News linked to both this project and an event.
Analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin's current chip concentration is similar to that before the 2022 FTX collapse, and a highly concentrated chip structure could amplify price volatility. Jiang Zhuoer believes that if the CLARITY Act fails to pass before Congress adjourns, Bitcoin may witness the final drop of the bear market.
According to Odaily, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the current bear market phase for Bitcoin has seen the highest level of realized losses among holders. The 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses peaked at $1.37 billion in February 2026, 19% higher than the $1.15 billion peak during the 2022 cycle. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin realized losses have dropped by 56.5% to approximately $597 million. Meanwhile, the scale of realized profits has only slowly recovered to $257 million. Axel Adler pointed out that loss-driven selling pressure has significantly weakened, but the market has not yet seen sustained demand recovery, with the decline in losses still outpacing the recovery in profits.From a historical cycle comparison, realized losses reached $1.37 billion on February 20, 2026, a new all-time high for this metric. The highest realized loss in the 2022 cycle was $1.15 billion, recorded on June 30, 2022. In terms of realized profits, as of July 23, Bitcoin's realized profit 30DMA stood at $257 million, down 92.7% from the peak of $3.51 billion recorded on December 10, 2024. It is also down 77.7% from the level on October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $124,710. This metric bottomed out at $191 million on June 14, 2026, and has since recovered by 34.7%.Axel Adler stated that profit-driven selling pressure has dropped significantly, and the volume of coins being sold for profit is currently at a low level for this cycle. However, this does not mean that sellers have been completely exhausted, nor does it imply that market demand has recovered. If realized profits consistently rise above the $400 million to $500 million range, it would better confirm a sustained market improvement.Additionally, the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio has recovered from a low of 0.26 in June to 0.43, but remains below the 1.0 level. The analyst noted that while the absolute scale of realized losses in the current cycle exceeds that of 2022, the relative market pressure is still lower than in 2022. Since Bitcoin's all-time high, realized losses have exceeded realized profits on 190 out of the past 291 days. Axel Adler cautioned that if the profit/loss ratio breaks below 0.26 again, accompanied by a price drop below the cycle low of $58,535 established on June 30, it could signal further escalation of market pressure.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that data shows since November 2021, the Bitcoin balance held by miner-associated over-the-counter (OTC) addresses has decreased from 500,000 to 139,700, a cumulative decline of nearly 72%. This trend has continued for over four years, indicating that the Bitcoin reserves of this group are continuously shrinking.
According to CCTV Finance, the US stock memory chip sector encountered a collective correction after hitting a high in late June, with industry leaders such as SanDisk, Micron Technology, Seagate Technology, and Western Digital seeing stock price declines of over 20% in the past few weeks. The triggering factor was Meta selling computing power, which sparked market concerns about a surplus in computing power, while the core variable lies in whether the technical gaps between various AI large models will continue to narrow. Industry insiders point out that the memory chip industry has historically exhibited significant cyclicality—during booms, manufacturers collectively expand production leading to plummeting prices and industry-wide losses, followed by collective contraction in capital expenditure. Meanwhile, the industry's business model is undergoing profound changes, with cloud vendors and AI data centers increasingly signing 3-to-5-year long-term supply agreements with original manufacturers, including price ranges and minimum purchase volumes, to ensure the stability of key supply chains.
According to official sources, TAC issued a statement regarding the significant price drop in the past 24 hours, stating that the protocol was not attacked, on-chain assets are secure, and the system is operating normally; the team and early investors did not participate in the sell-off, relevant tokens remain in the lock-up and vesting period, and there is no possibility of unlocking at this stage.
CryptoQuant has indicated that the amount of Bitcoin deposited into centralized exchanges last week rose to nearly 50,000 BTC per day, marking the fourth time this year it has reached that level. The report states that this increase coincides with Bitcoin testing the key support level of $60,000. If it breaks below this level, Bitcoin could move toward the realized price of $53,000. During the same period, the average Bitcoin deposit size roughly doubled from 1 BTC to 2 BTC, with CryptoQuant attributing this growth to whales and institutions rather than retail investors. Ethereum's daily inflow peaked at 1.25 million ETH, and the number of deposit transactions for other altcoins also rose to over 45,000 per day. Bitcoin is up 3.5% this week, trading at $62,886, more than 50% below its all-time high of $126,080 from October; Ethereum is up nearly 12% this week, trading at $1,787, approximately 64% below its all-time high of $4,946. (Decrypt).
