Goldman Sachs: Jackson Hole Preview; Warsh’s Friday Speech Focuses on Three Key Themes; High Probability of September Rate Hold

According to Chaoxiang Research, Goldman Sachs noted in its August 26 research report that the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Annual Economic Symposium will be held from August 27 to 29. Chairman Warsh's remarks on Friday at 10:00 a.m. New York time will be the market focus. Goldman Sachs expects Warsh to reiterate the 2% inflation target, outline the Fed's communication strategy, and discuss macroeconomic topics such as AI and productivity, but will not provide clear policy guidance for the September policy meeting. Goldman Sachs believes that improving inflation data for two consecutive months in June and July has bolstered the confidence of most FOMC members to maintain interest rates unchanged. With another round of CPI and PPI data due before the September 16 policy meeting, August core inflation is expected to increase approximately 0.2% month-on-month. A methodological adjustment on September 30 is expected to lower year-on-year core PCE by at least 0.2 percentage points. The peak impact of tariffs, oil prices, and AI demand on inflation has passed. Goldman Sachs expects the FOMC to keep interest rates unchanged in September and through the end of the year.