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CME FedWatch: Probability of Fed Rate Hike in September Rises to 57%

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16 has risen to 57%, with the target rate range potentially rising to 3.75% to 4%; the probability of maintaining the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% stands at 43%.On August 21, the probability of a rate hike was 39.9%, which rose to 57% after the Jackson Hole speech on August 28, and market bets on a September rate cut have essentially disappeared.Polymarket data shows that the probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged is 52%, while the probability of a hike is 48%, with related trading volume exceeding $66.6 million. Kalshi data shows that the probabilities of holding rates steady and hiking are 52% and 48%, respectively, with related trading volume exceeding $23.8 million.In his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that the Fed will adhere to its 2% Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index inflation target, and noted that his commitment is to discipline rather than specific decisions. Data shows that the 12-month PCE inflation rate is 3.7%, and the 6-month reading is 4.1%. (Bitcoin.com News)

ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel: Central Bank Money Must Be on the Blockchain

Odaily News: Isabel Schnabel, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium that central bank reserves remain superior to stablecoins as the ultimate settlement asset, and that the ECB must place central bank reserves on the blockchain. She noted that stablecoins lack the independent capacity to rapidly expand liquidity during periods of financial stress.Schnabel stated that tokenization can make financial transactions faster, safer, and programmable, but only if central bank money operates on the same infrastructure as other tokenized assets. The ECB's Project Pontes is scheduled to launch in September 2026, initially connecting TARGET services with DLT platforms operated by market participants.Project Pontes will subsequently support direct settlement on DLT platforms operating within the Eurosystem, gradually incorporating smart contract functionality and 24/7 operation. Project Appia, meanwhile, is responsible for developing the long-term architecture, technical standards, and legal framework for the European tokenized asset market, with a complete blueprint expected by 2028. (Bitcoin.com News)

JaredfromSubway.eth sandwich attack bot has extracted $295 million in total, with $7.5 million stolen in June

Odaily News: The sandwich attack bot operated by JaredfromSubway.eth has extracted a cumulative total of 117,007 ETH since March 2023, worth approximately $295 million at current prices. In June 2026, an anonymous attacker deployed 66 counterfeit token contracts, exploiting the bot's automated trading logic to steal at least $7.5 million in ETH and stablecoins, and funneled the funds into Tornado Cash. The stolen assets have not yet been recovered.Sandwich attacks are a form of Maximal Extractable Value (MEV): the bot monitors large transactions in Ethereum's public mempool, buys ahead of the target transaction, and sells after the transaction pushes the price up, capturing profits from the spread. The bot's primary contract had received a cumulative total of 117,007 ETH as of August 28.MEV-Boost block construction is centralized among a small group of participants, with relay.ultrasound.money, Titan Relay, and bloXroute regulated relays collectively forwarding approximately 85% to 88% of related blocks within a 24-hour window; Titan's builder independently assembled 50.3% of the blocks. Monthly sandwich attack extraction amounts have declined from approximately $10 million in late 2024 to roughly $2.5 million in October 2025. (Bitcoin.com News)

2025 Investment Fraud Losses Exceed $8 Billion, New York State Warns of AI Deepfakes and Fake Crypto Projects

Odaily News - New York state officials have warned that AI-generated content and fake crypto projects are making investment scams more deceptive. Investment fraud losses exceeded $8 billion in 2025, up 38% from 2024, with 144,041 consumers reporting losses and a median loss of $10,560 per incident.AI can be used to clone voices, fabricate videos, impersonate financial professionals, and create social media advertisements. New York Attorney General Letitia James has warned that scammers lure investors through celebrity deepfake endorsements, fraudulent cryptocurrencies, pump-and-dump schemes, and fake trading platforms.Some fraudulent platforms display fabricated account balances, returns, and trading records, allowing victims to make small withdrawals to build trust before demanding additional deposits or fees. New York state officials advise consumers to verify the identities of promoters, companies, and investment projects, and to confirm where their funds are going.Data from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) shows that reported losses from cybercrime in 2025 totaled $20.877 billion, with losses from cryptocurrency-related complaints reaching $11.37 billion. Common scam signs include promises of high returns, unsolicited investment opportunities, high-pressure sales tactics, and projects lacking clear documentation. (Bitcoin.com News)

Zondacrypto embroiled in $94 million scandal, Polish PM Tusk pushes for re-vote on crypto asset bill

