Vitalik Publishes Long Essay Reflecting on AI Evolution: Deep Human-Machine Integration May Be the Optimal Solution to Address AGI Risks

According to a series of tweets posted by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin on X on July 20, he engaged in deep reflection on AI capability growth and the future of humanity. Vitalik divides the evolution of machine capabilities into three stages: the Industrial Revolution (physical repetitive labor), the Computer Age (mental tasks definable by logic), and the LLM Era (mental and partial physical tasks defined based on massive samples). He points out that the current core question lies in: whether LLMs plus subsequent improvements can ultimately cover all unique human capabilities, or if a fourth or fifth technological wave is still needed. Regarding the definition of AGI, Vitalik proposes: AGI refers to AI that, if uploaded into a robotic body and humans suddenly disappear, can still independently continue civilization. He emphasizes that once AGI is realized, it will be an "irreversible turning point," and humanity's dominance over Earth will remain only due to historical inertia rather than capability advantage. Regarding the future path, Vitalik hopes for deep human-machine integration—erasing the human-machine binary boundary through technologies such as brain-computer interfaces and consciousness uploading, enabling humans to remain competitive before the technology ceiling arrives. He also calls for maintaining global political and economic diversification, avoiding monopolization of AI advantages by a single nation or corporation, and expresses support for AI development "slowdown" and "pause" proposals, leaning towards achieving decentralized slowdown via an open-source weights model rather than relying on coercive political means.