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Odaily report: Crypto analyst Darkfost posted that market sentiment deteriorated noticeably within a single day, with the Fear and Greed Index falling from 51 (neutral) to 30 (fear), the lowest level since mid-August. Over the same period, Bitcoin dropped about 4% to 5% within 24 hours, briefly touching a six-week low near $76,500; Ethereum fell below $2,200, and total liquidations across the market exceeded $1.6 billion in the past 24 hours.Darkfost noted that historically, periods of market pessimism often correspond to accumulation opportunities, but the current index reading of 30 only represents fear and has not yet entered the extreme fear zone below 25, suggesting market sentiment may remain under pressure. In addition, this round of decline was partly triggered by Binance's $6.3 billion hack incident and did not stem entirely from a clear deterioration in market fundamentals.
According to BeInCrypto, Chainalysis data shows that over the year ending June 2026, the South African crypto economy expanded by 52% to $39.3 billion, with increases across all tracked activity categories. Commercial payments, including those from South African merchants and P2P traders, reached $8.34 billion, outpacing institutional activity ($1.29 billion in inflows); stablecoin inflows through Sub-Saharan African P2P channels totaled $14.6 billion, on par with Bitcoin. A draft regulatory framework for crypto asset management released by the South African Treasury and Reserve Bank (SARB) on August 3 would stipulate that individuals may only transfer crypto assets abroad through authorized local service providers within existing foreign exchange limits, while businesses are prohibited from cross-border transfers of crypto assets. As of March 31, the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) had issued licenses to 310 crypto asset service providers, though these entities must still secure separate authorization from the SARB. On October 21, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana stated that after receiving thousands of public submissions, the Treasury will aim to release a revised second draft, with no timeline currently announced.
Glassnode's latest report indicates Bitcoin's one-month realized volatility has dropped to approximately 25%, falling back to summer 2023 levels; since August, the realized losses triggered by each round of decline have continued to narrow, suggesting that selling pressure has eased somewhat. Glassnode believes that Bitcoin is currently in a range-bound state characterized by weak demand and limited selling pressure, with the market focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 28. If the daily close reclaims the $85,000 level, it could serve as an initial signal for a further rebound; if it breaks below the active investors' average cost of approximately $77,900, attention should be paid to short-term holder cost support near $75,800.Market data shows that Bitcoin has fallen back below the $84,000–$85,000 range, which has capped price gains four times this year. Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have cooled notably, with net inflows of only about $67 million over the past two weeks; major buy-order support on Binance's spot order book has also shifted down to the $78,000–$79,000 range, amounting to approximately $42 million.
Odaily reports: According to monitoring by Ai Yi, a PEPE whale transferred tokens again after a one-year hiatus, moving 1.45 trillion PEPE to another address. This whale accumulated a position of 4.03 trillion PEPE between May 2023 and August 2024, at an average cost of approximately $0.000001185 per token. Its remaining holdings currently show unrealized gains of approximately $5.106 million, with unrealized gains once reaching $32.77 million at the end of 2024.
Odaily reports: According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, address 0xbf8…808d5 deposited 3,084 ETH worth approximately $7.17 million into Binance 5 minutes ago, seemingly liquidating its position. This address accumulated its holdings in batches between November 2022 and February 2026, and had previously been depositing ETH into Lido for staking yield. Based on currently disclosed data, this operation is estimated to yield a profit of approximately $928,000. The address's last sell-off occurred between August and November 2025, when ETH was priced between $3,847 and $4,532.
Odaily Report: According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Ember, a hacker who stole approximately $40 million in assets from UXLINK last year opened a long position of 30,300 ETH on Hyperliquid at a price of $2,134, with a position value of $70.25 million and current unrealized profit of $5.62 million. The funding source address for the ETH long position has a direct fund intersection with a known UXLINK hacker address: one month ago, both addresses consolidated their remaining ETH Gas to the same wallet on the same day. In early August, after consolidating 11.54 million USDC from multiple channels, the hacker began trading ETH on Hyperliquid, opening positions 6 times in total, with 5 profitable trades and total profits of $5.71 million.
