, positioning prediction markets as a novel tool for observing public sentiment and collective judgment.Meanwhile, Kalshi is seeking to transform from a sports prediction platform into the next-generation financial trading infrastructure. The company currently holds Designated Contract Market (DCM) status recognized by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and plans to expand into more prediction areas including sports, geopolitics, culture, and economics. (Fortune)
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Fulfill Michigan Trades; Federal-State Regulatory Authority Dispute Continues to Escalate
According to The Block, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) officially ordered prediction market platform Kalshi on July 14 to honor all trades involving Michigan residents, directly countering a 14-day injunction previously issued by a Michigan court—which required Kalshi to stop offering sports-related event contracts and cancel some executed trades. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that state governments lack the authority to compel registered Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) to violate federal obligations, as forcibly canceling executed trades would create a ripple effect across the entire market, severely undermining market contractual certainty. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, however, maintained that Kalshi is essentially an unauthorized online gambling platform and that state gambling laws apply to it.
Kalshi announces that Bitcoin perpetual contracts are now officially live
prediction market platform Kalshi announced on platform X that Bitcoin perpetual contracts are now officially online. This marks the first U.S. regulatory-approved Bitcoin perpetual contract product. The product is a perpetual contract referencing the spot price of Bitcoin and is classified as a futures contract. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission previously stated that, following review, the BTCPERP contract complies with the Commodity Exchange Act and relevant regulatory requirements, including the core principles applicable to Designated Contract Markets (DCM).
Kyle Samani: Kalshi and US Crypto Perpetual Contracts Face Uncertainty with Three Potential Outcomes
Odaily Planet Daily reports: Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani posted on X platform analyzing three possible scenarios for the development of Kalshi and the US crypto perpetual contract market:1. Kalshi's previous efforts are irrelevant: Because the US market itself can already offer unregulated perpetual contracts.2. Protocols must pass the eight decentralized tests of the CLARITY Act: If the CLARITY Act passes smoothly, protocols can offer perpetual contracts in the US without registering as a DCO (Designated Contract Organizer) and DCM (Designated Contract Market).3. Products can still attract users but cannot legally enter the US financial system: Even with user recognition, protocols may still be unable to distribute within a compliant framework.Analysis suggests that these potential outcomes highlight the complex relationship between current US derivatives regulation and decentralized protocols, as well as the uncertainty surrounding the compliant implementation of innovative financial products.
U.S. CFTC Approves Kalshi's Listing of Bitcoin Perpetual Contract BTCPERP
the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced today that it has issued an approval order to KalshiEX, LLC, a designated contract market (DCM), allowing it to list the perpetual contract BTCPERP, which references the spot price of Bitcoin, for trading as a futures product. The contract was submitted for review on May 29, 2026, pursuant to CFTC Regulation 40.3.The CFTC reviewed the BTCPERP contract under Section 5c(c)(4) of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and relevant regulations, confirming that it complies with the CEA and CFTC rules, including core principles applicable to DCMs. The approval order requires Kalshi to strictly adhere to the CEA and all relevant CFTC regulations when listing and maintaining the contract.The CFTC also noted that the perpetual contract structure is not suitable for all asset classes and encouraged market participants to voluntarily submit applications for perpetual contract approval under the 40.3 rulemaking for uncovered assets to ensure compliance and robust market development.
Underdog's UDX Self-Certifies 7 Sports Event Contract Templates with CFTC
: UDX, the newly acquired exchange by Underdog, self-certified 7 sports event contract templates with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on July 15, with plans to launch the first batch of contract trading no later than July 17. The filing sets targets for the launch but does not confirm that public trading has begun. The relevant certifications cover 3 baseball and 3 basketball templates, involving markets for game winner, winning margin, and total points. The 7th, broader contract allows for the creation of markets around whether a specified athlete, team, or other entity achieves an outcome within a limited period. These contracts have a notional value of $1, with a trading price range of $0.001 to $0.999. UDX stated that trading will typically remain open continuously except during announced maintenance windows, and liquidity will be provided by at least one market maker. Underdog acquired Aristotle Exchange DCM and its affiliated derivatives clearing organization in March. Prior to the acquisition, Underdog primarily acted as an intermediary, providing users with access to contracts listed on other federally registered trading venues.
