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Bitcoin has fallen below the $77,000 mark, hitting a low of approximately $76,720. Analysts attribute the market decline primarily to multiple macroeconomic pressures, including the renewed escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, rising inflation concerns, and increased risk aversion across risk assets. Former US President Donald Trump issued a strong warning to Iran on social media, intensifying geopolitical uncertainty.Meanwhile, rising oil prices have further elevated inflation expectations, with Brent crude climbing to around $111 and WTI rising above $107. This has sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.The current selling pressure is also compounded by factors such as rising US Treasury yields, a strengthening US dollar, and ETF outflows. Data shows that Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1 billion in the week ending May 17, ending six consecutive weeks of net inflows.In terms of market sentiment, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has fallen back to 27, re-entering the "fear zone." Analysts believe that short-term trends will remain highly dependent on macroeconomic data and policy expectations. However, some institutions view the current correction as a "healthy digestion" period, suggesting the long-term structure remains unchanged. (The Block)
: Analyst Murphy posted on X platform, stating that based on the relationship between the "1-3 month short-term holder cost basis (1-3m_RP)" and price action, Bitcoin may currently be in the formation stage of a bottom structure.Murphy pointed out that previous bear market bottoms were accompanied by BTC breaking through and trading around the 1-3m_RP cost basis line, but the patterns differed across cycles: In 2015-2016, BTC oscillated around this cost basis line for an extended period; in 2019-2020, it directly triggered a mini bull run after the breakout; in 2022-2023, it experienced a second retest to confirm support before rebounding again.Murphy stated that since BTC broke through this cost basis line on April 15, it has continued to trade above it. Regarding future trends, he believes the focus is not on predicting specific scenarios, but rather on preparing position and trading response plans for different market situations in advance.
on-chain analyst Yujin posted on Platform X, stating that current market trading enthusiasm is now much lower than it was at the bottom of the last bear market (December 2022). This is despite the fact that prices of several major cryptocurrencies are still far higher than they were at that time.BTC: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume for BTC/USDT on Binance was around $20 billion. Now it is only about $5 billion. The current price is 4.5 times higher than the previous bottom. The correction magnitude last cycle was -75%, while from the peak to now in this cycle, it is -38%.ETH: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume for ETH/USDT was around $4 billion. Now it is only about $2 billion. The current price is 1.7 times higher than the previous bottom. The correction magnitude last cycle was -75%, while from the peak to now in this cycle, it is -54%.BNB: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume for BNB/USDT was around $50 million. Now it is roughly at the same level. The current price is 2.7 times higher than the previous bottom. The correction magnitude last cycle was -65%, while from the peak to now in this cycle, it is -50%.
: On-chain analyst Tom Wan stated on platform X that the current ETH utilization rate has dropped below 90%, and the lending APY has fallen to 1.9%. Since the rsETH LayerZero cross-chain bridge was attacked, the deposits of wstETH and weETH have decreased by approximately $1.2 billion and $1.76 billion, respectively. As the strategy of leveraged looping wstETH/weETH against ETH becomes profitable again, market attention is turning to whether demand for ETH leveraged loops will return, or if capital will continue to wait on the sidelines or flow into protocols like Spark and Morpho.
According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), “Brother Maji” opened a new long position of 1,825 ETH—valued at approximately $3.87 million—after being liquidated; the liquidation price is $2,086.69.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, address 0xB4d…B186a has sold another $15.46 million worth of WBTC, having accumulated a total of $35.73 million in token sales over the past three days. This address has frequent interactions with block builder Titan builder and currently holds $125 million in assets on-chain, 95% of which are ETH and WBTC, suggesting potential continued selling pressure.
crypto research firm 10x Research stated that since the release of US CPI data on May 13th, Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows exceeding $1 billion, reigniting "inflation trade" sentiment in the market. Market sentiment indicators have dropped from 87% to 45%. Meanwhile, long-term US Treasury yields continue to climb, with the 30-year yield rising to 5.12%. As inflation returns to the forefront of market focus, the crypto market is facing significant headwinds.Furthermore, 10x Research noted that its models have triggered bearish signals for Ethereum, and Bitcoin is currently testing the key support level of its 30-day moving average. A confirmed breakdown below this level could signal further momentum deterioration. The firm is closely watching the short-term bull/bear line at $79,125 and the major support level at $76,922, suggesting that the bottom for this cycle may have already formed.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, a smart money address that initially accumulated 11,004 ETH in 2016 at an average price of $3.45, yielding a profit of $30.38 million, has purchased a total of 5,283.61 ETH on-chain over the past two days, valued at $11.48 million. The average cost is $2,172.7, with an unrealized loss of $320,000.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale's 10x leveraged HYPE short position is now showing an unrealized loss of $1.26 million, with the position currently holding approximately 375,033 HYPE, valued at $17.5 million.
