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According to CoinDesk, data from Blockware Intelligence shows that listed Bitcoin miners held a total of 127,000 BTC at the beginning of the year, which has now decreased to 99,000. Cumulative sell-offs within the year amount to approximately 28,000 BTC, valued at about $1.78 billion at current prices. Analysis points out that although this sell-off volume is smaller than the net outflows of over $4.4 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, against the backdrop of a market downturn and weak buying pressure, the impact of consistent, steady marginal selling pressure on prices is often underestimated. BTC has cumulatively declined 27% since the beginning of 2026, underperforming major assets including the S&P 500. Furthermore, impacted by narrowing mining profits (the current average production cost per BTC is approximately $74,300), an increasing number of miners are pivoting to AI computing power businesses. Meanwhile, network-wide mining difficulty has dropped by about 18% from its November peak, and mining revenue for remaining miners has correspondingly increased by about 18%, as the industry competitive landscape is being reshaped.
Odaily News: Bitcoin's volatility has recently neared zero, but market risks have not been resolved. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have not seen any outflows in the first week of August, with cumulative net inflows of approximately $754 million. However, Bitcoin's price remains around $64,700, while the options market is heavily focused on downside protection near $62,000 and $63,000.Market signals are showing divergence: on one hand, demand for spot ETFs has picked up again; on the other hand, derivatives traders are positioning in advance for a potential pullback, especially ahead of the latest U.S. employment data release.However, looking at the overall positioning structure, the market still leans bullish. Bitcoin call options account for approximately 60.7% of total open interest, indicating that investors' long-term expectations remain positive, with recent trading more concentrated on short-term risk hedging. Meanwhile, the cost of volatility protection remains low. Deribit's DVOL index, which reflects Bitcoin's expected volatility over the next 30 days, is currently around 35—a significant drop from the high of 90 earlier this year—suggesting that the market sees limited potential for major swings in the short term.That said, U.S. macroeconomic data could break this balance. The market expects U.S. non-farm payrolls for July to increase by approximately 97,500, up from 57,000 in June, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.2%. If the employment data comes in stronger than expected, it could push U.S. Treasury yields higher and reinforce expectations of Fed rate hikes; if the data is weak, it could push yields down, but also heighten concerns about slowing economic growth.Currently, the Bitcoin market presents a pattern of "ETF inflows underpinning spot prices while the options market hedges against downside." Potential risks remain a concern in a low-volatility environment. With low market participation and insufficient liquidity, even small changes in supply or demand could trigger sharp swings in asset prices. (CoinDesk)
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has fallen to the 36% long-term support bottom, with prices trading in a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, warned that in a low-volatility environment, declining trading costs actually attract traders to establish large-scale directional bets and hedge positions. Once the market breaks through key levels, market makers' passive hedging will accelerate price volatility, leading to a mean-reverting rebound in volatility. Regarding market sentiment, Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that current demand for put options has significantly weakened, but call option buying is also absent—Glassnode describes this as "no one is paying for upside, and no one is paying for downside," believing this is typically a signal that the market is approaching a cycle bottom. The divergence in price trends between DOGE and BTC also confirms the continued absence of speculative sentiment. Howard stated that the next significant catalyst could be institutional ETF fund inflows driven by positive regulatory developments such as the Clarity Act, while a breakdown in Strait of Hormuz negotiations and inflation shocks constitute major downside risks.