Odaily News: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that he will ask the Speaker of the Polish Sejm to organize a re-vote on the Crypto Asset Market Bill. The bill was vetoed for the third time by President Karol Nawrocki on June 11.Tusk noted that the Zondacrypto bankruptcy has become one of Poland's largest corruption cases in the crypto sector, with affected clients suffering losses of up to $94 million. He accused the ruling party of accepting cash and other benefits.The president's consecutive vetoes have prevented Poland from implementing the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), and domestic cryptocurrency exchanges are still unable to complete registration. Przemysław Kral, former head of Zondacrypto, had criticized that the bill would harm Poland's crypto industry. (Bitcoin.com News)

$580 Billion: Dallas Fed Researchers Warn Tokenized Deposits Could Weaken Banks' Maturity Transformation Capacity

Odaily News: Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Dallas Fed) have stated that tokenized deposits and round-the-clock instant blockchain transfers could weaken bank liquidity and limit their ability to issue long-term loans. The research was authored by Rosie Levy and Srini Ramaswamy.The study notes that of the $7 trillion in maturity risk borne by U.S. banks, approximately 80% is supported by the maturity characteristics of traditional deposits. If the weighted average maturity of deposits shortened by 10%, the banking system's maturity transformation capacity would decline by roughly $580 billion, potentially increasing liquidity risks and outflows pressure.Chris Turner, co-founder of Kula, stated that the speed of token transfers does not equate to the legal settlement of underlying financial claims. Tokens can be moved across blockchain networks in seconds, but payments, ownership, and legal claims still rely on banks, custodians, clearing systems, and regulatory registries to complete settlement. (Bitcoin.com News)

New Zealand's ACT Party proposes exempting crypto assets held for more than one year from capital gains tax

As reported by Bitcoin.com, New Zealand's fourth-largest party, the ACT Party (Consumers and Taxpayers Association), has formally proposed a digital asset tax reform plan. The proposal seeks to exempt compliant crypto assets held by individual retail investors for over a year from capital gains tax and waive tax reporting obligations for small-value crypto payments. Additionally, the plan introduces clear regulatory frameworks for stablecoins and tokenized securities, alongside a regulatory sandbox mechanism tailored for startups. ACT Party Deputy Leader Nicole McKee stated that this initiative aims to establish New Zealand as a trusted hub for digital finance, driving local high-value employment and economic growth.

Polymarket Withdraws NFL Player Participation Contracts, Certifies Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Price Contracts on the Same Day

Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket US withdrew two NFL player participation contract filings on August 26. The platform had completed certification with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) the previous day and planned to launch the related products no earlier than August 27.On the same day, Polymarket US certified Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana price contracts. All three contract types were submitted in paired form and classified as swaps under the binary options subcategory. Both the NFL contracts and the cryptocurrency contracts fall under the relevant classification.Polymarket US separately filed a confidential treatment request for the NFL compliance analysis documents, seeking permanent non-disclosure on the grounds that public release would reveal trade secrets and give competitors an unfair advantage. As of the time of record, another NFL American football starting eligibility contract remained in certified status. (Bitcoin.com News)

Tennessee Regulator Sends Cease-and-Desist Letters to Kalshi and Two Other Platforms, Demanding a Halt to Sports Prediction Markets

Odaily News: The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council issued cease-and-desist letters on January 9 to prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, demanding they stop offering sports-related prediction market products to Tennessee residents, void unsettled contracts, and return customer funds. The Council considers these products to constitute sports betting, requiring platforms to comply with state licensing, taxation, age restrictions, and consumer protection requirements.Kalshi stated that its event contracts are financial instruments regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and are not subject to state sports betting regulations. Users buy and sell contracts, with contract prices reflecting the market's implied probability; when an event occurs, winning contracts settle at $1, while others settle at zero.Traditional betting companies typically accept user wagers and manage risk by setting odds, whereas Kalshi facilitates trading between users, with the platform acting as a matchmaker and prices formed by buyers and sellers. This dispute centers on whether sports prediction markets should be subject to a unified federal regulatory framework or individual state betting licensing regimes. (Bitcoin.com News)

Coldcard incident boosts BitBox credit card sales by ~10x, while Trezor and OneKey see rising demand

Odaily News - Hardware wallet maker BitBox reports that credit card sales in August grew roughly 10x compared to the baseline of previous weeks, with the increase primarily driven by North America. Trezor and OneKey also confirmed rising sales during the same period, though neither disclosed specific figures.Trezor, BitBox, and OneKey have all re-reviewed their seed phrase generation, random number generator, entropy, and firmware verification processes. Trezor plans to conduct penetration testing on core firmware functions and publish related security audit reports. OneKey will strengthen reviews of security-critical code paths and transaction signing processes.Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet stated that AI-assisted attacks mean patch releases, vulnerability disclosures, and user education need to accelerate. Blockstream Jade has released a firmware update containing multiple fixes and recommends users simultaneously update their apps, operating systems, devices, routers, and home appliances. (Bitcoin.com News)

