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Odaily报道, “BTC OG insider whale” Garrett Jin has released his “Weekly Market Strategy Signal.” In his analysis, he points out that the current geopolitical situation and the trajectory of the US dollar are deadlocked: despite US strikes on Iranian-related targets, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. Although US Secretary of State Rubio signaled “positive news,” the peace agreement proposed by Iran has already been vetoed by the White House.Long-term US Treasury yields continue to hover in the 5.07% – 5.18% range, reaching their highest levels in 19 years. The S&P 500 index briefly hit a new high before quickly pulling back. Garrett Jin believes that a single positive or negative catalyst is insufficient to change the market landscape. Only when at least two of the three key factors—the credit environment, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical conditions—converge can the market experience a substantial shift.On another front, capital expenditure in the AI sector is accelerating its shift from the United States to Asia. ByteDance plans to increase its capital expenditure to as high as $70 billion this year, while Tencent and Alibaba are also ramping up their investments. Competition in the AI arena has now escalated to the level of national competition.
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen from approximately $63,000 to over $80,000 in the past three months, with multiple key indicators now converging on an $85,000 target. On-chain, BTC has broken above two critical support levels—the “Realized Market Value” ($78,200) and the “Short-Term Holder Cost Basis” ($79,100). Research firm Glassnode notes that the next resistance level lies near the Active Realized Price of $85,200. In the futures market, funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral, signaling a clear retreat of prior large-scale short pressure and rising risk of a short squeeze. In the options market, market makers hold roughly $2 billion in “short gamma” exposure near $82,000; rising prices will compel them to continuously hedge by buying BTC, generating positive feedback. However, analysts caution that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with U.S. tech equities—should equity markets shift toward risk-aversion, upward momentum could be dampened.