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Odaily News Over the past year, the ETH/BTC trading pair has cumulatively fallen by more than 35%, with the market structure continuously weakening, raising concerns about further downside risks. Analysts point out that the ETH/BTC trend remains suppressed by a multi-year descending trendline, a structure that has repeatedly capped rebounds since 2022 and was accompanied by a nearly 70% correction during the 2024–2025 market cycle.Currently, after attempting a rebound in August 2025 to the confluence zone of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-month moving average, ETH/BTC was rejected and has subsequently broken below support at the 20-month moving average, indicating sustained selling pressure dominance. Technical models suggest that if this weakness persists, the next key support level could be around 0.0176 BTC, representing approximately 40% downside from current levels and approaching the cycle low area of 2020.On-chain data shows that ETH reserves on Binance have continued to rise, reaching approximately 3.62 million coins as of May, accounting for about 24.6% of the total exchange holdings across the network, signaling increased potential selling pressure. In contrast, Bitcoin exchange reserves have continued to decline, reflecting tightening BTC liquidity and stronger holding sentiment.The analysis suggests that this divergence in data reinforces ETH's relatively weaker market structure. Meanwhile, at the narrative level, the "ultra-sound money" narrative surrounding Ethereum has cooled off, while Bitcoin continues to benefit from institutional allocation and corporate treasury demand, placing ETH under pressure from both capital flows and market narrative. (Cointelegraph)
: Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that although Bitcoin rebounded after falling from around $125,000 to $60,000, the current trend remains a "repair after decline" and has not yet been confirmed as entering a new bull market cycle.He pointed out that from an on-chain data perspective, multiple key indicators have not yet entered the historical bear market bottom range. This includes the "Supply in Loss" and 90-day UTXO-related metrics, which have not yet shown a sufficient cyclical bottom structure. Meanwhile, the "LTH Realized Supply" has also not displayed the typical accumulation pattern seen at the end of a bear market, indicating that the market has not yet entered a deep reallocation phase.Additionally, spot selling pressure indicators have not shown obvious "capitulation selling", suggesting that a typical comprehensive market cleansing has not occurred during this decline. Axel Adler Jr believes that before improvements are seen simultaneously in on-chain structure, spot demand, and supply pressure, the current upward move is more likely a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, he pointed out that the global risk environment remains tight. The conflict between the US and Iran has pushed Brent crude oil close to $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressure. Consumer confidence and financial health indices are weakening, indicating pressure on the demand side. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, with real interest rates and inflation expectations rising concurrently, further suppressing risk asset valuations.He also mentioned that the leadership of the US Federal Reserve is about to enter a potential transition phase, but the interest rate market is no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts and has even begun to price in the probability of rate hikes. Market expectations have clearly shifted towards "higher for longer". In an environment of high oil prices, high interest rates, and uncertain monetary policy, overall financial conditions remain tight.Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market needs to wait for clearer on-chain bottom structures and signs of demand-side recovery. Until then, he maintains a cautious stance on the market outlook.
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), a whale address swapped 40 BTC (approximately $3.23 million) for 1,384.6 ETH via THORChain, then transferred the funds into Tornado Cash for coin mixing.
Bitcoin held above the $80,000 mark over the weekend, with no further significant decline in the market for now. However, market analysts believe that the short-term correction is not yet over. Cryptic Trades stated that current low-timeframe charts indicate that after encountering resistance near a high-timeframe resistance level, BTC is more likely to retest the "Bull Market Support Band" in the short term, which consists of two key moving averages located below $80,000. As long as BTC can hold this support band and the high-timeframe support zone around $75,000, the subsequent trend still leans towards an upward move.Additionally, some market analysis points out that Bitcoin's previous breakout above the bull market support band was "not clear-cut," and the market needs to consolidate firmly above the lower $80,000 region for one to two weeks to confirm a strengthening trend. (Cointelegraph)
according to analyst Murphy's post on X, data shows that retail addresses holding less than 1 BTC have accumulated a net total of 23,074 BTC over the past 30 days. This accumulation occurred in three distinct phases, notably when Bitcoin was around $66,000, $70,000, and $80,000.At the same time, whale addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC began large-scale accumulation starting from the $66,000 level, with their 30-day balance peaking at an increase of 140,699 BTC. This marks the largest net growth in nearly two years, exhibiting clear signs of position building.Analysis suggests that the investors still actively participating in Bitcoin trading within the current market have mostly experienced multiple market cycles. The significant inflow of whale capital also indicates that the market is moving in the direction of least resistance.
according to Onchain Lens monitoring, whale Loracle.hl has closed its TON, BTC, and CL positions, realizing a profit of approximately $3.9 million. Meanwhile, the address also closed out about 96% of its ZEC long position.Additionally, Loracle.hl has increased its short position on HYPE to 1,239,834 HYPE, with a position value of approximately $53.23 million and a leverage of 5x. The current cumulative profit is approaching $37 million.
