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Bybit’s latest options weekly report states that all four directional predictions for this week were fulfilled: BTC hit a low of $59,130—surpassing the prior target range of $65,000–$67,000. Opening last week at $73,760 and plunging to $59,130, BTC recorded its largest single-week decline since the FTX collapse (roughly −20%). It has since rebounded to $63,000. Three bearish catalysts recently converged: stronger-than-expected NFP data reigniting rate-hike expectations; SpaceX’s IPO siphoning liquidity; and Strategy selling BTC for the first time in four years. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record net outflow of $1.7 billion for the week. ETH’s daily RSI plunged to a historic low of 12.78, while BTC’s daily RSI dropped to 15.45—raising the probability of a technical rebound, though trend reversal remains unconfirmed. DVOL surged from its historical low of 35 to 55 before retreating to 48; put options have already been profitably closed. Currently, chasing long positions is discouraged. BTC faces significant resistance between $63,000 and $65,000. Entry should await either the June 10 CPI release or DVOL falling back to 40—or until BTC convincingly closes above $65,000.
market maker Wintermute released a weekly market analysis report stating that Bitcoin fell below $62,000 last week, with a weekly decline of approximately 14%, hitting a new low since September 2024. Wintermute believes that although Strategy founder Michael Saylor disclosed the sale of 32 BTC, drawing market attention, the scale of this transaction is negligible. The real reason for the market's weakness is the continuous reduction of positions by U.S. institutional investors and the outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs.Wintermute pointed out that the U.S. added 172,000 non-farm jobs in May, far exceeding the market expectation of approximately 80,000. Meanwhile, job openings rose to a near two-year high, and the service price index hit a new high since August 2022. Strong economic data has weakened market expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.55%, creating a "good news is bad news" macro environment that pressures risk assets.Meanwhile, the rally in AI concept stocks has shown signs of weakening, with the Nasdaq index falling 4.7% for the week and the S&P 500 recording its first weekly decline since March. Wintermute believes that the pullback in the AI sector, rising yields, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO have collectively dampened market risk appetite.In the crypto market, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days as of May 30, with total outflows of approximately $2.97 billion. The net outflow in May reached $2.43 billion, marking the worst monthly performance since 2026. Wintermute OTC data shows that retail funds continue to flow into U.S. stocks, while U.S. institutional investors have recently turned bearish and are leading the selling.However, Wintermute believes there are also positive signals in the market, including long-term capital gradually building positions at current price levels. From a perspective of more than one year, Bitcoin's risk-reward ratio is becoming more attractive. The report stated that the SpaceX IPO on June 12 will serve as an important barometer for observing market risk appetite. If the issuance is smoothly absorbed, it could help boost market sentiment; conversely, it may exacerbate the pressure on risk assets.
According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin will reenact its historical “Sell in May” pattern in 2026. In the two midterm election years—2018 and 2022—Bitcoin experienced sharp declines in May, falling approximately 30% and 70%, respectively. Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar warned that this historical pattern could repeat, with Bitcoin potentially dropping to $33,000. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, also noted that if Bitcoin remains persistently below $78,000, the likelihood of a new capitulation phase increases. However, Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at CoinEx, argued that past crashes stemmed from specific shocks—including the Mt. Gox incident, China’s ICO regulations, the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening, and the collapses of Terra and FTX—not from calendar-based seasonality. He added that the launch of spot ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and progress on the CLARITY Act have significantly broadened the institutional buyer base, making a 70–80% deep correction unlikely this cycle. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted $76,000 as the current critical support level; failure to hold it would likely trigger further downside pressure.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on X, stating that based on the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply, a drop to the key $59,000 range is required for a true mid-to-long term bottoming process to begin. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed within one to two weeks; the base case scenario estimates it will take approximately six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that while Bitcoin has recently seen some increase in price, what truly drives market stabilization is not sentiment recovery or a local rebound, but the return of long-term genuine demand. That is, when the market begins to price in future value again and spot buying continues to recover, the bottom may be truly established.
According to monitoring by crypto analyst @EmberCN, after Aave coordinated the establishment of "DeFi United" and received approximately 30,000 ETH in loans and 13,500 ETH in donations, the platform's capital outflows have shown signs of slowing.Data indicates that Aave's current total deposit scale stands at approximately $28.6 billion, a decrease of about $17.2 billion, or roughly 37%, compared to before the rsETH incident.
According to on-chain analyst Yujin (@EmberCN), since the rsETH incident, funds have continuously flowed out of the Aave platform—approximately $15.1 billion in total over 3.5 days. Total deposits dropped from $48.5 billion pre-incident to $30.7 billion, representing a withdrawal of roughly one-third of funds; stablecoin outflows amounted to $4.5 billion. However, due to this capital outflow, the platform’s stablecoin deposit APY temporarily remained elevated at 13.4%. During the same period, Morpho saw outflows of approximately $1.5 billion, with total deposits declining from $11.7 billion to $10.2 billion. In contrast, Spark experienced逆势 fund inflows: its TVL rose from $1.9 billion to $3.2 billion—an increase of about $1.3 billion—partly driven by reallocation from whales such as Justin Sun and institutions withdrawing from Aave.
Odaily News According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, Aave has experienced continuous fund outflows since the early morning incident yesterday, totaling $10.1 billion. This has reduced total deposits from $45.8 billion to $35.7 billion, with $4.5 billion of that being stablecoins. This outflow has caused the stablecoin deposit interest rate on Aave, which offers a 13.4% APY, to be maintained for an entire day.
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), Kelp DAO lost approximately $294 million in the cross-chain bridge exploit. As a result, $ZRO dropped from $2 to $1.40. A whale holding a long $ZRO position on HyperLiquid was partially liquidated, incurring a loss of $2.88 million. The whale still holds the position, with an unrealized loss exceeding $750,000 and a total loss of approximately $28.98 million.