According to Binance Research (@BinanceResearch), four on-chain metrics currently converge to indicate a sustained tightening of Bitcoin supply and an exhaustion of selling pressure: ① Nearly 60% of BTC supply has remained unmoved for over one year, with the supply dormancy rate holding at a historical high; ② The SLRV ratio is deep in its historical bottom range, indicating long-term holders dominate supply while short-term speculators have largely exited the market; ③ Exchange BTC balances have declined from their COVID-era peak of 17.6% to the current 15.0%, with approximately 500,000 BTC permanently flowing out of exchanges—resulting in the available seller supply hitting a six-year low; ④ BTC short-term holder MVRV has remained persistently below 1.0 since November 2024, continuously eroding selling pressure; recently, it has rebounded above 1.0, signaling that short-term holders are beginning to rebuild unrealized profits. Binance Research believes this combination of signals closely aligns with historical cycle bottom characteristics.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated Bitcoin has recently attempted to breach the $82,000 level three times, but each time it has faced a pullback. During each rebound, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are taking advantage of the uptrend to continuously exit with profits, rather than continuing to hold positions. Currently, $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also an important selling pressure zone from a market behavior perspective, having formed a strong supply zone.
according to Onchain Lens monitoring, whale Evaded has opened 10x leveraged long positions on ZEC and HYPE. The current portfolio holds 36,875 ZEC and 87,000 HYPE, valued at $24 million.
on Lookonchain monitoring that a BIT-related whale added to its ETH long position during the market downturn. The position now holds 120,000 ETH, valued at $254 million, with an unrealized loss of $17.5 million.
on-chain analyst Specter stated that the hijacking incidents of investor Keith Gill, Matt Furie, and WinRAR accounts on the X platform are all linked to the same hacker organization. This organization has accumulated over $14 million in profits by hijacking accounts to promote tokens and conducting cross-chain money laundering, with funds flowing through five chains: Solana, BNB Chain, Ethereum, Tron, and Hyperliquid.Specter claims the organization may also be connected to a $2.45 million wstETH phishing attack in 2024. The investigation found that hackers used compromised accounts to issue Pepe imitation tokens, incorporating a built-in 2% automatic fee mechanism to generate profits; related fund flows are associated with the bnbshare.fun platform and multiple Solana, Tron, and Ethereum addresses. Analysis also showed that several tokens (including USOR, VDOR, DROID, WCOR, UGOR) were used to inflate market caps before being dumped to zero.
that, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, the ShapeShift mystery whale spent 5.68 million USDC to purchase 2,656 ETH, and currently holds 129,667 ETH, worth $274.78 million.
According to on-chain analyst “Aunt Ai,” a major short position holder who initially shorted 300,000 HYPE tokens has added another 75,000 HYPE to their short position tonight. Their current total short position now stands at 375,033 HYPE, valued at $16.02 million, with an average entry price of $43.298 per token and a floating profit of $225,000.
, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on platform X stating that through Options Terminal analysis of the weekend market, it was found that large funds mainly engaged in three types of operations:Selling near-term gamma and near-month volatility;Buying downside protection for medium-to-long-term tenors, or constructing defensive structures such as put fly and collar;Conducting pin and roll operations around the $79,000 to $80,000 range.He stated that the current market does not support chasing short positions, and the decline has not caused market concern, with whales expecting short-term consolidation.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin has recently attempted to break above the $82,000 level three times—but each time failed and retreated. Data shows that during each rally, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are consistently taking profits amid upward price movements rather than holding onto their positions. Axel Adler notes that $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also a significant zone of selling pressure from a market-behavior perspective. Currently, this level coincides with Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (200D SMA). Until the 7-day SMA of STH-SOPR sustains above 1.0 for several consecutive days—and until Bitcoin’s daily closing price decisively breaks above its 200-day SMA—the ongoing rally may still be viewed as a selling opportunity. On the macro front, escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to dampen market risk appetite. Fueled by the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and expectations of “higher-for-longer” interest rates, U.S. equities closed lower across the board on Friday. WTI crude oil futures surged over 4%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to approximately 4.6%, hitting a year-to-date high.
Odaily Odaily News: Analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on X platform, stating that Bitcoin has been rejected at $82,000 again, marking the third failure at this level. The short-term holder SOPR indicator has still failed to stay above 1.0, indicating that short-term holders continue to sell during each rally. Currently, crude oil is near $106, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 537 points, and interest rates face the risk of remaining elevated for a prolonged period.
Cardano whales currently hold nearly 67% of ADA's total supply, the highest level of concentration since 2020. (Cointelegraph)