According to Glassnode data reported by Odaily, the $63,000 level is emerging as a key support and battleground zone for Bitcoin (BTC) in the current market. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has continued to trade within the $60,000 to $67,000 range, with over 3% of BTC's circulating supply—approximately 515,000 BTC—having a cost basis concentrated near $63,000. Additionally, more than 362,000 BTC is concentrated in the $61,000 area. Glassnode notes that only the $78,000 to $82,000 range currently has a higher supply density than this zone, corresponding to Bitcoin's May cyclical peak.Furthermore, Bitcoin's current price nearly coincides with the 200-week moving average. Glassnode data shows that the 200-week MA currently stands at approximately $63,657, while BTC's price is around $63,822, indicating significant historical accumulation and strong cost support in this area.Looking at the 30-day cumulative Accumulation Trend Score, all types of investors are currently in a net accumulation state, with retail buying momentum being the most pronounced. Meanwhile, whale addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC continue to increase their positions, suggesting that long-term capital is still positioning itself. The $63,000 level has become a critical price band in Bitcoin's short-term market structure, and investor accumulation behavior may provide important reference for future price movements. (CoinDesk)
According to CoinDesk, well-known CNBC host Jim Cramer announced this week his plan to liquidate all Bitcoin holdings, citing the rapid development of quantum computing technology as a potential threat to cryptocurrency security within the next three to four years. This statement originated from his interview on July 31 with IBM Chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna, who warned that quantum computers could challenge modern cryptographic systems within that timeframe. However, the crypto community generally remains optimistic about this. Alex, a self-proclaimed Bitcoin maximalist and X user, stated bluntly: "Cramer is at it again; this is the strongest buy signal Bitcoin has received for 2026." This reaction is closely linked to Cramer's long-standing market reputation as a "contrarian indicator"—his historical prediction record is notorious: in 2017, he called Bitcoin "Monopoly money"; in 2021, BTC hit an all-time high shortly after he liquidated his holdings; in 2024, he warned of a plunge following the ETF launch, yet BTC rose to $70,000 within two months. Currently, the BTC price remains steady near $64,000, with the market showing a muted reaction to his quantum warning.
According to CoinDesk, a wallet associated with Trump Media recently transferred 2,628 Bitcoin to Crypto.com, valued at approximately $165 million at the time. Following the transfer, approximately 4,261 Bitcoin remained in the on-chain traceable wallet, an amount basically consistent with the scale of Bitcoin pledged as collateral for convertible notes previously disclosed by the company.
Odaily News As Bitcoin prices have experienced a significant correction, publicly listed companies that had accumulated large BTC holdings are facing multiple challenges, including falling stock prices, debt pressures, and a deteriorating financing environment. Some of these companies are now starting to sell Bitcoin, repay debts, and even pivot towards artificial intelligence (AI) data center operations.Strategy pioneered the "Digital Asset Treasury (DAT)" model, continuously purchasing Bitcoin through financing and borrowing, inspiring a wave of other listed companies to follow suit. However, as the BTC price has fallen approximately 50% from its peak of around $126,000 in October 2025, the stock prices of related companies have also shrunk significantly, forcing them to reassess their BTC accumulation strategies.This week, shareholders of London-listed company Satsuma Technology approved the liquidation of all 668 BTC, returning capital to shareholders, while proceeding with delisting. Another London-listed company, The Smarter Web Company, sold 178 BTC to repay its convertible debt.Additionally, Sequans Communications has sold 1,025 BTC and further sold nearly 80% of its remaining holdings to repay convertible bonds. The company stated it will not continue purchasing Bitcoin in the future and plans to sell the remaining approximately 658 BTC.Nakamoto's stock price has fallen approximately 99% since its SPAC listing in May 2025. The company recently sold about 284 BTC, raising approximately $20 million for working capital. Of its remaining approximately 5,342 BTC, nearly 70% has been pledged as collateral for loans from Kraken, which market observers believe poses a potential risk event.Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining companies are also adjusting their strategies. Companies like Bitdeer Technologies and MARA Holdings are selling portions of their BTC to repurchase shares, repay debts, and redirect energy resources and computing infrastructure towards AI data center operations.Other companies selling BTC include Empery Digital. Data shows that Strategy has recently sold approximately 3,620 BTC and has authorized further asset sales to maintain its U.S. dollar reserves.However, Strategy remains the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with holdings exceeding 840,000 BTC. The company's CEO, Michael Saylor, stated that while it may sell some Bitcoin in the future to pay dividends, this does not mean the company is exiting its Bitcoin investment.Beyond asset adjustments, management and capital operations at some Bitcoin treasury companies are also changing. Jack Mallers has stepped down as CEO; and Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company (BSTR), affiliated with Adam Back, failed to complete a proposed merger due to the deteriorating market environment.Analysts believe that with rising financing costs and increased BTC price volatility, the "borrowing to buy Bitcoin" treasury model is undergoing a reshuffle. Some companies are shifting from simply hoard
According to CoinDesk, Japanese investment bank Mizuho has downgraded stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) from "Neutral" to "Underperform," with the price target significantly lowered from $85 to $50. Circle's stock price subsequently fell 0.6% to $62.63. Mizuho analysts pointed out that the OpenUSD stablecoin launched by the Open Standard consortium on June 30 poses a fundamental threat to Circle's business model. Unlike the USDC model, which retains most reserve yield and then shares it with partners such as Coinbase and Binance, OpenUSD charges only a small operating fee and distributes the vast majority of reserve yield to issuers and distributors, which may force Circle's partners to demand a higher revenue share. The consortium has assembled over 140 partners, including Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, and BlackRock.
