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ETH Ushers in "Golden July"? Institutions and Supply-Demand Dynamics Could Become New Catalysts for Ethereum's "New Cycle"

Odaily News, Sharplink research director Steven Ehrlich stated on platform X that Ethereum (ETH) has started July 2026 with strong momentum, gaining approximately 11% so far this month. Historical data suggests investors should pay attention to ETH's July performance. Over the past 10 years, ETH has posted gains in July on four occasions, with an average increase of 43% in those months. Since 2020, July has been ETH's strongest-performing month, with an average gain of about 27%, leading all other months.The core advantage of ETH's July performance is not simply volatility but the asymmetry between gains and losses: when July is positive, the average gain is approximately 43%; in losing years, the average decline is only about 5% (2020 to 2025). Historically, strong Julys for ETH have often coincided with Ethereum-specific catalysts:July 2020: Gained 54%, marking the launch of "DeFi Summer." Compound introduced the COMP token, triggering a yield farming frenzy. DeFi total value locked (TVL) surged from about $1 billion to $4 billion within weeks, DEX monthly trading volume grew by 174%, and ETH benefited as the foundational infrastructure of DeFi.July 2022: Gained 58%. The timeline for The Merge upgrade was confirmed on July 14, market sentiment rebounded from the post-LUNA and 3AC crisis low, and approximately $337 million in short positions were liquidated within 3 days.July 2025: Gained 49%. The US GENIUS Act was signed, spot ETH ETFs recorded a record monthly inflow of approximately $5.4 billion, corporate capital accelerated its allocation to ETH, staking rate reached about 30%, and declining exchange balances contributed to supply tightness.Historically, ETH's strong monthly rallies have typically been driven by a combination of "Ethereum-specific catalysts plus supply-demand imbalance." For July 2026, Steven Ehrlich believes the current market environment presents similar opportunities:1. Institutional infrastructure is being built. EthLabs (protocol R&D) and Ethereum Institutional were recently launched to drive institutional participation in the on-chain ecosystem, with participants including Sharplink, BitMine, and Joe Lubin.2. The Ethereum roadmap continues to upgrade. Vitalik Buterin proposed the "Lean Ethereum" plan on July 4, aiming to simplify Ethereum's architecture, increase speed, and enhance quantum resistance over the next 3 to 4 years. Its significance is comparable to The Merge.3. Corporate capital continues to accumulate ETH. Digital asset reserve companies are still actively building their ETH positions. Sharplink currently holds 886,725 ETH, added 10,000 ETH in purchases last week, and stated its goal is to increase the amount of ETH per share.Steven Ehrlich stated that Ethereum is entering a new phase of development, where institutional adoption, technological upgrades, and capital allocation may become key factors driving ETH's price action.

Tom Lee: SpaceX Lockup Unlock is a Good Opportunity to Build Positions, Not Advised to Chase Highs in the Short Term

Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, said in an interview that he will not set a specific price target for SpaceX because the company's growth is primarily focused on the future. Setting a target now would be equivalent to discounting 20 years of future growth into the present, which amounts to speculation.Tom Lee specifically mentioned the upcoming share unlock. He suggested that original investors are likely to create selling pressure by hedging their positions, but this selling pressure could turn into a good buying opportunity. Tom Lee believes that one should not chase high prices for SpaceX in the short term, and that using the pullback triggered by the unlock to build positions is a suitable strategy.

Tom Lee:加密市场情绪触及 FTX 崩盘以来最低点,但顺风因素仍在

BitMine 董事长 Tom Lee 发推表示,当前加密市场面临多重宏观逆风,包括市场预期美联储加息、Clarity Act 立法进程悬而未决、AI 热潮分流资金以及私人信贷压制资金流入;但顺风因素同样存在,代币化趋势持续升温、加密货币受益于 AI 发展、货币数字化进程加速,且当前市场情绪极度悲观或已接近阶段性底部。

Strategy holds $50.842 billion in BTC, BitMine bought $44.63 million in ETH last week

on-chain analyst Ember CN posted on platform X, stating that MicroStrategy did not make any BTC purchases last week. Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) currently holds a total of 847,363 BTC, valued at $50.842 billion, with an average cost price of $75,651, an unrealized loss of $13.262 billion, and an unrealized loss rate of 20.7%. Ethereum treasury company BitMine (BMNR) last week purchased 27,084 ETH at approximately $1,648 each, valued at $44.63 million. It currently holds a total of 5.70004 million ETH, valued at $8.978 billion, with an average cost price of $3,399, an unrealized loss of $10.397 billion, and an unrealized loss rate of 53.6%.

Strategy's Bitcoin position floating loss reaches $2.932 billion, BitMine's Ethereum position floating loss hits $8.116 billion

on-chain analyst Ember CN posted on X, stating that Strategy sold 32 BTC for the first time last week at a price of approximately $77,135, totaling $2.47 million. Currently, it holds a total of 843,706 BTC, valued at $60.936 billion, with an average cost of $75,699, resulting in a floating loss of $2.932 billion, or a decline of 4.6%. BitMNR purchased 26,497 ETH last week at a price of approximately $2,061, totaling $54.61 million. Currently, it holds a total of 5,416,901 ETH, valued at $10.763 billion, with an average cost of $3,485, resulting in a floating loss of $8.116 billion, or a decline of 43%.

Analysis: After ETH broke below $2,000, retail investors continued “buying the dip,” but the market may fall further to $1,750.

According to Cointelegraph, Ethereum has broken below the $2,000 mark—the first time since March. Despite the ongoing price weakness, on-chain data indicates retail investors’ “buy-the-dip” sentiment continues to intensify. Santiment notes that historically, excessively optimistic retail sentiment often signals the market has not yet bottomed; genuine buying opportunities typically emerge during phases of market panic. On-chain data platform Glassnode shows that since 2026, whale addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH have reduced their holdings by over 5%. However, BitMine—founded by Tom Lee—still holds approximately 5.21 million ETH, representing roughly 4.31% of the total supply. Technically, ETH has broken below its ascending wedge pattern; analysts believe it may next test the $1,750 level, implying roughly an 18% further downside from current prices.

Tom Lee: Bitmine Could Be Added to Russell 1000 Index, Passive Capital Allocation Expectations Rise

Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee stated in a post on platform X that FTSE Russell has announced the preliminary list of index additions and deletions, and BitMine Immersion Technologies (ticker: BMNR) has been included in the list of companies under consideration for inclusion in the large-cap Russell 1000 Index.Tom Lee noted that Bitmine's current market capitalization has already exceeded the $5.7 billion threshold for inclusion in the Russell 1000 large-cap index. Since many active fund managers only invest in Russell 1000 components, if BMNR is officially added to the index, it could attract more institutional capital attention.Additionally, the market generally expects that approximately 20% to 25% of a stock's market capitalization is typically held by passive index funds and ETFs, meaning that eligibility for the Russell 1000 may further increase expectations for related passive capital inflows.

Bitmine Restakes Nearly 108,000 ETH, Total Staked Value Rises to $8.98 Billion

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), BitMine—the leading Ethereum treasury company—staked an additional 107,992 ETH, valued at $248 million, two hours ago. Its total staked ETH now stands at 3,923,389 ETH, valued at $8.98 billion.