According to on-chain analyst Yujin’s monitoring, the whale who lost $230 million due to long-position liquidations on Hyperliquid in February has transferred 108,000 ETH (approximately $250 million) to Binance in the past half hour. Within the last three days, this address has cumulatively transferred 352,000 ETH (approximately $823 million) to Binance. The whale’s on-chain address currently still holds 11,500 BTC (approximately $930 million) and 225,000 ETH (approximately $520 million).
Crypto trader Eugene posted on his personal channel that, as Bitcoin hovers near $80,000, multiple market charts are already showing “bottoming-out” signals. He expects the real rally to begin within the next week or so, potentially propelling numerous altcoins to break out of their current consolidation ranges. Judging by overall trading volume and open interest (OI) levels, most tokens currently require only modest marginal buying pressure to drive price increases—indicating the market remains broadly “under-allocated.” He believes the key catalyst lies in whether BTC can convincingly break above the $80,000 level and trigger new upward trends across major tokens such as ETH, SOL, and HYPE. Eugene also expressed hope that the market won’t encounter strong resistance leading to a pullback at this level.
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $145.6 million, with Fidelity’s $FBTC seeing an outflow of $97.6 million, BlackRock’s $IBIT an outflow of $27.22 million, and Ark’s $ARKB an outflow of $26.56 million; only Morgan Stanley’s $MSBT registered a net inflow of $5.74 million.
According to The Block, Julio Moreno, Research Director at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, released a report on May 8 stating that Bitcoin has surged over 20% since early April, reaching a three-month high. However, the firm characterizes this rally as a “bear market bounce” and warns that profit-taking pressure may intensify further. On the data front, Bitcoin holders’ daily realized profit reached 14,600 BTC on May 4—the highest level since December 10, 2025. Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has remained consistently above 1.00 since mid-April, indicating the market has entered a sustained profit-taking phase. On a 30-day rolling basis, holders’ net realized profit turned positive at +20,000 BTC—the first time since December 22, 2025—after net losses plunged as deep as -398,000 BTC between February and March. Nonetheless, Moreno notes that the current net profit level of +20,000 BTC remains far below the historical 130,000–200,000 BTC threshold typically required to confirm a bull market transition, reinforcing the view that this is a “bear market bounce” rather than a structural trend reversal. Additionally, the current unrealized profit ratio stands at approximately 18%; historical experience shows that when this indicator rises to elevated levels, holders tend to sell to lock in gains, increasing correction risk.
on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant stated that with the recent price increase, profit-taking activity in the Bitcoin market could increase further.Data shows that Bitcoin has risen over 20% since the beginning of April, but the firm still defines this market movement as a "bear market rally." Currently, the short-term holder profitability indicator has remained above 1, suggesting that the market has been in a phase of continuous profit-taking since mid-April.The analysis suggests that although selling pressure is rising, a price correction may still take time to materialize.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, the US Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net outflow of 2,022 BTC, valued at $161.53 million, with a 7-day net inflow of 18,496 BTC, worth $1.48 billion; the Ethereum ETF recorded a single-day net outflow of 34,349 ETH, valued at $78.35 million, with a 7-day net inflow of 73,153 ETH, worth $166.86 million; and the Solana ETF had a single-day net inflow of 76,912 SOL, valued at $6.85 million, with a 7-day net inflow of 368,912 SOL, worth $32.83 million.
Bitcoin has fallen below the $80,000 mark, ending a five-day streak of net inflows into spot ETFs, with the market's rebound momentum from the February low showing signs of cooling.The US added 115,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April, surpassing the expected 62,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Although the data was relatively strong, it did not significantly alleviate market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty. Instead, it reinforced the expectation that "energy-driven inflation limits the scope for rate cuts."In terms of capital flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $277 million on Thursday, ending a cumulative inflow streak of $1.69 billion. Ethereum ETFs also recorded net outflows of $104 million on the same day, indicating a short-term cooling in institutional risk appetite.On the geopolitical front, tensions between Iran and the US have reignited, prompting the market to reprice the risk associated with the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices have rebounded, partially offsetting the previous support that risk assets had gained from falling oil prices.The derivatives market, meanwhile, reflects a more prolonged hawkish outlook. Interest rate futures pricing suggests over a 50% probability of rate hikes persisting beyond 2027, pushing the potential easing cycle back to 2028.On-chain data shows that the recent Bitcoin rally was primarily driven by institutional spot buying and short covering, with retail participation remaining low. Funding rates have stayed moderate, indicating a relatively weak market momentum structure. Analysts suggest that if retail capital does not return, BTC may still face the risk of retesting the $75,000–$78,000 support range. (The Block)
Bitget PoolX will list the BILL project, with a total airdrop of 5,000,000 BILL tokens. This campaign features two BTC staking pools, open for deposits from May 9 at 19:00 to May 16 at 19:00 (UTC+8). Specifically, the BTC Static Staking Pool allocates 2,250,000 BILL tokens, with a per-user staking cap of 30 BTC; the BTC Dynamic Staking Pool allocates 2,750,000 BILL tokens, with a tiered staking cap determined by users’ trading volume over the past 15 days, and a per-user staking cap of 50 BTC. Additionally, users whose net BTC deposits are positive during the campaign period will receive a 3% BTC interest-boosting coupon upon campaign completion. First-time PoolX participants who meet the net deposit requirement will receive a 10% BTC interest-boosting coupon. The net deposit window runs from May 8 at 19:00 to May 15 at 19:00 (UTC+8). For more details, please refer to the official Bitget platform.
according to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale opened a long position of 443.42 BTC on Hyperliquid with 20x leverage, with a position value of $35.35 million. The whale previously suffered a loss of $150,000 trading ETH.
