Bernstein: SpaceX ground-based compute raised to 12.8 gigawatts, price target $268

Bernstein estimates that the expansion of ground-based compute capacity will initially lift the revenue curve, while orbital data centers will determine the long-term valuation cap. The report maintains an Outperform rating, raises the price target from $248 to $268, and provides a 2027 adjusted EPS forecast of $1.44. Two key validation points are whether ground-based compute can be brought online on schedule and whether the price per watt can hold at $26.