Bank of America: Bull-Bear Indicator Rises to 9.6 Extreme Zone, Recommends Retreat or Rotation

According to Bank of America Securities' July 17 Flow Report, the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator rose from 9.4 to 9.6, further entering extreme bullish territory; historically, an indicator reading above 8.0 is a sell signal. Semiconductor ETFs have recorded year-to-date inflows of $46 billion, accounting for 31% of AUM, while tech funds saw record inflows of $48 billion over the past three weeks. However, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen approximately 20% from its June highs, indicating a significant divergence between flows and prices. BofA believes the current market has entered a "topping" zone and recommends reducing equity exposure, retreating or rotating into duration, defensive sectors, high dividends, and the US dollar. The report also notes that investors' extreme optimism is built on three fragile assumptions: an economic "no-landing," the Fed will not raise rates, and hyperscalers will not cut AI capital expenditure—all three of which could be broken. BofA provides specific observation anchors: retreat if the Mag 7 Index (MAGS) falls below 65, while a breakthrough above 70 is the signal to re-enter.