Odaily reports: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X that as BTC has held above $80,000 for several consecutive weeks, the behavior of retail investors and whales transferring BTC to Binance has diverged significantly. Data shows that the 30-day cumulative retail BTC inflows to Binance have risen from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, nearly doubling and hitting a 6-month high. In contrast, whale inflows over the same period have continued to decline, dropping from $5.9 billion at the end of August to the current $3.8 billion.Darkfost believes that some retail investors may be viewing this first rebound as an opportunity to reduce positions or exit, while whales have not yet shown a clear willingness to sell. What is worth watching going forward is whether whales will continue to maintain low exchange inflow levels if BTC prices continue to rise.
Odaily reports: Crypto analyst Ali has stated that $1.26 may currently be the lower boundary of the price channel XRP has formed since August. If this support level is broken, the price could first decline to $1.11, and further downside could reach $0.98, roughly 22% below $1.26.Ali believes that if whales continue selling, XRP could fall to $0.98. Data shows that over the past few weeks, the number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP has dropped from 351 to 339; meanwhile, the amount of XRP held on exchanges has risen from 11.003 billion to approximately 11.05 billion, an increase of about 50 million, and has remained at a high level over the past week, potentially indicating increased selling pressure.
Bitcoin News posted on X that after Bitcoin closed below its 50-day moving average, the price is around $80,600, marking the first time since August that it has fallen below this moving average and ending a streak of 66 consecutive days above it; the price is still about 10% above its 200-day moving average. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $137.9 million on Friday, marking two consecutive trading days of net outflows; the previous day, Thursday, saw net outflows of $635.6 million, the largest single-day outflow since June. The two trading days combined saw net outflows of approximately $773.5 million.
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett stated in his latest client report that current global market risk-aversion sentiment may persist until mid-November. Until uncertainties regarding AI financing risks, pressure in the French bond market, and the US midterm elections are alleviated, the bank remains tactically cautious toward risk assets. On the liquidity front, although investors are beginning to shift toward defensive positioning, tech stock holdings remain crowded. EPFR Global data shows that tech equity funds recorded the largest capital inflows since July over the past week, and BofA’s October fund manager survey also indicates that global investors’ allocation to tech stocks has reached its highest level since August 2020. Hartnett noted that if credit spreads related to AI super cloud vendors peak, it could serve as an important signal of improved risk appetite.
According to reports by Korean media outlet Digital Asset, the Second Division of the Seoul Administrative Court held its first hearing on Oct. 22 regarding the administrative lawsuit between Bithumb and Korea's Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU). The FIU found that Bithumb conducted 45,772 transfers with 18 unregistered crypto asset operators between August 28, 2022, and April 3, 2025, and accordingly issued penalties, which included a partial suspension restricting new customers from transferring crypto assets externally for six months. Bithumb stated during the hearing that transfers of 1 million KRW or above are subject to the "travel rule," and since unregistered operators have been removed from the list of eligible exchanges, there were zero non-compliant outbound transfers in that tier. Transfers under 1 million KRW were not covered by the travel rule at the time; thus, the platform had no legal basis to demand that customers provide recipient exchange details, nor did regulators specify clear blocking protocols. Bithumb also noted that after implementing the Chainalysis API, only about 2% of initially unverifiable addresses were later identified as FIU-designated unregistered operators. Enforcing blanket blocks would disrupt the remaining 98% of legitimate transactions, potentially exposing the platform to customer compensation claims. Bithumb further argued that the six-month penalty is excessively severe and practically amounts to banning the platform from acquiring new customers. The company also challenged the FIU's criteria for classifying overseas operators and the grounds for the...
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), address 0xa4c…F02D0 deposited 3,000 ETH (approximately $7.23 million) to Kraken 10 hours ago. The position building timeline, funding source, and deposit method of this address align with previously tracked early ETH holders, indicating it likely belongs to the same whale or entity. If verified, the entity has reportedly sold 6,000 ETH since August 2025, valued at approximately $15.85 million, with an average entry price of $2,642.42 per ETH, yielding a return of over 139 times and estimated total profits exceeding $15.74 million.
Odaily reports: According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Ai Yi, an address has been heavily long on XMR since August 9, with its position reaching a peak of 36,000 XMR. It closed out the position on October 20 for a profit of $3.441 million, with an opening price of $383.23 and a closing price of $513. Today XMR rose 12%, hitting a three-month high. Because the address closed its position two days early, it missed out on approximately $4.77 million in potential profits.
