Nomura Securities: May Package Substrate Shipments Up 36% YoY to Hit Record High, Rubin Mass Production and HBM4 Technology Roadmap Become Focus

According to TechFlow Research, on July 14, 2026, Nomura Securities released a research report citing data from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Japan's packaging substrate shipment value in May reached 27.8 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 36%, hitting a record high; shipment area increased by 10%, and the average price rose 23% to 1.356 million yen per square meter. The report pointed out that NVIDIA Rubin packaging demand will ramp up this summer (at latest by August), but the variable worth paying more attention to is that Rubin Ultra may shift from a four-die structure to a dual-module structure, as well as the large interposer integration challenges brought by HBM4 wiring upgrades. Intel released EMIB-T technology at ECTC, expected to complete mass production readiness in 2026, capable of integrating up to 12 HBM4 units under an interposer-less solution, with power supply voltage drop improved by 68-80% compared to EMIB; TSMC maintains its lead relying on 3DFabric Alliance and advantages in power delivery and heat dissipation. Nomura Securities believes that the core battlefield of the next-generation packaging competition lies in power delivery, heat dissipation, CPO, and 3D hybrid bonding, and excess returns in the packaging substrate industry will come from the ability to bind to customer technology roadmaps.