Chainalysis "Operation Lighthouse" Investigates Over 29,000 Crypto Addresses Linked to CSAM Networks Across 125 Countries

According to Bitcoin.com, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis announced the results of Operation Lighthouse on August 25. This transnational operation targeted criminal networks associated with child sexual abuse material (CSAM), investigating 29,120 cryptocurrency addresses and digital identifiers across more than 100 clearnet and darknet platforms, forums, and distribution networks. The effort generated 14,300 investigation leads and uncovered over 7,700 suspicious accounts and linked suspects spanning 125 countries. Coordinated in New York by the National Cyber Forensics & Training Alliance (NCFTA), the initiative involved at least nine law enforcement agencies, along with more than 13 private organizations and non-profits, including Europol, the Australian Federal Police, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, and the UK’s National Crime Agency. Chainalysis stated that the discovered leads could subsequently result in account restrictions, arrests, and prosecutions. Law enforcement outcomes are expected to continue through 2027, and the company plans to extend this collaborative model to other types of crypto-related crime.

Main defendant in Czech $44 million Bitcoin donation case signals first willingness to cooperate; prosecutors seek up to 20 years in prison

Odaily News: Tomáš Jiříkovský, the main defendant in a Czech cryptocurrency money laundering case and a programmer linked to dark web operations, has signaled for the first time that he may cooperate with the investigation. The Brno City Court ruled to keep him in detention, citing flight risk and the possibility that he still controls undisclosed crypto assets.Prosecutors stated that Jiříkovský has shifted his stance regarding the operation of dark web markets and the laundering of criminal proceeds, but has not yet provided detailed testimony. Prosecutors are seeking a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison along with asset forfeiture. The case involves his donation of Bitcoin valued at $44 million to the Czech Ministry of Justice. (Bitcoin.com News)

Bitwise CIO: Five Structural Changes Bolster the Bull Case for the Crypto Market

According to Bitcoin.com, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that the bullish thesis for 2026 is more fundamentally grounded than the crypto market cycles of 2014, 2018, and 2022, primarily driven by five structural changes: the advancement of regulatory frameworks, the scaling of stablecoin adoption, the tokenization of real-world assets, protocol tokens generating genuine revenue supported by buyback and burn mechanisms, and the demand for currency debasement triggered by expanding sovereign debt. Hougan noted that the total stablecoin market capitalization surpassed $300 billion by mid-2026, with steady usage across trading, payments, cross-border remittances, and settlements; meanwhile, asset tokenization is progressively transitioning from experimental phases into regulated financial infrastructure. He also highlighted Hyperliquid as a prime example, noting that the protocol generated over $800 million in revenue last year, allocating roughly 99% of it toward buybacks and burns of the HYPE token. On Bitcoin, Hougan suggested that rising government borrowing levels could further cement its role as a hedge against currency debasement, though he emphasized that the associated valuation models represent scenario analyses rather than definitive price forecasts.

Opinion: CLARITY Act Unlikely to Rescue U.S. Treasury Market; Stablecoins Cover Only ~3% of Annual Debt Demand

Odaily News - Investment manager Lawrence Lepard, author of The Big Print, stated that even if the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) passes the Senate with 60 votes, stablecoin demand will not be sufficient to improve the current state of the U.S. Treasury market.He noted that the current stablecoin market cap stands at approximately $255 billion, primarily backed by U.S. Treasuries purchased by Circle and Tether, down from $263 billion in January. The U.S. Treasury needs to roll over more than $8 trillion in debt annually, with stablecoins covering only about 3% of that amount.In 2025, the share of U.S. debt held by foreign entities has dropped to 32%, down from 57% after the financial crisis. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad stated that dollar-backed stablecoins could convert overseas demand for digital dollars into demand for U.S. Treasuries. (Bitcoin.com News)

UK court shuts down Key Coin Assets, nine investors lose over £300,000

According to Bitcoin.com News, a UK court has shut down the cryptocurrency company Key Coin Assets Ltd. after nine investors who filed complaints with Action Fraud paid a combined total of over £300,000. Investigators stated that no evidence of real transactions was found, and determined that the company's operations exhibited characteristics of a Ponzi scheme.