Analyst Ali stated on X platform that the SpaceX stock price has now hit the key resistance level of $165, which is considered the top of its channel. As long as the $165 level is not broken effectively, the short-term trend remains susceptible to a pullback, with the price potentially falling to $157, or even further down to the channel support around $149.Ali added that if the price can effectively break and hold above $165, it would invalidate the current bearish structure and could open up room for an upward move, targeting the $180 level.
According to the weekly market report released by BIT Official, heavy selling in semiconductor and AI stocks on June 23-24 triggered defensive adjustments by institutional capital. BTC fell below $60K on June 24, hitting a low of ~$59,000 (intraday decline of approximately 5%). Approximately $994 million in liquidations occurred during the same period (of which approximately $780 million were long positions). Approximately $1.2 billion in nominal Put positions at the $60K level forced market makers to short, exacerbating the downward trend. As of the weekend, BTC was quoted at ~$59,992, down 6.9% for the week; ETH was quoted at ~$1,578, down 9.3% for the week. In terms of volatility, DVOL only rose slightly (BTC 44.1→45.7, ETH 57.3→59.5), front-end skew tended to stabilize, and convexity returned to normal. The institutional defensive hedging ratio decreased from 29.6% to 19.7%, shifting towards two-way balance, overall showing characteristics of an "orderly decline" rather than panic selling. In terms of ETFs, for the week ending June 26, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1.79 billion, marking the second-highest weekly outflow record in history, and have seen net outflows for 7 consecutive weeks; IBIT net assets decreased to approximately $44.4 billion, with average holders having an unrealized loss of approximately 40%. Strategy purchased only 520 BTC this week (approximately $34.9 million), significantly slowing down compared to the previous two weeks. MSTR stock price has fallen below its BTC book value, and the flywheel effect has been affected
Miller Tabak strategist Matt Maley and 22V Research technical strategist John Roque believe Bitcoin is at a key technical indicator level.Matt Maley stated that if Bitcoin declines further from its current level of around $60,000, it could amplify negative investor sentiment. Although Wall Street firms continue to invest in digital assets, retail investors, who have historically been the main force driving cryptocurrency rallies, have shifted their focus to high-growth AI and tech stocks. Recent significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs indicate waning investor enthusiasm. Cryptocurrencies are also showing signs of decoupling from the stock market.John Roque noted that Bitcoin is retesting its first downside target of $60,000. If it breaks below this level, it implies a potential drop to $400,000. Matt Maley added that Congress might pass a crypto structure bill with clearer rules, which would reduce uncertainty and encourage institutional participation in the long run. Furthermore, Bitcoin ETFs experienced their largest monthly outflow since 2024 recently. (CNBC)
10x Research stated on X platform that Ethereum is currently at the $1,600 support level. If this support is lost, the next target is $1,200, a price level seen since the FTX collapse. Ethereum (ETH-USDT) is trading below the 7-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend; it is also below the 30-day moving average, with a weekly decline of 7.4%. Ethereum executed a major restructuring, laying off 20% of its staff, which triggered a significant price drop. Warnings of a funding crisis following the expiration of key developer incentive plans further dampened market sentiment.The spot Ethereum ETF continues to see net outflows alongside weak institutional demand, severely constraining upward market momentum. On-chain data shows asset accumulation at multi-year lows and a rising transaction failure rate, signaling cooling network demand. The news calendar is relatively light this week, with the dominant price factors remaining macro headwinds: the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, a strengthening US dollar, and stock market volatility.
Bybit’s latest options weekly report states that all four directional predictions for this week were fulfilled: BTC hit a low of $59,130—surpassing the prior target range of $65,000–$67,000. Opening last week at $73,760 and plunging to $59,130, BTC recorded its largest single-week decline since the FTX collapse (roughly −20%). It has since rebounded to $63,000. Three bearish catalysts recently converged: stronger-than-expected NFP data reigniting rate-hike expectations; SpaceX’s IPO siphoning liquidity; and Strategy selling BTC for the first time in four years. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record net outflow of $1.7 billion for the week. ETH’s daily RSI plunged to a historic low of 12.78, while BTC’s daily RSI dropped to 15.45—raising the probability of a technical rebound, though trend reversal remains unconfirmed. DVOL surged from its historical low of 35 to 55 before retreating to 48; put options have already been profitably closed. Currently, chasing long positions is discouraged. BTC faces significant resistance between $63,000 and $65,000. Entry should await either the June 10 CPI release or DVOL falling back to 40—or until BTC convincingly closes above $65,000.
