Morgan Stanley: Google TPU price raised to $27 billion per GW, cloud business to contribute half of profits by 2028

According to Chaoxiang Research, Morgan Stanley's August 24 report raised its revenue assumption per gigawatt (GW) of externally sold Google TPUs from $20 billion to $27 billion, increasing the gross margin assumption from 20% to 30%. Following these adjustments, TPU-related cloud revenue is projected to reach $84 billion and $108 billion in 2027 and 2028, respectively, marking increases of 35% and 37% over prior forecasts. Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating on Alphabet with a price target of $400, implying 16% upside from the current share price. The upward revision draws support from recent media reports stating that Google has pledged to supply approximately one million TPUs (equivalent to roughly 1.3 GW), generating about $35 billion in revenue. Furthermore, Google's custom silicon agreement with Marvell validates TPU pricing above previous estimates. The firm anticipates Google Cloud will contribute approximately 50% of Alphabet's consolidated EBIT by 2028. Three primary catalysts underpin the potential for valuation re-rating: the rollout of Gemini 4, inference cost reductions through optimized models, and the market deployment of GenAI offerings. The target price reflects a forward P/E multiple of approximately 22x based on 2028 consensus earnings, commanding a premium of roughly 22% relative to the peer median.