According to Odaily, BTC is approaching the lower support line of the long-standing power law price model, approximately $58,000, indicating it is nearing a historical accumulation zone. Bitcoin's undervaluation relative to its trend line and to gold has dropped to levels seen at the bottoms of 2018 and 2022, but Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer has not yet declared it to have bottomed.Timmer expects that, in the absence of a liquidity catalyst, Bitcoin may trade sideways near the support level for several months. He noted that speculative capital has rotated from Bitcoin into gold and is now flowing into semiconductor stocks. (CoinDesk).
Bitcoin and ether balances on centralized exchanges have fallen to multi-year lows. Analysts indicate that as a large amount of crypto assets have shifted to institutional custody, ETFs, DeFi protocols, and other on-chain uses, the reliability of this metric as a price signal has declined. At the same time, an increasing amount of Bitcoin and ether is being locked up by companies seeking long-term price appreciation. (CoinDesk).
according to Arkham Intelligence monitoring, SpaceX recently conducted Bitcoin wallet activity for the first time in approximately six months. However, the transfers were extremely small in scale, and no BTC was sent to exchange addresses, indicating that the company is not selling Bitcoin.Data shows that three transfers were made from SpaceX-related wallets. The largest was 0.00213 BTC, valued at approximately $135; another transfer was 0.00139 BTC, worth about $89. Additionally, the Coinbase Prime custody service replenished 0.000738 BTC, worth around $47, to a SpaceX address, likely to cover on-chain transaction fees.Currently, SpaceX still holds approximately 18,712 BTC, with a total value of about $1.16 billion. Analysts believe that such small transfers are typically wallet maintenance operations, such as replenishing Gas fees, consolidating address funds, or testing signing processes, rather than typical asset-selling behavior.SpaceX completed its IPO on June 12, becoming one of the largest IPOs in history, and disclosed its Bitcoin holdings in a public filing for the first time. Previously, Arkham Intelligence could only track approximately 8,285 BTC belonging to SpaceX, but the company's disclosed holding of 18,712 BTC is more than twice the amount previously identified on-chain. According to the disclosure, SpaceX's Bitcoin purchase cost was approximately $661 million, with an average cost of about $35,000 per BTC.Six to seven months prior, SpaceX wallets had conducted a larger transfer, where the company moved approximately 1,000 BTC in batches between its own wallets and the Coinbase Prime custody address. However, that transfer similarly did not send funds to exchanges.Currently, Elon Musk's companies SpaceX and Tesla collectively hold over 30,000 BTC. The market generally believes that only if SpaceX transfers Bitcoin to known exchange deposit addresses in the future could it potentially signal an adjustment to its BTC treasury strategy or a potential sale. (CoinDesk)
as the 25-day quiet period following SpaceX's (SPCX) June IPO comes to an end, Wall Street analysts have begun releasing formal research reports. Multiple major brokerages have issued favorable ratings, indicating institutional investors remain optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential.As IPO underwriters, both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have assigned buy-equivalent ratings to SpaceX. