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: Analyst Murphy posted on X platform, stating that based on the relationship between the "1-3 month short-term holder cost basis (1-3m_RP)" and price action, Bitcoin may currently be in the formation stage of a bottom structure.Murphy pointed out that previous bear market bottoms were accompanied by BTC breaking through and trading around the 1-3m_RP cost basis line, but the patterns differed across cycles: In 2015-2016, BTC oscillated around this cost basis line for an extended period; in 2019-2020, it directly triggered a mini bull run after the breakout; in 2022-2023, it experienced a second retest to confirm support before rebounding again.Murphy stated that since BTC broke through this cost basis line on April 15, it has continued to trade above it. Regarding future trends, he believes the focus is not on predicting specific scenarios, but rather on preparing position and trading response plans for different market situations in advance.
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen from approximately $63,000 to over $80,000 in the past three months, with multiple key indicators now converging on an $85,000 target. On-chain, BTC has broken above two critical support levels—the “Realized Market Value” ($78,200) and the “Short-Term Holder Cost Basis” ($79,100). Research firm Glassnode notes that the next resistance level lies near the Active Realized Price of $85,200. In the futures market, funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral, signaling a clear retreat of prior large-scale short pressure and rising risk of a short squeeze. In the options market, market makers hold roughly $2 billion in “short gamma” exposure near $82,000; rising prices will compel them to continuously hedge by buying BTC, generating positive feedback. However, analysts caution that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with U.S. tech equities—should equity markets shift toward risk-aversion, upward momentum could be dampened.