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Federal Reserve’s New Chair Warsh Set for Debut, Market Expects Benchmark Rate to Hold at 3.50%-3.75%

The global financial market's attention will be focused on Washington this week as newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh chairs his first post-confirmation FOMC press conference. This marks not only his transition from a policy commentator to the "world's most powerful banker," but also a critical window for the outside world to observe whether a major shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy is underway.The market widely expects the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% during this week's meeting. Compared to the specific rate decision, the market is more focused on how Warsh will reshape the Fed's "art of communication." For a long time, former Chair Powell tended to guide market expectations through transparent "forward guidance," but Warsh has previously expressed reservations about this approach publicly, arguing that the Fed should not provide too many interest rate hints to the market.This meeting will also release the latest quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the "dot plot." For Warsh, who has a strong aversion to the dot plot, this is undoubtedly an awkward beginning, as he must find a balance between respecting the Fed's decision-making mechanism and articulating his own policy preferences. (Reuters)

Analyst: Clarity Act faces legislative hurdles

the U.S. Senate Banking Committee has advanced the crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, by a vote of 15 to 9. The bill aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the crypto industry at the federal level for the first time, garnering support from Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks.While the industry generally views the committee's passage as positive progress, analysts believe the bill still faces significant obstacles before becoming law. TD Cowen has raised the bill's passage probability from approximately one-third to 40%, noting that some Democratic lawmakers are showing willingness to find a path to support it, though substantive disagreements have not been fully resolved.Previously, the bill had long been affected by issues such as stablecoin yield arrangements, conflicts of interest, and ethical provisions. Additionally, to overcome a filibuster in the Senate, the bill will need to secure more Democratic support than it currently has. Benchmark analysts also pointed out that the current number of supporting votes is insufficient to ensure its eventual passage. (The Block)

Benchmark Maintains Coinbase 'Buy' Rating, Raises Target Price to $270

despite Coinbase's weak first-quarter performance, Benchmark has maintained its 'Buy' rating on the stock and raised its price target from $260 to $270.Coinbase reported a net loss of $394 million in the first quarter, with revenue of $755.8 million falling short of market expectations; Adjusted EBITDA was $303.3 million, a significant decline from $929.9 million in the same period last year. Following the earnings release, its share price briefly fell by about 6%.Benchmark believes Coinbase is transitioning from a crypto exchange reliant on market cycles into a core infrastructure platform for the 'on-chain economy.' Its business layout now spans multiple areas, including stablecoins, crypto derivatives, tokenization, DeFi, payments, prediction markets, and AI-native commerce.Previously, Rosenblatt Securities and Bernstein also maintained positive ratings on Coinbase, indicating that some institutions remain optimistic about its long-term platform transformation.