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According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
According to The Block, bipartisan Senators Thom Tillis (Republican) and Ruben Gallego (Democrat) submitted a new ethics compromise proposal to the White House on Thursday morning local time, attempting to break the deadlock in advancing the Clarity Act cryptocurrency legislation. Currently, there is less than a week left until the Senate recesses on August 7, but the bill still has not obtained the 60 votes required for passage. Democrats insist on adding stricter ethics provisions to constrain the Trump family's crypto interests, including the Meme coins they issued and the World Liberty Financial project in which the family participates, while some Republican senators have objections to the stablecoin interest provisions, worrying that it will divert deposits from traditional banks to the crypto sector. Although the draft leaked last week prohibited public officials and their spouses from issuing digital assets, it did not cover other family members, and included a "sunset clause" expiring in January 2029, which critics believe essentially nullifies the entire ethics provision. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent subsequently blamed the Democrats on X, stating that they "chose political gaming on the verge of a major victory". The Crypto Innovation Committee (CCI) warned that if the bill fails to pass, the US will hand over its global leadership position in the field of crypto regulation.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
Fox Business crypto journalist posted on X that former NCUA Chairman Rodney Hood stated last week that credit unions play an important role in modernizing the financial system. A few days later, AmericasCUs, along with credit union leagues in all 50 U.S. states, supported the vast majority of the Clarity Act. However, they echoed the banking industry's concerns regarding the bill's stablecoin yield provisions, urging senators to strengthen the language. These groups believe that the current Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise could still allow for "functionally passive" reward structures, potentially causing deposits to flow out of local credit unions.
Mizuho analysts stated that if the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act," is passed, while it may generally benefit the digital asset industry, the long-term impact on Circle could be negative. The reason is that regulatory clarity will attract more large institutions into the stablecoin market, further accelerating stablecoin commodification and eroding the revenue potential of Circle's USDC.Mizuho believes that the primary pressure Circle faces in the near term comes from Open USD. This stablecoin project is backed by a coalition of over 140 financial, technology, and crypto companies, with members including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, and Coinbase. Unlike Circle's model, which retains approximately 38% of USDC reserve yields, Open USD employs a "pass-through" model, distributing nearly all reserve yields to distribution partners while retaining only a small management fee.Analysts also noted that Coinbase, as the largest distributor of USDC, also supports Open USD. This could give Coinbase stronger bargaining power when renegotiating its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle in the future. The distribution agreement between the two parties could be up for renegotiation as early as next month.
BitMine 董事长 Tom Lee 发推表示，当前加密市场面临多重宏观逆风，包括市场预期美联储加息、Clarity Act 立法进程悬而未决、AI 热潮分流资金以及私人信贷压制资金流入；但顺风因素同样存在，代币化趋势持续升温、加密货币受益于 AI 发展、货币数字化进程加速，且当前市场情绪极度悲观或已接近阶段性底部。
Odaily Bitcoin continued its decline this week, recently trading at $60,619, approximately 12.6% lower than its closing price of around $69,355 on November 5, 2024, the day of the US election. It briefly dipped below $60,000 for the first time since 2024, falling nearly 52% from its all-time high. After Trump's re-election in 2024, Bitcoin surged above $75,000 and reached approximately $109,000 in January 2025. In October 2025, Bitcoin hit a high of $126,080 before dropping from above $121,000 to $106,000 amid a $19 billion liquidation event in the crypto market. In January 2026, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows exceeding $1.5 billion. Michael Saylor's Strategy sold 32 Bitcoins worth approximately $2.5 million at the end of May. Trump recently stated that he would not let the crypto industry down. The GENIUS Act was signed into law last year, while the Clarity Act, which passed a committee vote in May, has yet to complete the legislative process. (Decrypt)
According to The Block, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted in his latest weekly report that as the Nasdaq-100 Index has surged 43% year-to-date and AI-related stocks continue attracting capital, the crypto market is undergoing a shift—from “momentum trading” to “contrarian bets.” Investors must adopt a long-term perspective and focus on fundamentals. Hougan also observed that during this crypto winter, capital has not flowed into mainstream safe-haven assets like Bitcoin; instead, it has poured into mid- and small-cap tokens with distinctive narratives—such as Hyperliquid (up 72% month-to-date), Zcash (up 50%), and Stellar (up 44%). Additionally, he emphasized that uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act—a proposed legislative framework for crypto market structure—remains a key constraint on institutional capital inflows. Galaxy analysts and Polymarket both estimate the bill’s passage probability at roughly 50–55%. A sustainable rally in major crypto assets may only materialize after the legislation is enacted.
Investment bank TD Cowen stated that as the relevant political environment continues to deteriorate, the likelihood of the US crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act," passing this year is declining.TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg pointed out that while the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill earlier this month, this does not signify a substantive bipartisan agreement; rather, it merely pushes the controversy to the full Senate floor.The report indicated that the escalating controversies surrounding US President Donald Trump and his administration related to crypto in recent days are making it harder for Democrats to support the bill. If the bill does not include clear conflict-of-interest provisions, it will face even greater difficulty in gaining sufficient support in the current political environment.