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Fulfill Michigan Trades; Federal-State Regulatory Authority Dispute Continues to Escalate
According to The Block, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) officially ordered prediction market platform Kalshi on July 14 to honor all trades involving Michigan residents, directly countering a 14-day injunction previously issued by a Michigan court—which required Kalshi to stop offering sports-related event contracts and cancel some executed trades. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that state governments lack the authority to compel registered Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) to violate federal obligations, as forcibly canceling executed trades would create a ripple effect across the entire market, severely undermining market contractual certainty. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, however, maintained that Kalshi is essentially an unauthorized online gambling platform and that state gambling laws apply to it.
Kalshi announces that Bitcoin perpetual contracts are now officially live
prediction market platform Kalshi announced on platform X that Bitcoin perpetual contracts are now officially online. This marks the first U.S. regulatory-approved Bitcoin perpetual contract product. The product is a perpetual contract referencing the spot price of Bitcoin and is classified as a futures contract. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission previously stated that, following review, the BTCPERP contract complies with the Commodity Exchange Act and relevant regulatory requirements, including the core principles applicable to Designated Contract Markets (DCM).
U.S. CFTC Approves Kalshi's Listing of Bitcoin Perpetual Contract BTCPERP
the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced today that it has issued an approval order to KalshiEX, LLC, a designated contract market (DCM), allowing it to list the perpetual contract BTCPERP, which references the spot price of Bitcoin, for trading as a futures product. The contract was submitted for review on May 29, 2026, pursuant to CFTC Regulation 40.3.The CFTC reviewed the BTCPERP contract under Section 5c(c)(4) of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and relevant regulations, confirming that it complies with the CEA and CFTC rules, including core principles applicable to DCMs. The approval order requires Kalshi to strictly adhere to the CEA and all relevant CFTC regulations when listing and maintaining the contract.The CFTC also noted that the perpetual contract structure is not suitable for all asset classes and encouraged market participants to voluntarily submit applications for perpetual contract approval under the 40.3 rulemaking for uncovered assets to ensure compliance and robust market development.
Trump supports CFTC retaining exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets
Odaily President Trump posted on Truth Social, stating that it is crucial for the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to retain "exclusive jurisdiction" over prediction markets, echoing the stance of CFTC Chairman Michael Selig. Trump also stated that the U.S. is formulating relevant rules, referencing his campaign promise to make the U.S. a center for cryptocurrency and Bitcoin-related fields. Under the leadership of the sole commissioner, Selig, the CFTC has filed lawsuits and amicus briefs against several states to assert its jurisdiction over prediction markets. The dispute centers on whether prediction market contracts related to sports and entertainment constitute gambling products, and whether contracts offered by regulated Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) should fall under CFTC jurisdiction. New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed a related lawsuit, Illinois has issued a cease and desist order, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz signed a law last week imposing criminal penalties for operating prediction markets. Indonesia, Spain, and India have recently banned the operation of prediction markets within their territories. An investigation into prediction markets by a U.S. House committee was also confirmed last week. (CoinDesk)
CFTC Supports Kalshi in Appeal, Asserting Federal Authority Over Prediction Market Regulation
According to Cointelegraph, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an amicus curiae brief with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, supporting Kalshi’s appeal in its litigation against Ohio and asserting that prediction markets fall under the CFTC’s regulatory jurisdiction. The CFTC stated that Ohio’s prior demand that Kalshi cease offering sports-event contracts constituted “jurisdictional overreach.” The CFTC warned that if states were permitted to restrict sports-event contracts traded on designated contract markets (DCMs), the CFTC’s long-standing regulatory authority over event contracts, swaps, and binary options markets could be undermined. The outcome of this case will also impact prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Related news
Binance US to Apply for CFTC DCM License Next Month, Plans to Launch Prediction Market
Fox Business crypto journalist posted on platform X, stating that Binance US CEO Stevie_Satoshi said at the RareEvo Conference that Binance US plans to apply for a Designated Contract Market license from the CFTC next month, with the goal of offering prediction markets to customers. This move is part of the exchange's broader comeback strategy, which includes reducing trading fees and expanding beyond spot trading into products such as prediction markets and perpetual contracts.
