News linked to both this project and an event.
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.
According to a Reuters report, the U.S. has approved the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to 10 Chinese companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance; however, no chips have been delivered yet, and related transactions have stalled. The report notes that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang joined the U.S. delegation during President Donald Trump’s visit to China in an effort to advance H200 chip sales in China. The U.S. Department of Commerce has also authorized certain distributors—including Lenovo and Foxconn—to directly procure and resell the chips. Yet, due to stringent U.S. restrictions on H200 exports—including security, end-use, revenue-sharing, and legal requirements—these conditions conflict with China’s supply-chain security policies, resulting in increasingly strict order approvals.
, May 14 - Currently, around 10 Chinese companies have been granted permission to purchase H200 chips. The buyers include Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com, while Lenovo and Foxconn have been approved as distributors. According to the U.S. license, each customer can purchase up to 75,000 H200 chips, but no shipments have yet been made. China has rejected the Trump administration's mandatory requirement for chips to transit through the U.S. and a 25% fee, and has instructed companies to halt purchases. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang temporarily accepted an invitation from Trump to join the White House delegation to China and participate in high-level meetings this week. (Reuters)