News linked to both this project and an event.
According to an independent analyst report by Markus Thielen on June 9, just days remain before SpaceX’s IPO, and market expectations continue to intensify. There is currently little indication that SpaceX will raise its expected offering price of $135, suggesting the targeted fundraising amount of $7.5 billion has already been substantially subscribed. Meanwhile, pre-IPO synthetic perpetual contracts tied to SpaceX are trading at $157 on Hyperliquid and $169 on Binance—both significantly above the expected offering price—with implied valuations on both platforms approaching $2 trillion. Although prices have retreated from earlier highs near $200, prediction markets still assign a 68% probability that SpaceX’s valuation will exceed $2 trillion by year-end, reflecting traders’ broad expectation of a strong IPO performance.
BIT Group posted on X platform, stating that with only days remaining until the SpaceX IPO, market expectations are heating up, with a general consensus that the stock is likely to perform well post-listing. Unlike many recent IPOs, there are currently few signs that SpaceX will raise its offering price, indicating that the target fundraising amount of $75 billion has already received fairly sufficient subscription coverage.Meanwhile, SpaceX-related pre-IPO synthetic perpetual contracts are trading at around $157 on Hyperliquid (calculated based on the old 11.9 billion share count) and quoting $169 on Binance, both significantly higher than the expected IPO price of $135. Although prices have fallen from around $200 a few days ago and undergone a repricing, the current implied valuations on both platforms still approach nearly $2 trillion, indicating that traders still anticipate a strong market debut for SpaceX. Prediction markets are also leaning towards optimism, with the current probability of SpaceX's valuation exceeding $2 trillion by the end of the year standing at 68%.
According to independent analyst Markus Thielen, Strategy’s recent small-scale Bitcoin sale following its May earnings call was interpreted by the market as a test of market reaction and the flexibility of its capital allocation strategy. Analysts noted that while Strategy remains highly bullish on Bitcoin, the success and expansion of its STRC preferred stock financing instrument may take precedence in its overall financial arrangements. This move breaks the company’s “buy-only, never-sell” market image maintained for nearly six years; given Strategy’s strong influence on Bitcoin demand, this shift is quietly reshaping market expectations.
BIT has pointed out that the market is repricing around SpaceX's potential largest-ever IPO, with a target valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. However, expectations in the secondary market have already been revised upwards to around $2.3 trillion, corresponding to a premium of approximately 34% on the Pre-IPO contracts traded on Binance and Hyperliquid.The market pricing logic has shifted from a "rocket company" to an "AI + Global Connectivity + Space Infrastructure Platform." As SpaceX integrates into the xAI asset system, its total addressable market (TAM) has expanded to approximately $28.5 trillion. This includes an AI-related market of roughly $26.5 trillion, a global connectivity network of about $1.6 trillion, while traditional space business accounts for only $400 billion. The core business, Starlink, generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, a 50% year-over-year increase, with an EBITDA margin of 63%. However, its ARPU has declined from $99 to $66, reflecting the rebalancing pressure between growth and profitability structure.In the long term, the core of the market's bet remains the expansion of the space economy. The global space economy is expected to grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2033, with the integration of satellite networks, orbital data, and AI computing infrastructure seen as the main growth driver. SpaceX's current valuation is already highly discounting future expectations. In the short term, attention must be paid to valuation and liquidity constraints. However, looking at the medium to long term, the "AI + Space + Communications Infrastructure" convergence narrative it represents could still become one of the core themes in the next phase of the tech capital market.
BIT Official released a chart analysis stating that the crypto market has already begun pricing in the SpaceX IPO ahead of time.The chart shows that SpaceX plans to IPO on June 12 with a valuation of approximately $1.74 trillion, nearly 40% higher than its latest internal valuation of $1.25 trillion. Currently, Hyperliquid and Binance have successively launched SpaceX-related perpetual contracts, with the implied valuation corresponding to the relevant market price standing at approximately $2.41 trillion.Markus Thielen believes this indicates the market is betting that SpaceX will complete its IPO at a higher valuation or deliver a strong performance after listing. Meanwhile, he pointed out that the launch of such contract products also reflects the deepening integration of the crypto market with traditional finance, as crypto trading platforms gradually expand their trading exposure to stocks and popular primary market themes.
BIT has released a chart stating that the cumulative acquisition cost of Bitcoin currently held by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is approximately $62 billion. Even though Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase over the past two quarters, the company has continued to raise funds through capital markets and used the proceeds to increase its BTC holdings.Historically, the correlation between Strategy's stock price and Bitcoin's price has been relatively tight. During bull markets, Strategy's stock price is more sensitive to changes in Bitcoin's price, showing greater upward elasticity and often delivering more prominent relative performance. However, when market momentum weakens, the stock price can sometimes weaken earlier than Bitcoin.Currently, there is a certain divergence in the performance of Strategy and Bitcoin. If historical patterns still apply, such divergence is worth continuous attention. Should the two converge again in the future, it could imply an improvement in Strategy's relative performance compared to Bitcoin, but this change remains dependent on the overall market environment.