Kalshi and Polymarket Combined Trading Volume Exceeds $44 Billion in 2025
Kalshi and Polymarket processed a combined trading volume of over $44 billion in 2025. As of April 2026, the monthly trading volume on the two platforms has risen to $24 billion, surpassing the average monthly betting volume of legal sports platforms in the United States. Kalshi reported $263.5 million in fee revenue last year, with its annualized revenue exceeding $1.5 billion since then. Prediction markets operate on a binary contract exchange model, where the platform matches buyers and sellers without placing bets, holding positions, or bearing the risk of event outcomes. Its primary revenue comes from transaction fees, with additional revenue sources including data licensing, API access for institutional traders, and, in some cases, market creation fees on the platform. In the U.S. market, Kalshi is a Designated Contract Market (DCM) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket re-entered the U.S. market at the end of 2025 by acquiring the CFTC-regulated QCEX for $112 million. Some states still classify prediction market contracts as gambling, and related federal and state-level lawsuits remain ongoing. The European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) does not directly define the attributes of prediction market contracts, and classification varies among member states. If a platform uses crypto settlement and provides custody or transfer services to EU users, it must also obtain a license as a Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP).
Prediction market Kalshi's trading volume surges to $24.2 billion during World Cup
: U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi experienced explosive growth during the 2026 World Cup, with platform trading volume soaring from $6.67 billion on June 22 to $24.2 billion on July 14. The single "World Cup Champion" prediction market saw trading volume exceed $1.2 billion. Kalshi stated that its growth reflects a new trend in the AI era: as the volume of AI-generated content increases substantially, authentic, real-time, and non-replicable human interaction scenarios are becoming scarcer, positioning prediction markets as a novel tool for observing public sentiment and collective judgment.Meanwhile, Kalshi is seeking to transform from a sports prediction platform into the next-generation financial trading infrastructure. The company currently holds Designated Contract Market (DCM) status recognized by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and plans to expand into more prediction areas including sports, geopolitics, culture, and economics. (Fortune)
Underdog's UDX Self-Certifies 7 Sports Event Contract Templates with CFTC
: UDX, the newly acquired exchange by Underdog, self-certified 7 sports event contract templates with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on July 15, with plans to launch the first batch of contract trading no later than July 17. The filing sets targets for the launch but does not confirm that public trading has begun. The relevant certifications cover 3 baseball and 3 basketball templates, involving markets for game winner, winning margin, and total points. The 7th, broader contract allows for the creation of markets around whether a specified athlete, team, or other entity achieves an outcome within a limited period. These contracts have a notional value of $1, with a trading price range of $0.001 to $0.999. UDX stated that trading will typically remain open continuously except during announced maintenance windows, and liquidity will be provided by at least one market maker. Underdog acquired Aristotle Exchange DCM and its affiliated derivatives clearing organization in March. Prior to the acquisition, Underdog primarily acted as an intermediary, providing users with access to contracts listed on other federally registered trading venues.
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Fulfill Michigan Trades; Federal-State Regulatory Authority Dispute Continues to Escalate
According to The Block, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) officially ordered prediction market platform Kalshi on July 14 to honor all trades involving Michigan residents, directly countering a 14-day injunction previously issued by a Michigan court—which required Kalshi to stop offering sports-related event contracts and cancel some executed trades. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that state governments lack the authority to compel registered Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) to violate federal obligations, as forcibly canceling executed trades would create a ripple effect across the entire market, severely undermining market contractual certainty. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, however, maintained that Kalshi is essentially an unauthorized online gambling platform and that state gambling laws apply to it.
Kalshi announces that Bitcoin perpetual contracts are now officially live
prediction market platform Kalshi announced on platform X that Bitcoin perpetual contracts are now officially online. This marks the first U.S. regulatory-approved Bitcoin perpetual contract product. The product is a perpetual contract referencing the spot price of Bitcoin and is classified as a futures contract. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission previously stated that, following review, the BTCPERP contract complies with the Commodity Exchange Act and relevant regulatory requirements, including the core principles applicable to Designated Contract Markets (DCM).