Bank of Russia Adds Financial Knowledge Test, Eases Qualified Investor Requirements

Odaily News – The Bank of Russia has announced that individuals who pass a financial and banking knowledge test and obtain a Qualifin Certificate issued by the National Finance Association (NFA) or an Investor Certificate from the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) may be recognized as qualified investors by brokers or management companies.The new rules will take effect on August 31. Previously, the Bank of Russia only recognized international certifications in fields such as financial analysis, investment advisory, asset management, and risk management.Under recently adopted cryptocurrency regulations, non-qualified investors are subject to an annual cap of 300,000 rubles (approximately $3,800) for purchasing cryptocurrencies through a single licensed intermediary, while qualified investors have a limit ten times higher. Bank of Russia Deputy Governor Mikhail Mamuta stated that the test focuses on enhancing investors' financial knowledge, enabling them to understand and manage associated risks before trading complex instruments. (Bitcoin.com News)

U.S. Large Banking Groups Propose Extending Customer Identification Requirements to Stablecoin Secondary Markets

Odaily News: The Bank Policy Institute (BPI), an organization representing major banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citi, has proposed that the U.S. Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) expand Customer Identification Program (CIP) requirements to stablecoin secondary markets, covering exchanges and other platforms that establish direct account relationships with retail customers.BPI stated that relevant exchanges and platforms handle a substantial volume of purchasing and selling activity within the payment stablecoin ecosystem, and that the majority of stablecoin-related illicit activity occurs in this space. Should the proposal be incorporated into the rules, affected platforms would be required to collect customer information under the Bank Secrecy Act, and decentralized exchanges could also fall within the regulatory scope.FinCEN's proposed rule notes that secondary market transactions of stablecoins on the blockchain typically involve anonymous or pseudonymous identities, with no centralized node collecting identity information, and that issuers have limited ability to gather customer data from secondary markets. BPI has also joined other banking organizations in opposing the current version of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. (Bitcoin.com News)

Grayscale believes Bitcoin's current price may offer a favorable entry point for long-term investors, as three factors converge

Odaily News: Zach Pandl, Head of Research at digital asset management firm Grayscale, stated that Bitcoin's structural adoption trend continues, the current bear market has entered a deeper stage, and the macro outlook is generally favorable. These three factors may provide a basis for long-term investors to enter, though prices could still decline.Grayscale noted that Bitcoin's adoption growth is primarily driven by government deficits, the expanding application of blockchain technology in the financial services sector, and generational shifts in investor asset allocation. The current bear market has lasted 10 months, approaching the average and median duration of 11 to 12 months observed across the previous four cyclical bear markets.Macro risks mainly depend on real interest rates and Federal Reserve policy. The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in July, and future rate hikes could push Bitcoin lower. Bitcoin briefly rose to $79,461 on August 21 before pulling back to around $77,000. (Bitcoin.com News)

Laser Digital Japan obtains Japanese crypto asset trading license, ending nearly 4-year gap in new registrations

Odaily News - Nomura Holdings' digital asset company Laser Digital Japan announced this week that it has completed registration as a crypto asset trading service provider under Japan's Payment Services Act, with registration number 00032, and has joined the Japan Virtual and Crypto asset Trading Association, bringing an end to Japan's nearly 4-year period without new industry participants.The license covers six crypto assets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and Shiba Inu, all of which are listed on the industry association's "green list." Laser Digital Japan will initially provide liquidity to licensed crypto asset companies in Japan, while the launch date for trading services targeting professional investors has not yet been announced.Japanese regulators require the segregation of customer assets from company assets, with at least 95% of customer crypto assets stored in offline cold wallets, subject to verification through annual audits. The license does not cover crypto asset derivatives, nor does it permit Laser Digital Japan to launch exchange-traded funds; major adjustments to Japan's crypto asset regulatory framework are expected to be implemented in fiscal year 2027. (Bitcoin.com News)

HYPE Hits All-Time High of $82, Multicoin Transfers Nearly $20 Million to Coinbase Prime

Odaily News – HYPE reached an intraday high of $82 yesterday, rising 38% over the past week, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $2 billion and a market cap of approximately $17.17 billion. Hyperliquid's 30-day trading volume surpassed $176 billion, with open interest exceeding $8 billion.On August 19, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is pushing to bring Hyperliquid into the U.S. market in a compliant and lawful manner. On August 20, a wallet associated with venture capital firm Multicoin Capital transferred 308,884 HYPE tokens, valued at approximately $19.8 million, to institutional custody and trading platform Coinbase Prime within seven hours.During the same period, the wallet also transferred 172,710 and 62,700 HYPE tokens, valued at approximately $10.15 million and $4.37 million, respectively. Since February 2026, Multicoin Capital has transferred over $100 million worth of HYPE to Coinbase Prime. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid has been using approximately 99% of its perpetual and spot market fee revenue to continuously buy back HYPE through the Assistance Fund. (Bitcoin.com News)