Morgan Stanley: AI Capex to Reach $1.4 Trillion in 2028

According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley's July 10 report projects that in 2028, the combined capital expenditure of the five major hyperscalers—Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and SpaceX—will reach $1.4 trillion, a more than threefold increase from 2025 levels; available compute capacity will expand from 30GW to 120GW. Meta is listed as the top pick, with 2027/2028 Capex raised to $225 billion/$250 billion. Morgan Stanley particularly emphasizes Meta's API business opportunities: Muse Spark 1.1 pricing is 30%-86% lower than peers, and every 100MW of compute capacity can generate approximately $8 billion in revenue and approximately $1.9 per share in EPS increment. The deciding factor in the compute race is shifting from "how much to build" to "how much to sell," as Meta simultaneously holds five monetization paths. Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating on Meta, Amazon, and Google.