Analysis: Institutional Bitcoin Allocation Intent Remains Weak; CPI Data and Iran Situation Emerge as Key Variables

According to CoinDesk, although Bitcoin has risen nearly 7% since Sunday, its momentum has slowed after approaching the $72,000 range, and institutional capital overall remains directionless. The market currently faces two key uncertainties: the upcoming U.S. inflation data (CPI) release and progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations over the weekend. Options market data shows institutions are simultaneously betting on Bitcoin’s upside via call options—for instance, the $80,000 strike call option on Deribit has become a popular instrument—while demand for call options linked to BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) remains robust. At the same time, demand for downside protection remains strong, with no notable decline in put option positioning. On the macro front, March U.S. CPI is expected to rise year-on-year to above 3%, primarily driven by higher energy prices, potentially reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and thereby pressuring risk assets—including Bitcoin.