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Analysis: Bitcoin Falls Back Below $81,000 After Failing to Break the 200-Day Moving Average, Historical Trend Sparks Market Caution

Bitcoin briefly approached the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $83,300 on Wednesday but failed to achieve a decisive breakout, subsequently falling back below $81,000. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market weakened, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Index falling over 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the worst-performing major sector. The 200-day moving average is widely regarded by the market as a key indicator for measuring long-term trends. If BTC can hold above this level, it would further reinforce the market narrative that the bear market, which saw prices fall below $63,000 in February, has ended and a new bull market has begun.However, a similar situation occurred historically in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke above and tested the 200-day moving average before ultimately falling to around $20,000 by June of that year. As a result, some analysts are warning of the risk of a "fakeout."Analytics firm Marex stated that Bitcoin's ability to continue its upward trajectory depends on three factors: sustained spot buying pressure, a continued tightening of exchange supply, and a derivatives market that remains healthy without overheating. If all three factors align positively, Bitcoin could quickly open up the path towards the $85,000 range. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, noted that this pullback appears more like a brief consolidation within an uptrend rather than an end to the trend. However, he also cautioned that the daily RSI had previously entered overbought territory, and similar instances in the past were accompanied by significant corrections.Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen to 4.32% from its early-month high of 4.46%, which is viewed as a potential positive factor for risk assets. (CoinDesk)

A newly created wallet withdrew 2,500 BTC from Binance, worth approximately $200 million.

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), a newly created wallet withdrew 2,500 BTC from Binance, valued at approximately $202.36 million.

HyperLiquid whale Loracle.hl currently holds unrealized profits exceeding $8.55 million, with cumulative profits of approximately $36 million.

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), HyperLiquid whale Loracle.hl currently holds unrealized profits exceeding $8.55 million, with cumulative profits totaling approximately $36 million. Two hours ago, the whale closed a short position on BRENTOIL, realizing profits of over $991,000. Its current positions include: - Long ZEC (10x leverage): $5.9 million unrealized profit - Long TON (5x leverage): $1.88 million unrealized profit - Short CL (10x leverage): $1.8 million unrealized profit - Long BTC (20x leverage): $834,000 unrealized profit - Short HYPE: $1.47 million unrealized loss

HashKey Exchange Launches Limited-Time RLUSD Deposit Rewards and Fee Discount Campaign

According to an official announcement by HashKey, HashKey Exchange—a licensed virtual asset exchange operated by Hong Kong-listed HashKey Holdings Limited (3887.HK)—has launched a time-limited RLUSD deposit reward program and RLUSD withdrawal fee discount following the official listing of Ripple USD (RLUSD) on its platform on February 13, 2026. This promotion is available for a limited time only and is exclusively open to eligible professional investors. **Promotion 1: RLUSD Deposit Reward Program** From now until May 22, 2026, customers who deposit RLUSD into their HashKey Exchange accounts—meeting or exceeding the minimum amount required for their chosen tier—and maintain the corresponding RLUSD account balance through June 23, 2026, will receive the applicable reward. Rewards are capped at up to 25,000 RLUSD and are allocated on a first-come, first-served basis. **Promotion 2: RLUSD Withdrawal Fee Discount** Withdrawals of RLUSD via the Ethereum (ERC-20) network completed before May 30, 2026, will incur zero withdrawal fees. For full details—including eligibility criteria, reward tiers, balance maintenance requirements, reward quota limits, scope of fee discounts, and other applicable terms and conditions—please refer to the official HashKey Exchange campaign page.

Bitget CandyBomb: 600,000 KAIO tokens unlocked for perpetual contract trading

Bitget has launched a new edition of CandyBomb with a total prize pool of 600,000 KAIO tokens. New users can earn up to 6,000 KAIO each by completing tasks such as net deposits and futures trading. Detailed rules have been published on the official Bitget platform. Eligible users must click the “Join Now” button to register in order to participate. The campaign ends on May 13 at 21:00 (UTC+8).

A wallet疑似 linked to Matrixport deposited 403,300 HYPE tokens into Hyperliquid, valued at approximately $17.4 million.