Odaily reports: According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi, an address withdrew 3,000 ETH from Gemini nine years ago, worth $56,400 at the time, with an entry cost as low as $18.82. The address held for years until August 2025, when it began transferring funds to exchanges in batches. Nine hours ago, it deposited the final 1,000 ETH at an average deposit price of $2,874.17. If sold, the profit would be $8.566 million, representing a 151.7x return.
On-chain investigator ZachXBT stated that FreedomXMR (FXMR), a centralized money laundering service that appeared on Hyperliquid Core (HL Core) in August 2026, had over 87% of its incoming funds directly linked to illegal activities. A review of historical inflows exceeding $10,000 revealed that over $20 million could be directly traced to ransomware, security exploits, malware, and social engineering incidents, involving multiple theft cases such as the DCENT Wallet, Fetch.ai, Axelar, and Gamdom.
Odaily reports: Crypto analyst Darkfost stated that since late August, small- and mid-cap crypto assets have seen the strongest market cap growth, with the gap between their monthly average and yearly average market cap continuing to widen, and the relevant ratio now reaching 41%. By comparison, Bitcoin's ratio stands at 7%, while large-cap crypto assets are at just 3.5%.Darkfost noted that this trend is relatively rare, as rallies are typically initiated by Bitcoin first, as was the case in the market performance after the 2023 bear market ended. However, small- and mid-cap assets are more sensitive to market changes, and the current trend could also reverse rapidly.
Odaily reports: Analyst MorenoDV stated that as of October 15, new whales held $78.61 billion in realized market cap, accounting for 33.06% of whales' total realized market cap; old whales held $159.15 billion. This share is higher than approximately 18% at the beginning of 2026, reflecting an increase in new whales' realized market cap weight within the whale cohort, but it does not represent their share of Bitcoin supply holdings. Since September, new whales' realized market cap has continued to rise, while old whales' realized market cap has generally remained stable. New whales' aggregate cost basis has dropped from approximately $110,000 near the previous cycle peak to approximately $68,000 by the end of August, before rebounding to approximately $77,000.
Glassnode posted on X that seller capitulation appeared once again during yesterday's BTC decline. Each previous wave of loss-driven selling occurred at local bottoms, in early August, mid-August, and mid-September respectively. Since the September high, profit-taking has slowed. If this pattern holds, yesterday's sell-off just above $80,000 would mark a local bottom.
According to CoinShares' market report, the US September CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding the 3.6% market expectation. Gasoline prices surged 9.1% during the month, accounting for roughly half of the overall increase. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. In the same period, US September retail sales increased 0.8% month-over-month, beating the ~0.3% forecast, while August data was revised up to 1.3%. However, retail sales excluding gasoline only grew by 0.2%, down from 1.0% in August. The report pointed out that inflation remains elevated and economic demand continues to show resilience, driving a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve policy that weighed on Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market. Data showed that market sentiment notably weakened following the CPI release, with global digital asset investment products recording $434 million in outflows so far this week. Regarding interest rate expectations, as of October 15, Polymarket data indicated a roughly 75% probability that the Fed would hold rates unchanged at its October meeting and about a 25% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Following the CPI release, futures markets shifted markedly toward a hawkish stance, with expectations of another rate hike within the year rising significantly.
Odaily News: On-chain analyst Murphy posted on X that during the recent BTC decline, the scale of BTC transfers to exchanges by short-term holders (STH) increased significantly, with an average of approximately 2,200 BTC transferred per hour within a 4-hour window, reaching the fourth-highest level since the market rally began in August this year. However, the transfer peak on October 15 was already lower than that of October 8, indicating that the potential selling pressure from short-term holders has somewhat weakened.In contrast, long-term holders (LTH) transferred only about 480 BTC per hour to exchanges during the same period, roughly one-fifth of that of short-term holders. Murphy noted that on October 8, long-term holders had a transfer peak of approximately 3,700 BTC per hour, which may have been partly related to asset transfers triggered by a hardware wallet security incident. However, considering that both long-term and short-term holders showed large-scale transfers on that day and BTC prices fell rapidly, actual selling pressure still existed in the market.Murphy believes that during the current decline, those transferring BTC to exchanges are primarily short-term holders, while long-term holders remain relatively stable overall, and the transfer intensity of short-term holders has weakened compared to before, reflecting that the BTC holder structure still possesses a certain degree of resilience.