News linked to both this project and an event.
According to a post by the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s “Percent of Supply in Profit” indicator is approaching the critical 45% threshold. Historical data shows this level typically coincides with periods of intense market stress and heightened risk of mass capitulation—contrasting sharply with bull market peaks, where the indicator often exceeds 90%. Current figures indicate that a large portion of Bitcoin holdings have shifted from profitable to unprofitable positions, signaling a deep reset in market expectations rather than a state of euphoria. From an on-chain perspective, profit compression often drives a transfer of coins from weak hands to long-term holders. This may intensify short-term volatility, but historically, such redistribution processes have contributed to healthier market structure—and longer-term opportunities may now be emerging.
crypto research firm K33 stated that although Bitcoin has retested its 200-day moving average around $82,000 this month and subsequently fallen by about 6%, the low near $60,000 in February this year may still represent the maximum drawdown of this cycle. K33 Research Head Vetle Lunde pointed out that unlike the bear market rallies in 2014, 2018, and 2022, this market experienced a slow recovery lasting 189 days after breaking below the 200-day moving average. Furthermore, market leverage and risk appetite have not been quickly rebuilt. Therefore, the current trend resembles a moderate correction rather than a precursor to another sharp decline.K33 also noted that institutional fund flows still reflect a defensive sentiment. The latest 13F filings show that institutional investors reduced their holdings by a total of approximately 26,733 BTC in the first quarter, while retail investors increased their holdings by about 19,395 BTC. Neutral strategy institutions like Jane Street and Millennium accounted for most of this reduction. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded the ninth-largest five-day capital outflow since the launch of U.S. spot ETFs. K33 believes this typically occurs when BTC is near the cost basis of ETF holdings, reflecting investors' tendency to cut losses or reduce risk exposure after experiencing significant drawdowns. (The Block)
on-chain analyst Yujin posted on Platform X, stating that current market trading enthusiasm is now much lower than it was at the bottom of the last bear market (December 2022). This is despite the fact that prices of several major cryptocurrencies are still far higher than they were at that time.BTC: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume for BTC/USDT on Binance was around $20 billion. Now it is only about $5 billion. The current price is 4.5 times higher than the previous bottom. The correction magnitude last cycle was -75%, while from the peak to now in this cycle, it is -38%.ETH: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume for ETH/USDT was around $4 billion. Now it is only about $2 billion. The current price is 1.7 times higher than the previous bottom. The correction magnitude last cycle was -75%, while from the peak to now in this cycle, it is -54%.BNB: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume for BNB/USDT was around $50 million. Now it is roughly at the same level. The current price is 2.7 times higher than the previous bottom. The correction magnitude last cycle was -65%, while from the peak to now in this cycle, it is -50%.
Odaily, CryptoQuant.com posted on X platform, stating that BTC’s current pullback remains higher than the previous panic selling lows. This does not guarantee further declines, but the current situation still shows a substantial difference from past cyclical lows.
According to the Aave Governance Forum, Gordon Liao, a Circle team member, has submitted an ARFC proposal recommending a two-step adjustment to the USDC interest rate model parameters on Aave v3 Ethereum Core to address the current liquidity shortage in the USDC pool. Current context: Following the rsETH incident on April 18, the USDC pool utilization has remained persistently near 100%, with available liquidity falling below $3 million. The borrowing rate has been stuck at the 14% cap for an extended period, and the pool’s total supply has contracted by approximately $60 million over the past 24 hours. As a result, the market is unable to clear via price mechanisms. The proposal’s core measures are as follows: Step 1 (to be executed immediately by Risk Administrators): Increase Slope 2 from 10% to 40%, decrease the optimal utilization rate from 92% to 87%, and temporarily suspend the Slope 2 risk oracle for USDC. Step 2 (to be completed within 5–7 days via governance vote): Further increase Slope 2 to 50% and reduce the optimal utilization rate to 85%. The proposal argues that many current borrowers are insensitive to interest rates and primarily borrow to bypass withdrawal queues and exit positions. Active leverage, meanwhile, is key to attracting new suppliers. Raising the maximum supply rate to the 40%–50% range is expected to draw in USDC liquidity within hours, driving utilization below the kink point and restoring the market’s normal clearing functionality.
Odaily News Arkham posted on the X platform, stating that it has identified the on-chain wallet address of Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), becoming the first platform to publicly identify the on-chain BTC holdings of this ETF, enabling users to track fund inflows and outflows in real-time.It is reported that the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF was listed on NYSE Arca on April 8, with Coinbase and BNY Mellon serving as custodians. According to Arkham tracking data, it currently holds 1,348 BTC, valued at approximately $103.92 million.
Crypto analyst Ali published a detailed analysis on X, arguing that rather than debating whether Bitcoin has hit its bottom, market participants should focus on whether the current volatility represents a “generation-defining entry opportunity.” Based on long-term trend lines, on-chain liquidity, and cost distribution metrics, Ali delineates the core “value range” for this cycle. On the support side, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows a significant concentration of coins in the $63,111–$70,685 range, forming the current primary support zone; if price breaks below $63,111, the market may enter a liquidity vacuum. From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin is approaching the key upward trend line from the past decade (approximately $56,000–$60,000), a level historically associated with accumulation phases preceding major rallies.