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Odaily News: Recent Bitcoin volatility has triggered a wave of leveraged long position liquidations. On August 22, hourly liquidations reached $529 million, with long positions accounting for $478 million; on August 23, an additional $84 million in crypto long positions were liquidated within one hour.Prediction market Kalshi launched the first spot Bitcoin perpetual futures contract approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on June 3, with liquidations reaching $5.5 billion in the first two weeks. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the product offers U.S. institutions regulated onshore perpetual contract trading.Benjamin Schiffrin, Director of Securities Policy at Better Markets, pointed out that perpetual futures are high-risk crypto products for retail investors, and the CFTC did not impose additional investor protections when approving them. Analysis account Qmo noted that there are significant Bitcoin long liquidation pools in the $62,000 to $67,000 range; trader Money Bunny disclosed that short liquidations reached $2.7 billion to $3.5 billion within 24 hours. (Forbes Digital Assets)
According to BeInCrypto, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that Bitcoin is currently on day 1,363 of this cycle, while the past two cycles bottomed out on day 1,432 and day 1,436 respectively. Based on this, the bottom of this cycle is estimated to appear in October 2026, approximately 69-73 days from now. Cowen also pointed out that August and September have historically been seasonally weak periods for Bitcoin, with an average decline of about 10% in August during midterm election years. However, this prediction faces institutional-level skepticism. Fidelity pointed out that within months after Bitcoin hit an all-time high, one-year volatility touched a new low, a signal that never appeared in previous cycles; Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that continuous inflows into spot ETFs and corporate balance sheet allocation demands have weakened traditional halving cycle patterns; Grayscale's 2026 outlook report also holds a similar view. Cowen, however, insists that although tops are becoming flatter, the bottom ranges of the four cycles have hardly shifted.