Goldman Sachs: Crypto Trading Has Fallen for Ten Consecutive Months, Turning Point May Be Approaching

According to Chaoxiang Research, Goldman Sachs' research report dated August 24, 2026, indicates that cryptocurrency trading volume fell 30% in July and 21% in August, declining for 10 consecutive months, a duration that exceeded the median of the previous five cycles. Trading volume in this cycle has dropped 75% from its peak, while cryptocurrency market capitalization rebounded 21% over the past week. Goldman Sachs suggests a turning point in trading volume may emerge if market cap remains at current levels. On the regulatory front, 35% of institutional investors cite regulatory uncertainty as the biggest hurdle, while 32% identify regulatory clarity as the primary catalyst. The SEC recently proposed an innovation exemption framework. In 2026, over 10 additional digital asset companies received bank charters from the OCC, and more than 15 crypto firms have already been incorporated into the federal banking system. Crypto companies reduced expenses by an average of approximately 5% in 2026, lifting operating margins by roughly 5.8 percentage points. Goldman Sachs remains cautiously optimistic for the second half of the year, with sector valuations currently positioned at the 30th percentile over a five-year period. Key recommendations include COIN (target price $196), HOOD ($124), IBKR ($114, featured on Goldman Sachs' Conviction List US), and FIGR ($43). The investment logic diverges across the three sectors: traditional brokerages are poised for a September reversal, prediction markets are driven by the election cycle, and crypto equities benefit from a triple catalyst of market cap recovery, cost reductions, and regulatory reform.