HTX DeepThink: The macro logic of the crypto market is shifting from “inflation shock” to “geopolitical easing,” and Bitcoin has entered a dual-pricing phase driven by liquidity and risk appetite.

Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzes that the core macro variable driving crypto markets is rapidly shifting from “inflation shocks” to “deflationary expectation revisions driven by geopolitical easing.” With Israel and Lebanon reaching a short-term ceasefire agreement—and with the U.S. and Iran potentially resuming negotiations this weekend—markets are repricing the prospect of “de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.” A direct consequence of this shift is a loosening of the risk premium in energy markets and rising expectations of lower oil prices, thereby weakening the prior energy-driven logic behind inflationary upside pressure.