Nomura Securities Raises Target Prices for Nine Semiconductor Stocks, 2028 to Become New Peak of AI Cycle

According to TechFlow Research, Nomura Securities confirms the AI cycle peak is extended to 2028. Global data center construction is just beginning to scale up, with the number of projects increasing from 240 to 280, and gigawatt-level projects increasing from 40 to 50. The deployment peak will only begin to decline after 2027, pushing back the entire cycle. Server market growth rates were significantly upwardly revised, with global figures rising from 43% to 74%/65% (2026/2027), and AI servers from 58% to 78%/76% (2026/2027), indicating capacity demand far exceeds prior expectations. However, there are real bottlenecks on the capacity side: Wafer-level Substrate (WoS) has become a constraint. TSMC's capacity target is 2,000kpcs, while Nomura estimates actual output is only 1,800kpcs. Additionally, CPU demand is systematically underestimated; AMD, Arm, and NVIDIA are all expanding the CPU market scale, which will further extend the cycle.