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a price target of $205, while Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas gave a target of $300. Additionally, institutions such as Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and UBS have also initiated coverage with buy or equivalent ratings. Among them, Raymond James Financial provided the most optimistic forecast; analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage of SpaceX with a "Strong Buy" rating and a price target as high as $800, believing SpaceX will become "one of the most representative industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century."Analysis suggests that market optimism towards SpaceX is primarily based on its布局 (layout/foundation) in areas such as rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and government contracts. At the same time, the company's communications business can provide a sustainable source of revenue and support future expansion of launch scale.As of March 31, 2026, SpaceX holds 18,712 Bitcoins. Wall Street believes that the concentrated coverage following the end of the IPO quiet period provides a window for institutional investors to conduct their first systematic assessment of SpaceX's valuation. The fact that nearly all major institutions simultaneously issued positive ratings is relatively rare for large-scale IPOs. (CoinDesk)
CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin has exhibited a clear "diminishing capital efficiency" characteristic across its historical bull and bear cycles. As the asset's scale expands, the price increase generated per unit of new capital continues to decline:In the 2011 cycle, approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows drove Bitcoin up by roughly 55,000%;In the 2015 cycle, approximately $69 billion corresponded to a roughly 10,000% gain;In the 2018 cycle, approximately $365 billion corresponded to a roughly 2,000% gain;In the current cycle starting from 2022, approximately $697 billion in capital has been attracted, but the gain is about 689%.The data is based on "Realized Capitalization," which values coins based on their price at their last movement, serving as an approximate measure of actual capital inflows. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that for Bitcoin to experience another parabolic rally, it may require over $1 trillion in new capital inflows, further solidifying its status as a macro asset rather than just an ETF-driven trading asset.Ki Young Ju also noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen net capital outflows, indicating that market structural demand is still in a transitional phase. Analysis suggests this trend reflects the natural decline in Bitcoin's marginal returns as its market capitalization expands. Unless larger-scale institutional capital steps in, achieving the high-multiple growth seen in earlier cycles will be difficult. (CoinDesk)
According to Glassnode data, long-term holders—wallets that have held coins for at least 155 days—have shifted from net distribution to net accumulation, indicating a recovery in BTC demand. Small and medium-sized wallets are leading a broad trend of buying the dip, while the largest whale wallets remain mostly neutral. Analysts say it is still too early to conclude that the market has entered a full accumulation phase. (CoinDesk).
According to CoinDesk, Wall Street bank Cantor Fitzgerald issued a research report indicating that the crypto market is entering the final phase of the current bear cycle. As of June 10, Bitcoin has declined approximately 51% from its 2025 peak, with 252 days having passed since the peak. Synthesizing the past three market cycles, BTC bottoms on average 384 days after the peak; based on this, the low point of this cycle is projected to appear around the end of October. Analysts also noted that the model is not a precise timing tool, and macro, regulatory, and geopolitical risks remain. Regarding network value assessment, Cantor believes Hyperliquid is the prime example of fee-driven token economics, Bitcoin remains the benchmark monetary asset, and Ethereum serves as the primary collateral layer for on-chain finance; Solana, Sui, XRP, and Zcash each possess differentiated advantages, but still need to prove that their ecosystem growth can translate into sustained token demand.
