News linked to both this project and an event.
Trader Doctor Profit stated that his current key positioning is the "Galactic Three", namely Circle, Coinbase, and ETH, believing that the three correspond to compliant stablecoin issuance, crypto asset custody and trading, and tokenization and smart contract infrastructure respectively, and are core targets in the reshaping of the financial system in this new cycle.
Odaily News: Investment research firm Morningstar stated in a report on July 30 that it has set Nvidia's fair value estimate at $280 per share, 44% higher than the current level of approximately $194. The firm believes that Nvidia's 17% decline since mid-May has begun to diverge from its fair value estimate.Morningstar also assigned Nvidia a "very high" uncertainty rating. The risks it listed include the possibility of hyperscale cloud providers developing their own AI hardware in the future, as well as related customers cutting spending in response to investor demands.Morningstar Senior Equity Analyst Brian Colello stated that the likelihood of strong AI capital expenditure in the near and medium term remains high, and Nvidia's growth prospects are being underestimated. He also noted that the stock appears to exhibit undervaluation characteristics.
Odaily Odaily reports, according to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a Hyperliquid trader deposited 15.29 million USDC and then opened a long position worth approximately $73.82 million. Current main positions include: SP500 long position of $62.02 million with 20x leverage; MU long position of $6.88 million with 10x leverage; SNDK long position of $4.92 million with 10x leverage. Historical cumulative profit is approximately $1.6 million.
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a Hyperliquid whale has deposited 31.12 million USDC into Hyperliquid over the past 3 days, currently holding a $64.9 million short position. The latest deposit was 5.12 million USDC. Current positions include a $43.93 million short on SKHX, a $17.07 million short on BRENTOIL, as well as other shorts on SMSN, HIMS, and NVIDIA. This wallet is currently 100% short.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that after Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in February this year and the MVRV percentile dropped below 10% into the "capitulation zone", this situation has appeared again since June.
Citrini analyst Jukan, citing Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore, stated on X that the memory shortage in the data center sector is continuing to deteriorate, with no signs of easing market supply pressure, and the tightness of memory supply remains higher than expected. Currently, compared to the projected levels for the second quarter of 2026, prices for memory products with the same specifications have already risen by at least 25% in the third quarter, exceeding previous forecasts by Morgan Stanley and third-party institutions.The tight memory supply situation could further intensify in 2027 and 2028. Current available memory resources in the market cannot meet the rapidly growing demands of the artificial intelligence industry, and this situation is unlikely to change in the short term. AI is consuming a large amount of DRAM production capacity, reducing the memory resources available for other industries, and the production of consumer electronics such as PCs and smartphones has already been affected.AI is consuming a large amount of DRAM production capacity, reducing the memory resources available for other industries, and the production of consumer electronics such as PCs and smartphones has already been affected. The demand from AI is not only impacted by the memory shortage; memory itself is gradually becoming one of the key bottlenecks limiting AI development, on par with data center space and power supply. Additionally, some cloud computing customers are paying higher-than-expected prices to secure memory products delivered six weeks early. The market believes that as AI server construction continues to expand, pressure on the supply chains for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and DRAM may persist further.
Odaily In May of this year, Bankless founder David Hoffman publicly announced on the X platform that he had liquidated all of his ETH holdings.Due to ETH's recent strong price performance, some community users posted remarks teasing David for "selling ETH at the exact bottom." David Hoffman responded by saying: "Stop saying that. The current price of ETH is lower than my liquidation price."
According to on-chain analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), the proportion of loss-making UTXOs in the Bitcoin market continues to expand, and the loss/profit UTXO ratio has risen to an extreme range, a level that has historically only appeared during periods of deep stress in bear markets. Darkfost pointed out that this indicator measures market sentiment by calculating the ratio of the number of profit and loss UTXOs, is not distorted by the absolute value of BTC price, and has strong historical consistency. Current readings indicate significant holding loss pressure, suggesting certain accumulation value from a long-term perspective; however, caution is warranted when market sentiment shifts, as a rapid climb in the number of profit-making UTXOs could drive the ratio sharply higher, which may then signal an intermediate top.
According to Blockaid monitoring, the Lumi Finance protocol on Arbitrum is under attack, and approximately $270,000 in funds have been transferred out so far.
According to analyst thechessONCHAIN on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently at 0.158, its 100-day Exponential Moving Average is 0.215, and the 30-day Exponential Moving Average is 0.155. On June 2, the 30-day moving average crossed below the 100-day moving average, indicating weakening market momentum, but both are currently still above the zero line.
