Goldman Sachs: US Economy Not Overheated Overall, Localized Tightness in AI-Related Sectors

According to TrendFlow Research, Goldman Sachs' research report dated August 30, 2026 indicates that the U.S. macroeconomic environment shows no clear signs of overheating, the labor market is broadly balanced, wage growth is moderate, and aggregate capacity utilization across industries remains relatively low. Roughly 35% of industries are seeing nominal wage growth exceed 4%, slightly higher than the 25% mean from 1990 to 2019, but far below the 90% peak in 2022. Most manufacturing and service industries still possess capacity headroom, while the electrical equipment, machinery manufacturing, and professional services sectors are experiencing localized tightness driven by AI-related demand and are approaching peak capacity utilization. The composite bottleneck indicator remains at pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that capacity pressures have not propagated widely.