Bitcoin briefly dropped to $57,700, its lowest level since September 2024, before recovering to $58,800; the market saw $395 million in liquidations, with open interest rising to 768,000 BTC. On Deribit, put options across all maturities traded at a premium over call options, with one block trade betting on a Bitcoin put option expiring in September with a strike price of $50,000. (CoinDesk)
data shows XRP open interest has fallen from approximately $1.3 billion to below $150 million. Network and institutional-related indicators are improving, with daily active addresses rising about 72% from mid-June. On June 29, the XRP spot ETF recorded $15.34 million in inflows. (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading narrowly between $59,000 and $60,000 for the fifth consecutive day. However, analysts warn that this "calm" market condition may conceal greater risks, with the key issue being that this oscillation is occurring within a downtrend.FxPro's Chief Market Analyst, Alex Kuptsikevich, stated that the current price action resembles Bitcoin's consolidation between $55,000 and $70,000 from March to October 2024, but the contexts differ. The previous consolidation occurred in a rising market, whereas the current oscillation is below support levels. Additionally, both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are trending downward, indicating the market remains bearish.Kuptsikevich noted that if this consolidation pattern breaks to the downside, rather than forming a base for a rebound, Bitcoin's next significant support zone could be near the $40,000 level.On-chain data is also signaling pressure. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost indicated that long-term holders may be engaging in loss-making selling behavior. In historical cycles, this phase is typically accompanied by short-term pressure, but it may also become a long-term buying opportunity.Meanwhile, market demand remains relatively weak, with active address counts and on-chain transaction activity both at recent lows. Financial pressure on corporate Bitcoin giant Strategy has also heightened market concerns. Its preferred stock, STRC, recently fell to around $71, while its common stock dropped approximately 25% in a week, hitting its lowest level since February 2024.Strategy previously stated that it might sell over $1 billion worth of its Bitcoin reserves to improve its financial situation. This is seen as a significant shift from founder Michael Saylor's "never sell" strategy.Additionally, a strengthening US dollar and continued capital flows into AI-related assets in the US stock market are exerting pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets like Bitcoin. BTC is currently on track to end the second quarter with a decline of approximately 13%, while US stocks remain strong due to the AI investment boom. (CoinDesk)
Blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis has released a new methodological proposal aimed at establishing a unified on-chain fund tracking standard framework for law enforcement agencies and investigators to identify address clusters and determine their probable control relationships.The proposal defines the on-chain analysis structure in the form of an "ontology," centralizing the systematic decomposition of the currently industry-wide non-standardized concept of "cluster" (address clustering) into wallet segments and functional roles. It describes on-chain relationships through a two-tier structure: the first layer defines the transaction graph structure, and the second layer assesses the inferred confidence level.Chainalysis states that the framework aims to enhance the interpretability and legal applicability of on-chain forensic methods and has been validated through its practical experience in cases related to the U.S. Department of Justice, including analysis applied in the Bitcoin Fog mixing service case. The company's Chief Scientist, Jacob Illum, noted that the proposal's goal is to answer "on what evidentiary basis can these addresses be considered to belong to the same entity," but emphasized that on-chain analysis alone cannot directly identify end-user identities and must still be combined with legal investigative methods involving centralized entities such as exchanges.Chainalysis stated that the standard proposal is currently open for industry discussion, aiming to promote a more unified technical standard for on-chain analysis methods in the fields of law enforcement and compliance. (CoinDesk)
OdailyOdaily reports that the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine stated it has, for the first time, transferred approximately $8.3 million worth of USDT crypto assets into the national asset management system, marking the country's first official takeover of seized crypto assets. The funds originate from an investigation into an international hacking group, which is alleged to have laundered money through high-value real estate and other assets. The assets were received by the Asset Recovery and Management Agency (ARMA) of Ukraine, with the transfer completed pursuant to a court order.Officials stated that this operation marks a significant step for Ukraine in the regulation and management of crypto assets, and aligns with ongoing discussions regarding the establishment of a strategic crypto reserve. Previous data indicates that Ukraine ranked among the top in Europe in terms of crypto transaction volume between 2024 and 2025.However, the relevant assets are currently in a "custodial" state and have not been legally forfeited; subsequent judicial conviction procedures are still required. Analysts believe that the mechanism of this move is similar to the path of the United States using criminally forfeited crypto assets to build a potential strategic reserve. (CoinDesk)