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that currently, active Bitcoin investors are floating at a loss of about 20% on average, and market sentiment is in a "devaluation" phase, but has not yet reached the deep pressure levels typical of historical bear markets.Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) is currently around $76,700. This indicator reflects the average cost basis of active circulating BTC supply (excluding coins that have been dormant for a long time, potentially lost, or illiquid). Historically, this level acted as a significant resistance zone in May, where some investors chose to exit the market without incurring losses or with minor losses. Meanwhile, the AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) is currently around 0.8, meaning active investors are down approximately 20% from their cost basis. In contrast, during historical bear markets, this indicator typically drops to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to a deeper drawdown of about 40%–50%.Analysis suggests that in this cycle, the entry of institutional funds and ETFs has not changed Bitcoin's cyclical nature; the market continues to operate within its own structural framework. Although significant devaluation pressure is already evident, it may not necessarily need to fall to historical bear market extreme levels to trigger a rebound. Overall, cautious judgment regarding cyclical fluctuations remains necessary.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that during this correction, large investors holding more than 1 Bitcoin are taking advantage of the price decline to increase their positions. Their total BTC holdings have reached a new all-time high, exceeding 16.8 million coins, indicating that long-term allocation demand continues to strengthen and further reflecting the institutionalization trend of Bitcoin as an asset.Data shows that the holdings of this type of investor have continued to rise, suggesting that market participants are more inclined towards asset allocation from a long-term perspective rather than short-term trading.At the retail level, analysis indicates signs of re-accumulation are emerging, but the overall sentiment remains cautious. Current retail holdings are approximately 1.7 million BTC, still below the all-time high recorded in December 2023. Some retail investors chose to take profits during the previous price rally, while others may have adjusted their exposure through more convenient channels such as ETFs.The analysis suggests that although the behavioral pace differs among various investor groups, the market as a whole is gradually forming a consensus that the current phase is more suited for a long-term allocation window. The trend of funds re-entering the accumulation phase is strengthening.
Bitcoin continues to face pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional wait-and-see sentiment, hovering around $64,500, down approximately 2% on the day. The market is awaiting the outcome of the Fed FOMC meeting, which will be chaired by Kevin Warsh for the first time, with widespread expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range.Analysts point out that the focus of this meeting has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "policy path and inflation signals." Current US inflation is believed to remain near three-year highs, with energy prices and geopolitical developments keeping the market cautious about the future policy direction.Pressure is also emerging simultaneously on the chain and institutional levels. Structural concerns surrounding Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue to escalate, with its preferred stock STRC falling to $91.79 on June 16, over 8% below its $100 par value, seen as a sign of weakening corporate Bitcoin buying power.Although spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $10.1 million on June 16, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the majority, the capital scale remains significantly lower than in previous periods, indicating limited buying momentum.Market research firms Bitfinex and QCP note that the recent Bitcoin rebound appears more like a "technical recovery driven by exhausted selling pressure" rather than being fueled by new demand. In the derivatives market, rising implied volatility in options and a skew towards put protection suggest traders are pricing in tail risks.In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is considered to be oscillating in the short term within the $60,000 to $68,000 range. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance or institutional buying weakens further, a pullback to the $62,000–$63,000 range is possible.Overall, the current market presents a combination of "macro wait-and-see, marginal institutional weakening, and heightened derivatives defense." The short-term direction still depends on FOMC policy signals and the potential return of ETF and corporate capital flows. (The Block)
According to a post by the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s “Percent of Supply in Profit” indicator is approaching the critical 45% threshold. Historical data shows this level typically coincides with periods of intense market stress and heightened risk of mass capitulation—contrasting sharply with bull market peaks, where the indicator often exceeds 90%. Current figures indicate that a large portion of Bitcoin holdings have shifted from profitable to unprofitable positions, signaling a deep reset in market expectations rather than a state of euphoria. From an on-chain perspective, profit compression often drives a transfer of coins from weak hands to long-term holders. This may intensify short-term volatility, but historically, such redistribution processes have contributed to healthier market structure—and longer-term opportunities may now be emerging.
