Goldman Sachs: Samsung shareholder returns fall short of expectations, FCF expansion supports valuation repair

According to Chaoxiang Research, Goldman Sachs's August 23 research report notes that Samsung Electronics announced a projected shareholder return pool for 2026 ranging from KRW 90 trillion to KRW 110 trillion (median approximately KRW 100 trillion), which is lower than the KRW 150 trillion market expectation previously reported by the media. Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating with a common stock price target of KRW 490,000, implying a 74% upside from the current share price. The company plans to distribute cash dividends of approximately KRW 30 trillion in the third quarter, with the remainder to be implemented following confirmation in the January 2027 financial results. Goldman Sachs calculates that Samsung's cumulative free cash flow (FCF) from 2024 to 2026 will be approximately KRW 270 trillion. Based on a 50% payout ratio, the 2026 return will be about KRW 106 trillion, falling at the upper end of the guidance range. Goldman Sachs projects that the return pools for 2027 and 2028 will increase to KRW 179 trillion and KRW 232 trillion, respectively, while raising its 2026, 2027, and 2028 EPS forecasts by 1%, 7%, and 11%. At its current share price, Samsung trades at an expected 2027 price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.7x and a 2028 P/B ratio of 1.2x, with corresponding ROE reaching 40% to 50%. Goldman Sachs considers the risk-reward ratio to be attractive.