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the open interest (OI) for options on the Bitcoin spot ETF, IBIT, issued by BlackRock, rose to $27.61 billion on Friday, surpassing the $26.9 billion in the Bitcoin options market on the crypto derivatives platform Deribit for the first time.According to Volmex data, the call options holdings in IBIT are primarily betting that the Bitcoin price will rise to $109,709 in the short term, approximately 41% higher than the current level of around $77,400. Meanwhile, the Deribit market mainly expects Bitcoin to rise to about $106,000. Additionally, the average time to maturity of IBIT options is about two months longer than those on Deribit, indicating that investors in the regulated U.S. market are more inclined towards long-term holdings and stronger bullish sentiment. This further highlights the accelerating trend of institutionalization in the Bitcoin market. (CoinDesk)
According to CoinDesk, as market sentiment improves, the Bitcoin options market is undergoing a notable shift: the $80,000 call option on Deribit has become the most actively traded, with open interest exceeding $1.6 billion—surpassing the previously dominant $60,000 put option (which held approximately $1.41 billion in open interest). Analysts suggest that the recent temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has driven oil prices lower, easing inflation expectations and potentially strengthening market anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts—thereby benefiting risk assets including Bitcoin. Additionally, asset management firm 21Shares stated that, against the backdrop of sustained ETF inflows and rising institutional holdings, Bitcoin could potentially reach $100,000 by the end of Q2—if geopolitical tensions ease further and the regulatory environment improves. However, risks remain: the current ceasefire is fragile, and any escalation in Middle Eastern conflict could trigger a rebound in oil prices, dampening market risk appetite and thereby capping Bitcoin’s upside potential.