crypto research firm K33 stated that although Bitcoin has retested its 200-day moving average around $82,000 this month and subsequently fallen by about 6%, the low near $60,000 in February this year may still represent the maximum drawdown of this cycle. K33 Research Head Vetle Lunde pointed out that unlike the bear market rallies in 2014, 2018, and 2022, this market experienced a slow recovery lasting 189 days after breaking below the 200-day moving average. Furthermore, market leverage and risk appetite have not been quickly rebuilt. Therefore, the current trend resembles a moderate correction rather than a precursor to another sharp decline.K33 also noted that institutional fund flows still reflect a defensive sentiment. The latest 13F filings show that institutional investors reduced their holdings by a total of approximately 26,733 BTC in the first quarter, while retail investors increased their holdings by about 19,395 BTC. Neutral strategy institutions like Jane Street and Millennium accounted for most of this reduction. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded the ninth-largest five-day capital outflow since the launch of U.S. spot ETFs. K33 believes this typically occurs when BTC is near the cost basis of ETF holdings, reflecting investors' tendency to cut losses or reduce risk exposure after experiencing significant drawdowns. (The Block)
on-chain analyst Yujin posted on Platform X, stating that current market trading enthusiasm is now much lower than it was at the bottom of the last bear market (December 2022). This is despite the fact that prices of several major cryptocurrencies are still far higher than they were at that time.BTC: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume for BTC/USDT on Binance was around $20 billion. Now it is only about $5 billion. The current price is 4.5 times higher than the previous bottom. The correction magnitude last cycle was -75%, while from the peak to now in this cycle, it is -38%.ETH: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume for ETH/USDT was around $4 billion. Now it is only about $2 billion. The current price is 1.7 times higher than the previous bottom. The correction magnitude last cycle was -75%, while from the peak to now in this cycle, it is -54%.BNB: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume for BNB/USDT was around $50 million. Now it is roughly at the same level. The current price is 2.7 times higher than the previous bottom. The correction magnitude last cycle was -65%, while from the peak to now in this cycle, it is -50%.
Odaily, CryptoQuant.com posted on X platform, stating that BTC’s current pullback remains higher than the previous panic selling lows. This does not guarantee further declines, but the current situation still shows a substantial difference from past cyclical lows.
According to the Aave Governance Forum, Gordon Liao, a Circle team member, has submitted an ARFC proposal recommending a two-step adjustment to the USDC interest rate model parameters on Aave v3 Ethereum Core to address the current liquidity shortage in the USDC pool. Current context: Following the rsETH incident on April 18, the USDC pool utilization has remained persistently near 100%, with available liquidity falling below $3 million. The borrowing rate has been stuck at the 14% cap for an extended period, and the pool’s total supply has contracted by approximately $60 million over the past 24 hours. As a result, the market is unable to clear via price mechanisms. The proposal’s core measures are as follows: Step 1 (to be executed immediately by Risk Administrators): Increase Slope 2 from 10% to 40%, decrease the optimal utilization rate from 92% to 87%, and temporarily suspend the Slope 2 risk oracle for USDC. Step 2 (to be completed within 5–7 days via governance vote): Further increase Slope 2 to 50% and reduce the optimal utilization rate to 85%. The proposal argues that many current borrowers are insensitive to interest rates and primarily borrow to bypass withdrawal queues and exit positions. Active leverage, meanwhile, is key to attracting new suppliers. Raising the maximum supply rate to the 40%–50% range is expected to draw in USDC liquidity within hours, driving utilization below the kink point and restoring the market’s normal clearing functionality.
Odaily News Arkham posted on the X platform, stating that it has identified the on-chain wallet address of Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), becoming the first platform to publicly identify the on-chain BTC holdings of this ETF, enabling users to track fund inflows and outflows in real-time.It is reported that the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF was listed on NYSE Arca on April 8, with Coinbase and BNY Mellon serving as custodians. According to Arkham tracking data, it currently holds 1,348 BTC, valued at approximately $103.92 million.
Crypto analyst Ali published a detailed analysis on X, arguing that rather than debating whether Bitcoin has hit its bottom, market participants should focus on whether the current volatility represents a “generation-defining entry opportunity.” Based on long-term trend lines, on-chain liquidity, and cost distribution metrics, Ali delineates the core “value range” for this cycle. On the support side, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows a significant concentration of coins in the $63,111–$70,685 range, forming the current primary support zone; if price breaks below $63,111, the market may enter a liquidity vacuum. From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin is approaching the key upward trend line from the past decade (approximately $56,000–$60,000), a level historically associated with accumulation phases preceding major rallies.