market maker Wintermute released a weekly market analysis report stating that Bitcoin fell below $62,000 last week, with a weekly decline of approximately 14%, hitting a new low since September 2024. Wintermute believes that although Strategy founder Michael Saylor disclosed the sale of 32 BTC, drawing market attention, the scale of this transaction is negligible. The real reason for the market's weakness is the continuous reduction of positions by U.S. institutional investors and the outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs.Wintermute pointed out that the U.S. added 172,000 non-farm jobs in May, far exceeding the market expectation of approximately 80,000. Meanwhile, job openings rose to a near two-year high, and the service price index hit a new high since August 2022. Strong economic data has weakened market expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.55%, creating a "good news is bad news" macro environment that pressures risk assets.Meanwhile, the rally in AI concept stocks has shown signs of weakening, with the Nasdaq index falling 4.7% for the week and the S&P 500 recording its first weekly decline since March. Wintermute believes that the pullback in the AI sector, rising yields, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO have collectively dampened market risk appetite.In the crypto market, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days as of May 30, with total outflows of approximately $2.97 billion. The net outflow in May reached $2.43 billion, marking the worst monthly performance since 2026. Wintermute OTC data shows that retail funds continue to flow into U.S. stocks, while U.S. institutional investors have recently turned bearish and are leading the selling.However, Wintermute believes there are also positive signals in the market, including long-term capital gradually building positions at current price levels. From a perspective of more than one year, Bitcoin's risk-reward ratio is becoming more attractive. The report stated that the SpaceX IPO on June 12 will serve as an important barometer for observing market risk appetite. If the issuance is smoothly absorbed, it could help boost market sentiment; conversely, it may exacerbate the pressure on risk assets.
According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin will reenact its historical “Sell in May” pattern in 2026. In the two midterm election years—2018 and 2022—Bitcoin experienced sharp declines in May, falling approximately 30% and 70%, respectively. Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar warned that this historical pattern could repeat, with Bitcoin potentially dropping to $33,000. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, also noted that if Bitcoin remains persistently below $78,000, the likelihood of a new capitulation phase increases. However, Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at CoinEx, argued that past crashes stemmed from specific shocks—including the Mt. Gox incident, China’s ICO regulations, the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening, and the collapses of Terra and FTX—not from calendar-based seasonality. He added that the launch of spot ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and progress on the CLARITY Act have significantly broadened the institutional buyer base, making a 70–80% deep correction unlikely this cycle. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted $76,000 as the current critical support level; failure to hold it would likely trigger further downside pressure.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on X, stating that based on the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply, a drop to the key $59,000 range is required for a true mid-to-long term bottoming process to begin. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed within one to two weeks; the base case scenario estimates it will take approximately six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that while Bitcoin has recently seen some increase in price, what truly drives market stabilization is not sentiment recovery or a local rebound, but the return of long-term genuine demand. That is, when the market begins to price in future value again and spot buying continues to recover, the bottom may be truly established.
According to monitoring by crypto analyst @EmberCN, after Aave coordinated the establishment of "DeFi United" and received approximately 30,000 ETH in loans and 13,500 ETH in donations, the platform's capital outflows have shown signs of slowing.Data indicates that Aave's current total deposit scale stands at approximately $28.6 billion, a decrease of about $17.2 billion, or roughly 37%, compared to before the rsETH incident.
According to on-chain analyst Yujin (@EmberCN), since the rsETH incident, funds have continuously flowed out of the Aave platform—approximately $15.1 billion in total over 3.5 days. Total deposits dropped from $48.5 billion pre-incident to $30.7 billion, representing a withdrawal of roughly one-third of funds; stablecoin outflows amounted to $4.5 billion. However, due to this capital outflow, the platform’s stablecoin deposit APY temporarily remained elevated at 13.4%. During the same period, Morpho saw outflows of approximately $1.5 billion, with total deposits declining from $11.7 billion to $10.2 billion. In contrast, Spark experienced逆势 fund inflows: its TVL rose from $1.9 billion to $3.2 billion—an increase of about $1.3 billion—partly driven by reallocation from whales such as Justin Sun and institutions withdrawing from Aave.
Odaily News According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, Aave has experienced continuous fund outflows since the early morning incident yesterday, totaling $10.1 billion. This has reduced total deposits from $45.8 billion to $35.7 billion, with $4.5 billion of that being stablecoins. This outflow has caused the stablecoin deposit interest rate on Aave, which offers a 13.4% APY, to be maintained for an entire day.
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), Kelp DAO lost approximately $294 million in the cross-chain bridge exploit. As a result, $ZRO dropped from $2 to $1.40. A whale holding a long $ZRO position on HyperLiquid was partially liquidated, incurring a loss of $2.88 million. The whale still holds the position, with an unrealized loss exceeding $750,000 and a total loss of approximately $28.98 million.