Goldman Sachs: Q2 EPS up 14%, earnings recovery spreading

According to Chaoxiang Research, Goldman Sachs' August 31, 2026 research report notes that Q2 S&P 500 median company EPS growth was 14%, with the earnings recovery spreading from AI infrastructure to broader sectors. Excluding AI infrastructure companies, earnings growth for the rest of the index also reached a new high for this cycle. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 12%, with the forward P/E ratio still at 20x. Valuations have not expanded; earnings growth has absorbed the equity gains. In August, the S&P 500 gained approximately 2.5%, entirely driven by the first two trading days of the month. The Federal Reserve held rates steady in July, and Warsh's hawkish debut at Jackson Hole pushed the probability of a September rate hike above 50%. Goldman Sachs forecasts the month-over-month increase in core CPI and PCE for August to be around 0.2%, making a rate hike unlikely. The Treasury has expanded its U.S. Treasury buyback program. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for six months, Goldman Sachs believes oil prices may have topped out, and European natural gas carries significant upside risk. Inflation has remained elevated for five consecutive years, but Goldman Sachs assesses that inflation expectations have not yet faced de-anchoring risks. September's ISM Manufacturing, Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, and PCE data will provide further directional guidance.