According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a wallet疑似 linked to Matrixport deposited 403,289.5 HYPE tokens into Hyperliquid four hours ago—valued at approximately $17.4 million—and has since begun selling them. To date, this address has sold 100,000 HYPE tokens, receiving 4.24 million USDC in return.

A whale spent $325,000 to buy Sato, with an average market cap of $28.4 million at entry

According to Odaily monitoring, a whale began accumulating Sato three hours ago, purchasing a total of $325,000 worth at an average market cap of $28.4 million, currently showing an unrealized profit of $32,000.

Matrixport-affiliated wallet sells 100,000 HYPE tokens, cashing out approximately $4.238 million

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), a wallet associated with Matrixport deposited 403,290 $HYPE tokens (approximately $17.3 million) into HyperLiquid, then immediately sold 100,000 of them at an average price of $42.38, realizing approximately $4.238 million in USDC. The wallet currently still holds 303,290 $HYPE tokens (approximately $13 million).

Analysis: Tripartite Signal Convergence—On-Chain Data, Futures, and Options—Suggests BTC May Rally to $85,000

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen from approximately $63,000 to over $80,000 in the past three months, with multiple key indicators now converging on an $85,000 target. On-chain, BTC has broken above two critical support levels—the “Realized Market Value” ($78,200) and the “Short-Term Holder Cost Basis” ($79,100). Research firm Glassnode notes that the next resistance level lies near the Active Realized Price of $85,200. In the futures market, funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral, signaling a clear retreat of prior large-scale short pressure and rising risk of a short squeeze. In the options market, market makers hold roughly $2 billion in “short gamma” exposure near $82,000; rising prices will compel them to continuously hedge by buying BTC, generating positive feedback. However, analysts caution that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with U.S. tech equities—should equity markets shift toward risk-aversion, upward momentum could be dampened.

Meme token $SATO enters its second rally; top trader has already realized a profit of $398,000

According to on-chain analyst Ai Aunt (@ai_9684xtpa), the meme token $SATO has entered its second rally, with its market cap surging from under $3 million to over $40 million. Notably, top-tier participants in this rally accumulated positions逆势 during the prior downtrend—directly purchasing via the $SATO bonding curve—causing data tools like GMGN to fail displaying their true acquisition costs. On-chain data reveals the current top holders as follows: • #1 runecrypto.eth: Accumulated between May 6–7, spending 34.7 ETH to buy 375,046 $SATO tokens at an average price of ~$0.2186; current unrealized profit ≈ $398,000 • #2 0x313…6ABAe: Accumulated between May 5–7, spending 35 ETH to buy 350,000 $SATO tokens at an average price of ~$0.2363; current unrealized profit ≈ $365,000 • #3 0x7F5…c8F2d: Accumulated between May 4–7, holding 260,969 $SATO tokens

B.AI Surpasses 1.7 Million Users; Multi-Tier Benefits Reshape the Intelligent Agent Infrastructure Landscape

B.AI, an AI infrastructure platform, announced on May 7 that its user base has officially surpassed 1.7 million. As an innovative force dedicated to building core infrastructure for privacy-preserving, intelligent-routing, and Agent-economy solutions, B.AI is accelerating the execution-layer development of autonomous intelligence at scale through major benefits—including zero markup across all models, 500,000 free credits upon new user registration, and a limited-time 1:1 top-up bonus—slashing costs by 50%. Driven by technological innovation and unbeatable cost-effectiveness, B.AI will continue collaborating with its one-million-strong user community to build an efficient, secure execution layer for autonomous intelligence and jointly advance into the new Agent ecosystem.