the U.S. Senate Banking Committee has advanced the crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, by a vote of 15 to 9. The bill aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the crypto industry at the federal level for the first time, garnering support from Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks.While the industry generally views the committee's passage as positive progress, analysts believe the bill still faces significant obstacles before becoming law. TD Cowen has raised the bill's passage probability from approximately one-third to 40%, noting that some Democratic lawmakers are showing willingness to find a path to support it, though substantive disagreements have not been fully resolved.Previously, the bill had long been affected by issues such as stablecoin yield arrangements, conflicts of interest, and ethical provisions. Additionally, to overcome a filibuster in the Senate, the bill will need to secure more Democratic support than it currently has. Benchmark analysts also pointed out that the current number of supporting votes is insufficient to ensure its eventual passage. (The Block)
CoinShares tweeted that the cryptocurrency market saw a net outflow of $920 million this week. In the short term, macroeconomic headwinds continue to dominate: PPI data came in higher than expected, U.S.-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher, and the Federal Reserve’s room for rate cuts is constrained—Bitcoin fell 1.4% this week. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed the Clarity Act by a vote of 15–9, bringing long-term regulatory direction into sharper focus. CoinShares noted that the market is currently caught in a tug-of-war between short-term macro pressures and long-term regulatory tailwinds.
According to The Block, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, noted that three enterprise-grade blockchains—Arc (by Circle), Canton Network, and Tempo (by Stripe)—have collectively raised over $1 billion in funding recently. All three funding rounds occurred after the signing of the GENIUS Act in July 2025. Hougan believes this legislation broke a prior regulatory stalemate that had discouraged institutional capital from entering the space. Hougan identified three key signals: First, all three blockchains prioritize native privacy-preserving transactions as a core design feature, addressing institutions’ need for transaction confidentiality. Second, the implementation of the GENIUS Act has significantly reduced regulatory uncertainty; the next critical variable is the pending Clarity Act, from which stablecoins and tokenization infrastructure stand to benefit. Third, these blockchains are backed by top-tier institutions—including Goldman Sachs, Citadel, BlackRock, Stripe, and Visa—marking a stark contrast to Ethereum and Solana, which emerged from grassroots origins. Hougan stated that his firm’s capital remains primarily allocated to native crypto projects, and he believes these emerging enterprise chains will raise the overall competitive bar and attract additional capital inflows.
CoinShares data shows crypto funds saw net inflows of $858 million last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of inflows and the largest single-week inflow since the end of April. Among them, Bitcoin funds attracted over $700 million in a single week, with year-to-date inflows reaching $4.9 billion, indicating sustained growth in institutional investor demand for the crypto market.Market analysis suggests that positive expectations related to the "Clarity Act" have driven an improvement in institutional sentiment. Currently, BTC prices remain above the $80,000 mark, with the market watching for a potential breakout of the 200-day moving average near $82,000. Marex analysts point out that if Bitcoin manages a daily close above $82,000 accompanied by stable spot buying, it could initiate a new upward trend.In the altcoin space, SUI rose 12% in 24 hours to $1.26. Mysten Labs co-founder Adeniyi Abiodun revealed that Sui plans to launch confidential transaction features this year to support fee-free private payments. Additionally, Nasdaq-listed Sui Group Holdings (SUIG) previously announced that it has staked most of its reserve SUI, effectively reducing the circulating market supply by approximately 2.7%. (CoinDesk)
The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that the probability of Polymarket's "CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026" has risen to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours.The event contract rules state: If the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No." The primary source of information is the Congress.gov website (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.Coinbase has indicated that key disagreements regarding stablecoin holding yield provisions have been resolved with traditional banking institutions, clearing the way for the U.S. Senate to advance the crypto market structure bill. Previously, banks had lobbied to restrict or prohibit exchanges from offering yields to stablecoin holders, primarily due to concerns over capital outflows from the deposit banking system. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad stated that the final plan, while adding some restrictions, still preserves room for users to earn rewards through crypto platforms and networks based on actual usage scenarios. This development is expected to push the CLARITY Act toward a voting process in the Senate Banking Committee.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
Coinbase stated a key disagreement over stablecoin yield provisions has been resolved with traditional banks, clearing a path for the U.S. Senate to advance a crypto market structure bill. Previously, banks had lobbied to restrict or prohibit exchanges from offering yields to stablecoin holders, primarily over concerns about funds flowing out of the bank deposit system. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad said the final compromise, while adding some restrictions, still preserves users' ability to earn rewards through crypto platforms and networks based on actual use cases. This progress is expected to move the "Clarity Act" toward a vote in the Senate Banking Committee, further clarifying the regulatory responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC over crypto assets. (Bloomberg)
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill—the Clarity Act—has seen no significant public progress over the past month and is not expected to achieve a breakthrough in April. The report notes that if the bill is to pass before the election, May 25—Memorial Day—is viewed as a critical milestone for advancement; after that date, members of Congress will gradually shift into campaign mode, leaving less time for legislative work. At present, it remains unclear whether the Senate Banking Committee will move forward with related hearings. Issues such as stablecoin yields and other outstanding matters have also yet to be publicly resolved. Even if these disagreements are addressed, the House of Representatives would still need to vote on the bill again.
Odaily Odaily: U.S. President Trump stated at a private event for TRUMP Meme coin holders held at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida that the White House will not allow banking lobbying groups to hinder the progress of the crypto market structure bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. He said the crypto industry has entered the mainstream, declaring "America is the leader in crypto," and that banks should not obstruct the establishment of stablecoin and crypto regulatory frameworks.Dubbed the "most exclusive meeting in the world," the event invited hundreds of large TRUMP coin holders. Guests included Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood, Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley, and boxing champion Mike Tyson. Previously, the U.S. banking industry had expressed concerns that stablecoin reward mechanisms could impact traditional deposit businesses, which had slowed the legislative process. (CoinDesk)