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $268.46 million yesterday, ending the previous day’s net inflow trend. Fidelity’s FBTC saw the largest outflow at $128.99 million; BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a net outflow of $98.02 million; Grayscale’s GBTC saw a net outflow of $26.78 million; Ark Invest’s ARKB recorded a net outflow of $12.62 million; Invesco’s BTCO had a net outflow of $9.97 million; and VanEck’s HODL experienced a net outflow of $5.10 million. Only Morgan Stanley’s MSBT (+$7.35 million) and Grayscale Mini Bitcoin ETF (+$5.67 million) posted net inflows. Bitwise, Franklin, Valkyrie, and WisdomTree all reported zero net flows for the day.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), led by Michael Saylor, has been accelerating its Bitcoin acquisitions this year. JPMorgan analysts stated that if the current pace continues, the company's total Bitcoin purchases for the year could reach approximately $30 billion. So far this year, Strategy has added 145,834 Bitcoin to its holdings, valued at around $11 billion. Analysis indicates that a significant portion of the company's purchases occurred when Bitcoin was below its average cost of roughly $75,000, reflecting a more "opportunistic" allocation strategy.At the current rate, Strategy's total Bitcoin purchases in 2026 could significantly exceed the approximately $22 billion levels seen in 2024 and 2025. Analysts noted that the company has re-accelerated its buying since April, suggesting its strategy is becoming more dependent on market conditions and financing availability. Meanwhile, Strategy's stock continues to trade at a premium of approximately 26% to its net asset value (NAV), providing favorable conditions for the company to continue purchasing Bitcoin through equity and debt financing. The company currently holds approximately 818,334 BTC, with a total value exceeding $65 billion. (The Block)
according to Lookonchain monitoring, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of 261 BTC today, Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of 663 ETH, and Solana ETFs saw a net inflow of 240,595 SOL.
investment bank TD Cowen on Thursday raised its price target for Strategy (MSTR) to $395 from $385, believing the market underestimates the capital efficiency of the company’s bitcoin accumulation strategy following its increased issuance of STRC perpetual preferred stock. Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete indicated that the new target still implies over 110% upside from Strategy’s Wednesday closing price of $186.82.The analysis notes that Strategy is gradually reducing common equity financing and increasingly relying on STRC perpetual preferred stock, which yields 11.5%, to fund bitcoin purchases. STRC is also a core component of Michael Saylor’s “42/42 plan,” which aims to raise $42 billion each through equity and fixed-income instruments over three years.TD Cowen believes the market underestimates the effect of the STRC structure on boosting “BTC Yield,” a metric measuring the company’s growth in bitcoin holdings per fully diluted share. The report raised its BTC Yield forecast for Strategy’s fiscal 2026 to 18.2% from 16.7%, and for 2027 to 9.6% from 5.4%. Additionally, analysts argue that concerns about Strategy being a “perpetual dilution machine” are exaggerated. The company’s annual preferred stock dividend payments, currently around $1.5 billion, represent only about 2.2% of the value of its 818,334 BTC reserve.In TD Cowen’s base case scenario, bitcoin is expected to reach $140,000 by the end of 2026. In a bull case, bitcoin could rise to $175,000, with Strategy potentially purchasing over $5 billion in bitcoin per quarter. (The Block)
According to Odaily, crypto market analyst and founder of Into The Cryptoverse, Ben Cowen, stated that the crypto market is experiencing an "extinction event" for millions of altcoins, a process necessary for Bitcoin to enter a sustainable bull market cycle. He believes that the "shitcoin purge" has actually been underway since 2021, but a larger-scale clearance is still needed to restore a healthy market structure. Capital is continuously flowing from high-risk tokens to Bitcoin, with the rising BTC dominance rate serving as a clear signal.Data shows that GeckoTerminal tracks over 25 million deployed tokens, with more than 11.6 million projects failing in 2025 alone, primarily due to the burst of the Meme coin bubble. CoinShares researcher Luke Nolan stated that the claim "95% of tokens are worthless" is reasonable.Although Bitcoin has returned above $81,000, Ben Cowen remains cautious, believing that BTC is still in a bear market phase. He warns that if it fails to hold the key resistance level around $88,880, the price could correct to the $58,000-$62,000 range. Against the backdrop of delayed Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks, the crypto market continues to face short-term pressure. "2026 is more likely to be a reset year rather than a year for reaching new highs." (CoinDesk)