HyperLabs Transfers $17.34 Million Worth of HYPE to Exchanges, Likely Selling

According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), HyperLabs unstaked 421,879 $HYPE tokens (approximately $18.08 million) two days ago and subsequently deposited a total of 400,000 $HYPE tokens (approximately $17.34 million) to Bybit and OKX within the following 11 hours.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $45.85 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled $45.85 million. BlackRock’s $IBIT led with $134 million in inflows, while most other products performed poorly: Fidelity’s $FBTC saw outflows of $38.95 million, Bitwise’s $BITB recorded $25.18 million in outflows, Grayscale’s $GBTC experienced $17.1 million in outflows, and Franklin Templeton’s $EZBC had $7.05 million in outflows. Meanwhile, products from Morgan Stanley, Ark Invest, Invesco, and VanEck all registered zero net flows for the day.

Band Address nemorino.eth Purchased 2,091.43 ETH, Worth Approximately $5 Million

According to on-chain analyst Ai Aunt (@ai_9684xtpa), the swing trading address nemorino.eth purchased 2,091.43 ETH at an average price of $2,386.78 during the market downturn 12 hours ago—valued at approximately $5 million—and has since deposited the assets into the Spark Protocol to earn interest.

PENGU token deployment address transferred out 137 million PENGU tokens, of which 100 million were sent to multiple exchanges.

According to on-chain analyst Yujin’s monitoring, after 100 million PENGU tokens (valued at $1.08 million) were transferred from the Pudgy Penguins token deployment address to centralized exchanges, the PENGU price dropped 7% from $0.01147 to $0.0106. Six hours ago, the PENGU token deployment address transferred out 137 million PENGU tokens (valued at $1.5 million), of which 100 million PENGU tokens (valued at $1.08 million) were sent to multiple exchanges including OKX.

A Paradigm Capital-associated address likely transferred 11,600 ETH to FalconX, worth approximately $27.29 million

According to Lookonchain monitoring, four wallets suspected to be associated with Paradigm Capital transferred 11,615 ETH, worth approximately $27.29 million, to FalconX about 3 hours ago.

A new wallet opened a 20x-leveraged short position on 240,000 SOL, with a liquidation price of $90.85.

According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a newly created wallet (0x128e) opened a 20x leveraged short position on Hyperliquid, shorting 240,000 SOL tokens with a notional value of approximately $21.36 million; the liquidation price is $90.85.

Aave has completed the liquidation of the rsETH attacker’s positions, and the related assets have been transferred to the Recovery Guardian address.

Aave stated that, per the previously disclosed technical recovery plan, the attacker’s rsETH positions on Ethereum and Arbitrum have been liquidated on Aave, and the associated collateral assets have now been transferred to the Recovery Guardian address designated by the AIP. Aave noted that this action did not impact other users, nor did it affect the Umbrella mechanism, and emphasized that this step is a critical milestone in the overall recovery roadmap, with further recovery efforts continuing as planned.

Aave has liquidated the remaining rsETH position of the KelpDAO attacker, with the relevant assets to be transferred to a recovery treasury.

Aave has announced the completion of the liquidation of the remaining rsETH position belonging to the Kelp DAO attacker. The related collateral assets will be transferred to the Recovery Guardian multi-signature wallet managed by DeFi United, to be used for restoring rsETH reserves and compensating affected users.This liquidation is part of the recovery plan following the previous $292 million attack incident. Aave had previously passed a governance vote to temporarily adjust the rsETH oracle price in order to create bad debt in the attacker's position and trigger liquidation. The relevant parameters will be restored upon completion of the liquidation. Previously, the attacker exploited the Kelp DAO cross-chain bridge based on LayerZero to forge 116,500 unbacked rsETH and borrowed ETH from protocols such as Aave and Compound. Currently, the recovery funds managed by DeFi United have exceeded $320 million.

Hyperliquid whale long positions hit a new year-to-date high, market sentiment leaning bullish

on-chain data platform Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin whales' net long positions on Hyperliquid have reached a new high for 2026.Data shows that whales have been continuously increasing their long positions recently, continuing the bullish trend that followed last month's Bitcoin price breakout. The total whale positions on the platform currently stand at approximately $3.5 billion, with long positions slightly exceeding shorts.Analysts believe that the movement of Hyperliquid whales is often viewed as a market sentiment indicator. The current overall liquidation scale is relatively low and is mainly concentrated in short positions, reflecting a bullish market atmosphere.