Analyst: BTC’s recovery is fragile; Middle East tensions may dominate market trends in 2026

According to Cointelegraph, Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau and a cryptocurrency market analyst, stated that Bitcoin’s current recovery is fragile. Geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict will dominate market trends in Q2 2026, with rate cuts not expected until Q3 or Q4 at the earliest. He noted that for BTC to reach $90,000, three conditions must simultaneously be met: easing geopolitical tensions, oil prices falling back to around $80 per barrel, and weakening economic data. BTC is currently trading at approximately $71,276, facing resistance near $74,000 and still trading below its 200-day exponential moving average. Earlier, on April 6, BTC briefly rose above $73,000 but subsequently declined following the collapse of U.S.-Iran negotiations and former U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. There remains disagreement within the Federal Reserve’s FOMC regarding interest rate cuts in 2026; CME FedWatch data shows over a 98% probability that rates will be held steady at both the April 29 and June 17 meetings.